11201 N El Mirage Rd Unit G28 · El Mirage, AZ 85335

$179,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Land · 91 Days on market

Built 2020 $143/sqft · 11% below area Est $200k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.3/30.0
• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

ON LEASED LAND: Step inside this absolutely stunning 2 bedroom 2 bath 2020 Cavco home. Barely lived in. Fully furnished!! Just bring your personal items. Spacious open kitchen opens to the front room, perfect for entertaining. Large Covered patio for morning beverage or entertaining. Plus a 1 car garage. Home is located in the Greens. Pueblo El Mirage offers many amenities, such as an 18-hole championship golf course, 26 pickleball courts, tennis courts, dog parks, heated pool, lawn bowling, billiards room, workshops, onsite post office and more!

Key facts

• Dog parks
• Pickleball courts
• Tennis courts

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• LARGE COVERED PATIO
• PICKLEBALL COURTS
• TENNIS COURTS
• DOG PARKS
• HEATED POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $130 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (3.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $163k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.5% in El Mirage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#112 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 132 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $162,890 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.10%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $199,999
• List price: $179,000
• Delta: -10.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-25,667
• Equity at exit: $26,689

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-30,734
• Equity at exit: $15,477

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85335

• Home prices YoY: -13.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 132
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,730 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$224 /mo · $2,685/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $130

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,566

Max offer price $179,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11825 W Altadena Ave El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,710	$1.57	12d	1	0.47mi
11714 W Poinsettia Dr El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1238	$1,695	$1.37	43d	1	0.60mi
11801 W Paradise Dr El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1238	$1,700	$1.37	24d	1	0.62mi
12621 W Cherry Hills Dr El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1238	$1,725	$1.39	24d	1	0.64mi
11922 N Olive St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,695	$1.56	4d	1	0.70mi
11934 N Olive St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1238	$1,669	$1.35	5d	1	0.72mi
12701 W Cherry Hills Dr El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,675	$1.54	24d	1	0.73mi
12563 W Charter Oak Rd El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1358	$1,749	$1.29	24d	1	0.74mi
12137 W Flores Dr El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1238	$1,785	$1.44	12d	1	0.77mi
11620 W Peoria Ave Youngtown, AZ	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	992	$1,495	$1.51	5d	1	0.77mi
12649 W Shaw Butte Dr El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1238	$1,755	$1.42	4d	1	0.78mi
11518 W Paradise Dr El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1238	$1,750	$1.41	24d	1	0.79mi
12005 W Scotts Dr El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1089	$1,810	$1.66	2d	1	0.80mi
12220 W Rosewood Dr El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,665	$1.53	24d	1	0.85mi
12519 N Pablo St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1225	$1,720	$1.40	43d	1	0.90mi
12648 N Main St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,699	$1.31	1d	1	0.94mi
10595 N 115th Dr Youngtown, AZ	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,794	$1.26	17d	1	0.94mi
12012 W Rosewood Dr El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.5	1385	$1,595	$1.15	5d	1	0.94mi
11517 W Charter Oak Rd El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,885	$1.45	24d	1	0.95mi
11517 W Charter Oak Rd El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,755	$1.35	14d	1	0.95mi
12418 W Windrose Dr El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1106	$1,650	$1.49	24d	1	1.02mi
12071 W Dahlia Dr El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1089	$1,595	$1.46	18d	1	1.06mi
12112 W Dahlia Dr El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.5	1385	$1,690	$1.22	43d	1	1.07mi
11327 W Kansas Ave Youngtown, AZ	3.0	2.0	1042	$1,725	$1.66	4d	1	1.07mi
12060 W Dahlia Dr El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1238	$1,595	$1.29	3d	1	1.10mi
11356 N 113th Ave Youngtown, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,450	$1.81	43d	1	1.10mi
11356 N 113th Ave Youngtown, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,450	$1.81	5d	1	1.10mi
11807 W Aster Dr El Mirage, AZ	2.0	1.0	1208	$1,419	$1.17	14d	1	1.13mi
11807 W Aster Dr El Mirage, AZ	2.0	1.0	1208	$1,529	$1.27	43d	1	1.13mi
12521 W Myer Ln El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,700	$1.21	43d	1	1.25mi
11634 W Vogel Ave Youngtown, AZ	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,939	$1.36	21d	1	1.25mi
11634 W Vogel Ave Youngtown, AZ	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,799	$1.26	5d	1	1.25mi
11485 W Camden Dr Youngtown, AZ	3.0	2.0	1174	$1,775	$1.51	5d	1	1.31mi
12913 W Corrine Dr El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1245	$1,745	$1.40	5d	1	1.31mi
12914 W Rosewood Dr El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,940	$1.38	20d	1	1.32mi
12910 W Corrine Dr El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,900	$1.35	10d	1	1.33mi
12440 N 113th Ave Youngtown, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	927	$1,535	$1.66	5d	2	1.34mi
11216 W Nevada Ave Youngtown, AZ	2.0	1.0	810	$1,300	$1.60	5d	1	1.37mi
11202 W Nevada Ave Youngtown, AZ	2.0	1.0	810	$1,325	$1.64	24d	1	1.40mi
11202 W Nevada Ave Youngtown, AZ	2.0	1.0	810	$1,375	$1.70	43d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,000 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,000 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,000 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,000 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,000 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,000 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,000 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $179,000 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $179,000 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,000 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,000 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,000 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,000 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-03-19
    listed $179,000 Active 566-char remark

    Show marketing remark (566 chars)

    ON LEASED LAND: Step inside this absolutely stunning 2 bedroom 2 bath 2020 Cavco home. Barely lived in. Fully furnished!! Just bring your personal items. Spacious open kitchen opens to the front room, perfect for entertaining. Large Covered patio for morning beverage or entertaining. Plus a 1 car garage. Home is located in the Greens. Pueblo El Mirage offers many amenities, such as an 18-hole championship golf course, 26 pickleball courts, tennis courts, dog parks, heated pool, lawn bowling, billiards room, workshops, onsite post office and more!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,758
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$2,685
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,661
• − Management: −$1,661
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable loss: −$1,377
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$331
• After-tax cash flow: $1,885/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — El Mirage

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #112
• US rank: #15164

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: El Mirage, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 36,088
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 36,088
• Household income: $78,050
• Rent vs Own: 30.3% rent · 69.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 669.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 35% Two or more races 28% Black 6% Native American 1% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 30% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.81%
• Current HPI: 342.6503
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.08%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Listed $179,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $341 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.