1142 Chemawa Lp NE · Keizer, OR 97303

$118,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured public records · 83 Days on market

Built 1988 $140/sqft · 105% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New improved price! Don't miss out on this charming-cozy fully updated MH in a highly desirable 55+ community. Affordable park rent $560 including water, garbage & sewer. Lower property taxes. Close to shopping centers, I-5 and parks. This home is perfect if you are seeking value, location and comfort!

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1988
• Listed 83 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $118k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $486 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $118k).
• Recommended offer: $111k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 2.9% in Keizer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#56 in OR, #1,918 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: commute D+.
• Salem-Keizer SD 24J (urban): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #103 of 183 in OR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Keizer Elementary School (561 students, 70% FRL); Claggett Creek Middle School (829 students, 73% FRL); Mcnary High School (2,081 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 53% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 177 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $816 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($111k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $41k; list at $118k implies a 189% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,920 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.63%
• DSCR: 1.78
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $57,540
• List price: $118,000
• Delta: 105.07%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1138 NE Chemawa Lp	0.01mi	2/1.0	840 (0%)	19mo	$82,000	$98	80
1192 Chemawa Lp NE	0.14mi	2/1.0	800 (-5%)	8mo	$59,000	$74	75
4783 Joyce St #93	0.54mi	2/2.0	800 (-5%)	2mo	$50,000	$63	65
2077 Kennedy Cir NE #69	0.52mi	2/1.0	840 (0%)	11mo	$66,500	$79	63
5355 River Rd N	0.72mi	2/2.0	792 (-6%)	1mo	$20,000	$25	56
2062 Kennedy Cir NE #54	0.56mi	2/2.0	924 (+10%)	11mo	$62,000	$67	48
2013 Kennedy Cir NE #11	0.53mi	3/1.0 (+1)	774 (-8%)	16mo	$60,000	$78	40
2087 Kennedy Cir NE #79	0.52mi	2/1.0	728 (-13%)	21mo	$26,000	$36	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.74% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $12,890
• Equity at exit: $17,594

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $55,581
• Equity at exit: $10,202

Cash invested: $33,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97303

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 177
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,510 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$619
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $471/yr
• Insurance: −$49
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $486

Break-even live

Break-even rent $895

Max offer price $118,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $552	-5% $519	+0% $486	+5% $452	+10% $419
Rent	-10% $366	-5% $426	+0% $486	+5% $545	+10% $605
Rate	-1.0pp $545	-0.5pp $516	base $486	+0.5pp $455	+1.0pp $424

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,500
• Closing costs: $3,540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4853 Verda Ln NE Keizer, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	968	$1,914	$1.98	15d	10	0.24mi
1813 Drexler Ln NE Unit 5095-202 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	848	$1,400	$1.65	25d	1	0.33mi
1813 Drexler Ln NE Unit 5076-101 Keizer, OR	1.0	1.0	725	$1,200	$1.66	45d	1	0.33mi
898 Lockhaven Dr NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	903	$1,550	$1.72	15d	3	0.47mi
597 Rose Park Ln NE Unit 257-614 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.5	875	$1,300	$1.49	15d	1	0.51mi
597 Rose Park Ln NE Unit 257-664 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	840	$1,250	$1.49	15d	1	0.51mi
597 Rose Park Ln NE Unit 257-563 Keizer, OR	1.0	1.0	690	$1,099	$1.59	15d	1	0.51mi
597 Rose Park Ln NE Unit 257-636 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.5	875	$1,300	$1.49	45d	1	0.51mi
600 Lockhaven Dr NE Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	834	$1,399	$1.68	45d	1	0.51mi
180 Sandy Dr N Unit 196 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	875	$1,300	$1.49	25d	1	0.60mi
790 Lockhaven Dr NE Keizer, OR	2.0	1.5	1050	$2,024	$1.93	12d	11	0.64mi
5799 Trail Ave NE Unit 5819-304 Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	952	$1,695	$1.78	25d	1	0.65mi
5925 Trail Ave NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	961	$1,600	$1.66	0d	3	0.68mi
5945 Trail Ave NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	1005	$1,500	$1.49	45d	1	0.69mi
5905 Trail Ave NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	1005	$1,500	$1.49	45d	1	0.70mi
5955 Trail Ave NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	918	$1,550	$1.69	25d	1	0.70mi
5965 Trail Ave NE Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	1005	$1,500	$1.49	45d	1	0.72mi
5975 Trail Ave NE Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	918	$1,500	$1.63	22d	1	0.73mi
4329 Arnold St NE Unit 4329 Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	950	$1,800	$1.89	45d	1	0.74mi
4325 Arnold St NE Unit 4325 Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	950	$1,900	$2.00	25d	1	0.74mi
4323 Arnold St NE Unit 4323 Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	950	$1,750	$1.84	25d	1	0.74mi
4327 Arnold St NE Unit 4327 Keizer, OR	1.0	1.0	600	$1,550	$2.58	25d	1	0.74mi
208 Lakepoint Pl N Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	936	$1,650	$1.76	0d	3	0.75mi
589 Greenwood Dr NE Unit Greenwood Dr NE unit 37 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	850	$1,250	$1.47	45d	1	0.75mi
205 Lakepoint Pl N Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	936	$1,650	$1.76	15d	1	0.77mi
4267 Tiffany Pl NE Unit 4267 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	850	$1,195	$1.41	45d	1	0.80mi
235 Cummings Ln N Unit 263 Keizer, OR	1.0	1.0	675	$1,095	$1.62	15d	1	0.81mi
737 Manbrin Dr NE Keizer, OR	1.0	1.0	760	$1,199	$1.58	15d	1	0.83mi
737 Manbrin Dr NE Unit 124-765201 Keizer, OR	1.0	1.0	760	$1,199	$1.58	25d	1	0.83mi
295 Lakepoint Pl N Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	936	$1,650	$1.76	25d	1	0.84mi
4995 Delight St N Unit 4995-204 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	870	$1,295	$1.49	45d	1	0.90mi
4014-4040 Arleta Ave NE Unit 4018 Keizer, OR	1.0	1.0	602	$995	$1.65	25d	1	1.02mi
4014-4040 Arleta Ave NE Unit 4034 Keizer, OR	1.0	1.0	602	$995	$1.65	45d	1	1.02mi
4165 River Rd N Keizer, OR	2.0	1.5	950	$1,395	$1.47	25d	1	1.05mi
1195 Clearview Ave NE Keizer, OR	1.0	1.0	650	$1,100	$1.69	45d	3	1.09mi
4525 Rivercrest Dr N Unit 4525 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	720	$1,295	$1.80	45d	1	1.09mi
861 Chemawa Rd N Unit 881 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	800	$1,495	$1.87	22d	1	1.10mi
3960 Cherry Ave NE Keizer, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	895	$1,900	$2.12	15d	4	1.12mi
132-168 Sunset Ave N Unit 136 Keizer, OR	1.0	1.0	572	$995	$1.74	45d	1	1.14mi
132-168 Sunset Ave N Unit 134 Keizer, OR	1.0	1.0	572	$995	$1.74	22d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $118,000 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $118,000 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $118,000 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $118,000 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $118,000 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $118,000 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $118,000 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $118,000 Active 71 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $118,000 Active 70 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $118,000 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $118,000 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $118,000 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $118,000 Active 63 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $118,000 Active 62 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $118,000 Active 61 DOM
16. 2026-05-06
    price $118,000 307-char remark

