107 N Greenwood Dr · Buchanan Dam, TX 78609

$195,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,304 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 852 Days on market

Built 1970 0.25 ac lot $150/sqft · 43% below area Est $344k · 43% under ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity to own a lock and leave property in a quiet lake community or make this quiet, serene lake neighborhood your every day home. Greenwood Acres POA has 2 parks, each with amazing views of Lake Buchanan. Residents can enjoy swimming, fishing, the pier, the boat ramp, the boat dock, covered pavilion and much more. This 3/1.5 home offers an open concept, split bedroom plan. The large laundry room has enough space to have an office or bonus room. Covered area out back is a great place to entertain. Must see.

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• Built 1970
• Listed 852 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-205 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $159k (18.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (29.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $137k (29.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 0.6% in Buchanan Dam — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#813 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Burnet CISD (rural): math 36% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #465 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Burnet Middle (math 32% / reading 33%, grade F, #947 of 1,662 statewide, top 58%, 731 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 46% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 121 units permitted in Llano County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.8% local appreciation)).
• Llano County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 852 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 59% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,878 (29.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 852 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.50%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $343,654
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: -43.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
126 Lakeview Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,487 (+14%)	3mo	$399,900	$269	62
100 S Mesquite	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,458 (+12%)	18mo	$229,990	$158	54
104 S Mesquite Ave	0.29mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,476 (+13%)	22mo	$283,000	$192	42
658 Golden Beach Dr	0.75mi	2/2.0	1,456 (+12%)	6mo	$350,000	$240	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.77% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-11,573
• Equity at exit: $64,256

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $7,044
• Equity at exit: $83,629

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78609

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,369 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$182 /mo · $2,184/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $-205

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,628

Max offer price $158,867

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-94	-5% $-149	+0% $-205	+5% $-260	+10% $-315
Rent	-10% $-313	-5% $-259	+0% $-205	+5% $-150	+10% $-96
Rate	-1.0pp $-106	-0.5pp $-155	base $-205	+0.5pp $-255	+1.0pp $-306

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   remarks 599-char remark
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $195,000 Active 852 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   remarks 579-char remark
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 849 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 848 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 847 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 846 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 844 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 840 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $195,000 Active 839 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $195,000 Active 838 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $195,000 Active 835 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 834 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 833 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 832 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 831 DOM
17. 2026-05-17
    price $195,000 524-char remark

    Show marketing remark (524 chars)

    Great opportunity to own a lock and leave property in a quiet lake community or make this quiet, serene lake neighborhood your every day home. Greenwood Acres POA has 2 parks, each with amazing views of Lake Buchanan. Residents can enjoy swimming, fishing, the pier, the boat ramp, the boat dock, covered pavilion and much more. This 3/1.5 home offers an open concept, split bedroom plan. The large laundry room has enough space to have an office or bonus room. Covered area out back is a great place to entertain. Must see.

18. 2025-11-05
    price $200,000 524-char remark

    Show marketing remark (524 chars)

    Great opportunity to own a lock and leave property in a quiet lake community or make this quiet, serene lake neighborhood your every day home. Greenwood Acres POA has 2 parks, each with amazing views of Lake Buchanan. Residents can enjoy swimming, fishing, the pier, the boat ramp, the boat dock, covered pavilion and much more. This 3/1.5 home offers an open concept, split bedroom plan. The large laundry room has enough space to have an office or bonus room. Covered area out back is a great place to entertain. Must see.

19. 2025-01-21
    price $230,000 524-char remark

    Show marketing remark (524 chars)

    Great opportunity to own a lock and leave property in a quiet lake community or make this quiet, serene lake neighborhood your every day home. Greenwood Acres POA has 2 parks, each with amazing views of Lake Buchanan. Residents can enjoy swimming, fishing, the pier, the boat ramp, the boat dock, covered pavilion and much more. This 3/1.5 home offers an open concept, split bedroom plan. The large laundry room has enough space to have an office or bonus room. Covered area out back is a great place to entertain. Must see.

20. 2025-01-21
    price

    Show marketing remark (524 chars)

    Great opportunity to own a lock and leave property in a quiet lake community or make this quiet, serene lake neighborhood your every day home. Greenwood Acres POA has 2 parks, each with amazing views of Lake Buchanan. Residents can enjoy swimming, fishing, the pier, the boat ramp, the boat dock, covered pavilion and much more. This 3/1.5 home offers an open concept, split bedroom plan. The large laundry room has enough space to have an office or bonus room. Covered area out back is a great place to entertain. Must see.

21. 2024-02-20
    listed $255,000 Active 524-char remark

    Show marketing remark (524 chars)

    Great opportunity to own a lock and leave property in a quiet lake community or make this quiet, serene lake neighborhood your every day home. Greenwood Acres POA has 2 parks, each with amazing views of Lake Buchanan. Residents can enjoy swimming, fishing, the pier, the boat ramp, the boat dock, covered pavilion and much more. This 3/1.5 home offers an open concept, split bedroom plan. The large laundry room has enough space to have an office or bonus room. Covered area out back is a great place to entertain. Must see.

22. 2024-02-20
    listed Active

    Show marketing remark (524 chars)

    Great opportunity to own a lock and leave property in a quiet lake community or make this quiet, serene lake neighborhood your every day home. Greenwood Acres POA has 2 parks, each with amazing views of Lake Buchanan. Residents can enjoy swimming, fishing, the pier, the boat ramp, the boat dock, covered pavilion and much more. This 3/1.5 home offers an open concept, split bedroom plan. The large laundry room has enough space to have an office or bonus room. Covered area out back is a great place to entertain. Must see.

23. 1996-04-19
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,184 · $182/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,568 · $297/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,384/yr (+$115/mo · 63.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 59% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,425
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$2,184
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,314
• − Management: −$1,314
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$5,958
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,430
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,025/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Burnet CISD
• NCES district ID: 4812220
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $50,890
• Composite: 32.09/100
• National rank: #5811
• State rank: #465 of 826 in TX

Livability — Buchanan Dam

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #813
• US rank: #14766

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buchanan Dam, TX
• City population: 1,826
• Population (ZIP): 1,826

Population outlook (Llano County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,847 people
• By 2030: 21,350 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 22,281 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 23,173 · +11.2%
• By 2075: 25,526 · +22.4%
• By 2100: 25,866 · +24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 4% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 2% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Llano

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.9) · D 19.2% · R 80.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -52.2pp · 2024: -60.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.9 2020: R+60.1 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+60.4 2008: R+52.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.77%
• Current HPI: 197.8559
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-23.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $195,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-11-05 Price Changed $200,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-01-21 Price Changed $230,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-01-21 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2024-02-20 Listed $255,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2024-02-20 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 1996-04-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,184 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.