404 N Hill St · Itasca, TX 76055

$114,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily · 96 Days on market

Built 1920 Good condition 7,318 sqft lot $111/sqft · 36% below area Est $178k · 36% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home at an affordable price? Check! Just enough room for a first-time homebuyer 2-bedroom, 1-bath with just under 1,100 sq ft? Check! Located within the USDA loan availability area, so you can see if you’re approved for ZERO DOWN and a lower interest rate? Check! Move in ready? Check! With this place checking so many boxes; should you wait any longer to write an offer? NOPE! Remodel in 2026, New Paint, Refinished Original Hard Wood Floors, New Light Fixtures, Ceiling Fans with Remotes… the list is long! Don’t miss out on this great opportunity. Enjoy small-town country living with Schools (grades 1-12) within walking distance. Cute Downtown area with Shopping, Restaurants, and Community Festivities right down the street. Yet convenient access to I-35 for an easy commute to DFW or Waco, without the DFW or Waco price tag!

Key facts

• Remodel in 2026
• New light fixtures
• 7,318 sq ft lot

Tags

• REMODEL IN 2026
• NEW LIGHT FIXTURES
• CEILING FANS WITH REMOTES
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO I-35

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $426 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $105k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 5.7% in Itasca — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#832 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Itasca ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #636 of 826 in TX (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Itasca El (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 295 students, 74% FRL); Itasca Middle (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #971 of 1,662 statewide, top 60%, 164 students, 62% FRL); Itasca H S (math 15% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,106 of 1,632 statewide, top 68%, 192 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 65% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 140d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 83% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 65 units permitted in Hill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($795 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hill County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $104,649 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.89%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $178,371
• List price: $114,999
• Delta: -35.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
206 S King St Unit B	0.40mi	2/1.0	984 (-5%)	16mo	$85,000	$86	59
207 E South St	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,245 (+20%)	0mo	$210,000	$169	48
602 S Aquilla St	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,086 (+4%)	7mo	$230,000	$212	46
404 S College St	0.61mi	2/1.0	936 (-10%)	12mo	$39,900	$43	44
612 S Aquilla St	0.78mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (+8%)	0mo	$165,000	$147	43
301 S Lamar St	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,220 (+17%)	8mo	$244,900	$201	40
104 S College St	0.44mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,232 (+18%)	12mo	$99,999	$81	40
604 S Aquilla St	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,215 (+17%)	4mo	$245,000	$202	31
112 Grayson Dr	0.86mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (+11%)	10mo	$239,900	$208	30
303 S Lamar	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,220 (+17%)	22mo	$269,999	$221	29
102 Allie Ct	0.88mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+15%)	18mo	$235,000	$196	16

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.79×
• Total profit: $89,804
• Equity at exit: $103,600

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.0%
• Equity multiple: 8.55×
• Total profit: $243,153
• Equity at exit: $223,418

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 11 active · 7 under contract
• Months of supply: 22.0 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $189,900 ($151/sqft)
• Median days on market: 105 d
• This list price: 18% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +13.9% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76055

• Home prices YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 112
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,546 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$144 /mo · $1,725/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $426

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,006

Max offer price $114,999

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $506	-5% $466	+0% $426	+5% $387	+10% $347
Rent	-10% $304	-5% $365	+0% $426	+5% $487	+10% $548
Rate	-1.0pp $484	-0.5pp $456	base $426	+0.5pp $396	+1.0pp $366

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
106 W Adams St Itasca, TX	3.0	2.0	1174	$1,650	$1.41	139d	1	0.29mi
108 E Adams St Itasca, TX	3.0	2.0	1188	$1,650	$1.39	139d	1	0.32mi
202 E Henderson St Itasca, TX	3.0	2.0	1485	$1,750	$1.18	73d	1	0.38mi
107 E Marrion St Unit 4 Itasca, TX	2.0	1.0	720	$875	$1.22	139d	1	0.52mi
111 Minnie Dr Itasca, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,775	$1.42	139d	1	0.78mi
808 Mill St Itasca, TX	2.0	1.0	794	$1,095	$1.38	1d	1	1.05mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Horses allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carportAttached private drivewaySpace for 10 vehicles (total)
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector(s)Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectricity connectedNatural gas connectedCable availablePhone available
• Home design: Single‑story homeFaces northwestUpdated/remodeledHas a viewFlag lot
• Construction: Metal roofWood sidingPillar/post/pier foundationBuilt according to public records
• Exterior features: Private yardBack yard fencingFront porch (covered)