    Show marketing remark (307 chars)

    New improved price! Don't miss out on this charming-cozy fully updated MH in a highly desirable 55+ community. Affordable park rent $560 including water, garbage & sewer. Lower property taxes. Close to shopping centers, I-5 and parks. This home is perfect if you are seeking value, location and comfort!

17. 2026-03-30
    listed $125,000 Active 307-char remark

    Show marketing remark (307 chars)

    New improved price! Don't miss out on this charming-cozy fully updated MH in a highly desirable 55+ community. Affordable park rent $560 including water, garbage & sewer. Lower property taxes. Close to shopping centers, I-5 and parks. This home is perfect if you are seeking value, location and comfort!

18. 2022-12-12
    soldstatus $40,775 Sold 319-char remark

    Show marketing remark (319 chars)

    Beautiful home in a very desirable mobile home park in Keizer. This home has newer vinyl windows and newer HVAC system making this home energy efficient. Washer and dryer and refrigerator included in the purchase. This is 55 plus park. Rent is $465. Water and Garbage included. Starting January 2023, rent will be $500!

19. 2022-11-11
    historical Active under Contract 319-char remark

    Show marketing remark (319 chars)

    Beautiful home in a very desirable mobile home park in Keizer. This home has newer vinyl windows and newer HVAC system making this home energy efficient. Washer and dryer and refrigerator included in the purchase. This is 55 plus park. Rent is $465. Water and Garbage included. Starting January 2023, rent will be $500!

20. 2022-11-10
    listed $38,245 Active 319-char remark

    Show marketing remark (319 chars)

    Beautiful home in a very desirable mobile home park in Keizer. This home has newer vinyl windows and newer HVAC system making this home energy efficient. Washer and dryer and refrigerator included in the purchase. This is 55 plus park. Rent is $465. Water and Garbage included. Starting January 2023, rent will be $500!

21. 1988-07-26
    soldstatus $18,355

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $471 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,145 · $95/mo
• Expected delta: +$674/yr (+$56/mo · 143.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 49% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,117
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,610
• − Property taxes: −$471
• − Insurance: −$590
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,449
• − Management: −$1,449
• − Depreciation: −$3,433
• Taxable income: $4,115
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$988
• After-tax cash flow: $4,838/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Salem-Keizer SD 24J
• NCES district ID: 4110820
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,632
• Composite: 37.16/100
• National rank: #9017
• State rank: #103 of 183 in OR

Livability — Keizer

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #56
• US rank: #1918

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute D+ Cost of living C+ Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Keizer, OR
• County: Marion County · 258,219 people
• City population: 40,659
• Metro: Salem, OR
• Population (ZIP): 40,659
• Household income: $84,871
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 360,940 people
• By 2030: 375,178 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 400,914 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 422,187 · +17.0%
• By 2075: 460,305 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 464,025 · +28.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 14% Native American 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.5% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.0 2020: D+1.1 2016: R+5.0 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -428.84%
• Current HPI: 292.0057
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.74%
• Metro: Salem, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+542.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $118,000 WVMLS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $125,000 WVMLS
• 2022-12-12 Sold (MLS) $40,775 WVMLS
• 2022-11-11 Contingent — WVMLS
• 2022-11-10 Listed $38,245 WVMLS
• 1988-07-26 Sold (Public Records) $18,355 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $471 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.