4709 Randall Rd · Orange, TX 77632

$139,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,920 sqft · SingleFamily · 99 Days on market

Built 2023 0.50 ac lot $73/sqft · 58% below area ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to peaceful country living! This 2019 manufactured home sits on a spacious half acre just outside of the city limits! Inside the home feels just like new! The interior features modern finishes and today's trending styles throughout the home! The living area is massive with a built-in entertainment center. The kitchen island is heart of the kitchen and is fully equipped with stainless steel appliances, while the spacious laundry room features a convenient utility sink and plenty room for storage. You will love the primary suite with the extra built-in space the closet has to offer and the relaxing garden tub! So many wonderful features for such an amazing price! The stylish cabinetry, updated fixtures, and neutral color palette that makes this home move in ready!

Key facts

• Primary suite
• Spacious half acre
• Kitchen island

Tags

• SPACIOUS HALF ACRE
• BUILT IN ENTERTAINMENT CENTER
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• UTILITY SINK
• PRIMARY SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $127 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.9% in Orange — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#286 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, schools D-.
• Little Cypress-Mauriceville CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #435 of 826 in TX (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 294 active listings in the ZIP; 235 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,309 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.92%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $330,000
• List price: $139,900
• Delta: -53.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-14,538
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-2,015
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77632

• Home prices YoY: -31.6%
• Active inventory: 294
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,468 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$175 /mo · $2,098/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $127

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,308

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   price $139,900 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 98 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 97 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 96 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $155,000 Active 94 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 93 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $155,000 Active 91 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active 90 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $155,000 Active 89 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $155,000 Active 88 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,000 Active 84 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 83 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 82 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 81 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $155,000 Active 80 DOM
17. 2026-05-18
    price $155,000 785-char remark

    Show marketing remark (785 chars)

    Welcome home to peaceful country living! This 2019 manufactured home sits on a spacious half acre just outside of the city limits! Inside the home feels just like new! The interior features modern finishes and today's trending styles throughout the home! The living area is massive with a built-in entertainment center. The kitchen island is heart of the kitchen and is fully equipped with stainless steel appliances, while the spacious laundry room features a convenient utility sink and plenty room for storage. You will love the primary suite with the extra built-in space the closet has to offer and the relaxing garden tub! So many wonderful features for such an amazing price! The stylish cabinetry, updated fixtures, and neutral color palette that makes this home move in ready!

18. 2026-03-11
    listed $159,900 Active 785-char remark

    Show marketing remark (785 chars)

    Welcome home to peaceful country living! This 2019 manufactured home sits on a spacious half acre just outside of the city limits! Inside the home feels just like new! The interior features modern finishes and today's trending styles throughout the home! The living area is massive with a built-in entertainment center. The kitchen island is heart of the kitchen and is fully equipped with stainless steel appliances, while the spacious laundry room features a convenient utility sink and plenty room for storage. You will love the primary suite with the extra built-in space the closet has to offer and the relaxing garden tub! So many wonderful features for such an amazing price! The stylish cabinetry, updated fixtures, and neutral color palette that makes this home move in ready!

19. 2019-03-11
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,620
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$2,098
• − Insurance: −$1,497
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,410
• − Management: −$1,410
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$701
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$168
• After-tax cash flow: $1,689/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Little Cypress-Mauriceville CISD
• NCES district ID: 4827690
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,483
• Composite: 33.41/100
• National rank: #5473
• State rank: #435 of 826 in TX

Livability — Orange

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #286
• US rank: #6456

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 87,112 people
• City population: 22,976
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,976
• Household income: $74,418
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 431.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,065 people
• By 2030: 89,591 · +1.7%
• By 2040: 91,982 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 93,023 · +5.6%
• By 2075: 94,871 · +7.7%
• By 2100: 88,155 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.8) · D 16.4% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.6pp toward R · 2008: -47.1pp · 2024: -66.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.8 2020: R+63.4 2016: R+61.9 2012: R+54.3 2008: R+47.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -68.96%
• Current HPI: 149.354
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $155,000 BBOR
• 2026-03-11 Listed $159,900 BBOR
• 2019-03-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-11.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $121 · -2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.