Interior

• Kitchen: Free‑standing gas rangeFree‑standing refrigeratorGas range
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Wood floors
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace heatingCeiling fans for coolingWall/window air unit(s)Zoned cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fansNatural woodworkWindow features — see remarksAccessibility features — see remarks
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $114,999 Active 96 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $114,999 Active 95 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $114,999 Active 93 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $114,999 Active 92 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $114,999 Active 90 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $114,999 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $114,999 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $114,999 Active 87 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $114,999 Active 86 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $114,999 Active 85 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $114,999 Active 84 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $114,999 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $114,999 Active 77 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $114,999 Active 76 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $114,999 Active 75 DOM
16. 2026-09-02
    pricedays on market $114,999 Active 74 DOM
17. 2026-08-29
    days on market $119,999 Active 70 DOM
18. 2026-08-28
    days on market $119,999 Active 69 DOM
19. 2026-08-27
    days on market $119,999 Active 68 DOM
20. 2026-08-26
    days on market $119,999 Active 67 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $119,999 Active 66 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $119,999 Active 65 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $119,999 Active 64 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $119,999 Active 63 DOM
25. 2026-08-21
    days on market $119,999 Active 62 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    days on market $119,999 Active 61 DOM
27. 2026-08-19
    pricedays on market $119,999 Active 60 DOM
28. 2026-08-18
    days on market $124,999 Active 59 DOM
29. 2026-08-17
    days on market $124,999 Active 58 DOM
30. 2026-08-16
    days on market $124,999 Active 57 DOM
31. 2026-08-15
    days on market $124,999 Active 56 DOM
32. 2026-08-14
    days on market $124,999 Active 55 DOM
33. 2026-08-13
    days on market $124,999 Active 54 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $124,999 Active 53 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    remarks 681-char remark
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $124,999 Active 52 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $124,999 Active 51 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $124,999 Active 50 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $124,999 Active 49 DOM
40. 2026-08-07
    days on market $124,999 Active 48 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $124,999 Active 47 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $124,999 Active 46 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $124,999 Active 45 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $124,999 Active 44 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $124,999 Active 41 DOM
46. 2026-07-29
    pricedays on market $124,999 Active 39 DOM
47. 2026-07-27
    days on market $129,999 Active 37 DOM
48. 2026-07-25
    days on market $129,999 Active 35 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $129,999 Active 34 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $129,999 Active 33 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,547
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,725
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,484
• − Management: −$1,484
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $3,492
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$838
• After-tax cash flow: $4,277/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,200–$15,600 screening

This single-family home is in good condition with recent updates, making it move-in ready and suitable for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting and updating the kitchen and bathroom — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — Improves comfort and energy efficiency. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's overall appearance and appeal to potential buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 29/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Itasca El F TX #3,052/4,322 Nat'l #30,133/41,679 Middle Itasca Middle F TX #971/1,662 Nat'l #8,317/14,009 High Itasca H S F TX #1,106/1,632 Nat'l #11,077/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Itasca ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824480
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $49,224
• Composite: 25.26/100
• National rank: #7499
• State rank: #636 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Itasca

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #832
• US rank: #14977

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Itasca, TX
• County: Hill · 34,013 people
• City population: 3,719
• Population (ZIP): 3,719
• Household income: $77,627
• Rent vs Own: 15.5% rent · 84.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 13% of renters

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Population outlook (Hill County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,013 people
• By 2030: 33,289 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 31,688 · -6.8%
• By 2050: 30,100 · -11.5%
• By 2075: 26,818 · -21.2%
• By 2100: 22,918 · -32.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 9% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% German/W. Germanic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hill

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.4) · D 17.5% · R 81.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.0pp toward R · 2008: -41.4pp · 2024: -64.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.4 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+53.0 2008: R+41.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.37%
• Current HPI: 264.5221
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Horses allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carportAttached private drivewaySpace for 10 vehicles (total)
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector(s)Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectricity connectedNatural gas connectedCable availablePhone available
• Home design: Single‑story homeFaces northwestUpdated/remodeledHas a viewFlag lot
• Construction: Metal roofWood sidingPillar/post/pier foundationBuilt according to public records
• Exterior features: Private yardBack yard fencingFront porch (covered)

Interior

• Kitchen: Free‑standing gas rangeFree‑standing refrigeratorGas range
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Wood floors
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace heatingCeiling fans for coolingWall/window air unit(s)Zoned cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fansNatural woodworkWindow features — see remarksAccessibility features — see remarks
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Price history

-7.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-07-13 Price Changed $129,999 NTREIS
• 2026-07-13 Price Changed $129,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-06-20 Listed $139,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-06-20 Listed $139,999 NTREIS