27701 Murrieta Rd #37 · Menifee, CA 92586

$155,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 277 Days on market

Built 1990 $124/sqft · 55% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a beautifully upgraded two bedroom home with an enclosed lanai area to add extra living space or entertaining space on the left side of the home. This lot has two carports and an extended driveway with a detached shed and located in the back of the park with no rear neighbors! Visitor parking is right across the road and it's just a quick walk to the clubhouse and pool area to enjoy the amenities that Hillside Mobile Estates has to offer! Besides having lovely curb appeal, this gorgeous home has LVP floor installed just 3 years ago, painted 3 years ago, newer ceiling fans throughout, and an upgraded and spacious kitchen that includes a pantry and granite countertops! The guest bathroom has an upgraded vanity and primary bedroom is huge with connected en-suite bathroom. The space rent is low for this unit and also includes trash and water for convenience and affordability! Don't miss out on this beautiful home!

Key facts

• Visitor parking
• No rear neighbors
• Enclosed lanai area

Tags

• ENCLOSED LANAI AREA
• DETACHED SHED
• NO REAR NEIGHBORS
• VISITOR PARKING
• QUICK WALK TO CLUBHOUSE
• QUICK WALK TO POOL AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $774 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 3.6% in Menifee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#407 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A-; Watch: schools D+, health & safety D+, amenities D.
• Menifee Union Elementary (suburban): math 43% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #434 of 1,400 in CA (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 197 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 277 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $155k implies a 121% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 277 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.40%
• DSCR: 1.95
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $100,000
• List price: $155,000
• Delta: 55.00%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27701 Murrieta #247	0.00mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (0%)	3mo	$70,000	$56	88
27701 Murrieta Rd #255	0.00mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+8%)	0mo	$45,000	$33	78
27701 Murrieta Rd, SPACE #257	0.00mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+8%)	4mo	$99,000	$74	75
27701 Murrieta Rd #246	0.04mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+8%)	3mo	$70,000	$52	74
27701 Murrieta Rd #226	0.00mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+8%)	8mo	$103,500	$77	71
27701 Murrieta Rd	0.07mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+8%)	8mo	$93,200	$69	68
27250 Murrieta Rd #191	0.60mi	1/2.0	1,272 (+2%)	8mo	$115,000	$90	58
27250 Murrieta Rd #216	0.60mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (+4%)	2mo	$110,000	$85	55
27250 Murrieta Rd #359	0.60mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,320 (+6%)	1mo	$55,000	$42	52
27250 Murrieta Rd #378	0.60mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,150 (-8%)	3mo	$90,000	$78	47
27250 Murrieta Rd #266	0.73mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (-4%)	9mo	$134,000	$112	43
27250 Murrieta Rd #231	0.60mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,356 (+9%)	8mo	$160,000	$118	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $30,940
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.77×
• Total profit: $120,006
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92586

• Home prices YoY: -19.1%
• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 197
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,124 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$27 /mo · $319/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $774

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,144

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $862	-5% $818	+0% $774	+5% $553	+10% $500
Rent	-10% $606	-5% $690	+0% $774	+5% $858	+10% $942
Rate	-1.0pp $852	-0.5pp $813	base $774	+0.5pp $734	+1.0pp $693

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25861 McCall Blvd Menifee, CA	2.0	2.0	1378	$2,350	$1.71	0d	1	0.27mi
29196 Crestone Dr Sun City, CA	2.0	2.0	1393	$1,995	$1.43	0d	1	0.39mi
26156 Birkdale Rd Menifee, CA	2.0	2.0	1285	$2,000	$1.56	2d	1	0.49mi
28375 Paseo Grande Dr Menifee, CA	2.0	2.0	1285	$2,395	$1.86	0d	1	0.54mi
26217 Birkdale Rd Menifee, CA	1.0	1.0	876	$2,150	$2.45	0d	1	0.55mi
28323 Murrieta Rd Menifee, CA	2.0	2.0	1098	$2,350	$2.14	20d	1	0.59mi
27051 Sun City Blvd Unit 1 Menifee, CA	2.0	1.0	729	$1,975	$2.71	0d	1	0.97mi
28880 Amersfoot Way Menifee, CA	2.0	2.0	1386	$2,400	$1.73	0d	1	1.14mi
28894 Portsmouth Dr Menifee, CA	2.0	2.0	1500	$2,400	$1.60	0d	1	1.18mi
28244 Encanto Dr Menifee, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$2,300	$2.56	0d	1	1.36mi
28301 Encanto Dr Unit 10 Menifee, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$2,200	$2.44	18d	1	1.36mi
28301 Encanto Dr Menifee, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	873	$2,025	$2.32	0d	5	1.43mi
29216 Deer Creek Cir Menifee, CA	1.0	1.0	949	$1,200	$1.26	4d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 277 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 276 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 275 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 274 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 272 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active 268 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $155,000 Active 267 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $155,000 Active 266 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $155,000 Active 263 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,000 Active 262 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 261 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 260 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 259 DOM
14. 2025-09-14
    listed $155,000 Active 935-char remark

    Show marketing remark (935 chars)

    This is a beautifully upgraded two bedroom home with an enclosed lanai area to add extra living space or entertaining space on the left side of the home. This lot has two carports and an extended driveway with a detached shed and located in the back of the park with no rear neighbors! Visitor parking is right across the road and it's just a quick walk to the clubhouse and pool area to enjoy the amenities that Hillside Mobile Estates has to offer! Besides having lovely curb appeal, this gorgeous home has LVP floor installed just 3 years ago, painted 3 years ago, newer ceiling fans throughout, and an upgraded and spacious kitchen that includes a pantry and granite countertops! The guest bathroom has an upgraded vanity and primary bedroom is huge with connected en-suite bathroom. The space rent is low for this unit and also includes trash and water for convenience and affordability! Don't miss out on this beautiful home!

15. 2025-04-06
    price $160,000
16. 2025-02-12
    listed $170,000 Active
17. 2021-02-02
    soldstatus $70,000 Closed Sale
18. 2021-01-08
    status Pending Sale
19. 2021-01-07
    listed $75,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $319 · $27/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,178 · $98/mo
• Expected delta: +$859/yr (+$72/mo · 269.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,488
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$319
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,039
• − Management: −$2,039
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $7,125
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,710
• After-tax cash flow: $7,578/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Menifee Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0624540
• Math proficiency: 43% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $58,228
• Composite: 45.17/100
• National rank: #5790
• State rank: #434 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Menifee

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #407
• US rank: #13882

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Menifee, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 111,667
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 20,767
• Household income: $57,708
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1163.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 17% Black 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.18%
• Current HPI: 364.9577
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.10%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+106.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-14 Listed $155,000 CRMLS
• 2025-04-06 Price Changed $160,000 CRMLS
• 2025-02-12 Listed $170,000 CRMLS
• 2021-02-02 Sold (MLS) $70,000 CRMLS
• 2021-01-08 Pending — CRMLS
• 2021-01-07 Listed $75,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $319 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.