121 Lauryn St · Three Rivers, TX 78071

$155,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1994 1.00 ac lot Est $161k · at est. ↓ 2% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.8/30.0
• ARV discount +9.2/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Country living just outside of Three Rivers with views of Choke Canyon Lake! This versatile property offers endless possibilities—ideal as a primary residence, weekend retreat, or investment opportunity. Enjoy peaceful surroundings while still having convenient access to town amenities. Water is provided by the City of Three Rivers. Whether you're looking to settle down, generate rental income, or create a getaway, this property is full of potential.

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Built 1994
• Listed 17 days

Tags

• VIEWS OF CHOKE CANYON LAKE
• PEACEFUL SURROUNDINGS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Electricity supplied by Karnes Elect; City water (City of Three Rivers); Septic sewer; Garbage service provided (Frontier Was); Internet service (VTX)
• Home design: Faces west; Pre-owned
• Construction: Approximately 32 years old; Siding and cement fiber exterior; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Chain link fence; Gutters; Street paved

Interior

• Kitchen: 11 x 13 kitchen; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom 13 x 11 with ceiling fan; Bedroom 2 11 x 11; Bedroom 3 11 x 10
• Flooring: Linoleum flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full baths; 2 half baths; Master bath with tub/shower combination (10 x 5)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (1 unit)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Washer and dryer connections; Stove/Range included; Electric water heater; Private garbage service; Utility room inside; Cable TV available; All window coverings remain
• Laundry & utility: Utility room 8 x 6; Washer connection; Dryer connection

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $155 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $145k (6.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $145k (6.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#118 in TX, #3,769 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Three Rivers ISD (rural): math 46% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #287 of 826 in TX (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Three Rivers El (math 52% / reading 42%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 318 students, 68% FRL); Three Rivers Jr/Sr H S (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #821 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 267 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 12 units permitted in Live Oak County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Live Oak County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $144,820 (6.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.30%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $161,184
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
121 Lauryn St	0.00mi	3/2.0	960 (-13%)	23mo	$140,000	$146	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.82% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $35,363
• Equity at exit: $76,950

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.39×
• Total profit: $103,852
• Equity at exit: $124,568

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78071

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,448 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,335/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $155

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,251

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $243	-5% $199	+0% $155	+5% $112	+10% $68
Rent	-10% $41	-5% $98	+0% $155	+5% $213	+10% $270
Rate	-1.0pp $234	-0.5pp $195	base $155	+0.5pp $115	+1.0pp $74

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $155,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $155,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 New 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $155,000 New 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 New 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $155,000 New 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $155,000 New 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $155,000 New 2 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    listed $155,000 New 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,335 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,836 · $236/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,502/yr (+$125/mo · 112.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,378
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$1,335
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,390
• − Management: −$1,390
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$703
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$169
• After-tax cash flow: $2,034/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Three Rivers ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842690
• Math proficiency: 46% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,554
• Composite: 37.6/100
• National rank: #4381
• State rank: #287 of 826 in TX

Livability — Three Rivers

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #118
• US rank: #3769

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,478

Population outlook (Live Oak County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,886 people
• By 2030: 14,793 · +6.5%
• By 2040: 16,633 · +19.8%
• By 2050: 18,511 · +33.3%
• By 2075: 23,859 · +71.8%
• By 2100: 26,396 · +90.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 56% White 33% Two or more races 14% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Spanish 45% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Live Oak

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.6) · D 14.9% · R 84.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: -49.0pp · 2024: -69.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.6 2020: R+66.9 2016: R+63.5 2012: R+54.5 2008: R+49.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.82%
• Current HPI: 134.8309
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $155,000 LERA
• 2026-06-01 Listed $155,000 CBMLS
• 2024-07-10 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2024-07-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-07-03 Pending — LERA
• 2024-06-07 Contingent — LERA
• 2024-04-07 Price Changed $140,000 LERA
• 2023-12-01 Price Changed $153,800 LERA
• 2023-10-18 Listed $158,800 LERA
• 2009-05-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,335 · -3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.