4909 Winamac Dr · Sacramento, CA 95835

$519,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,252 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 2003 3,903 sqft lot $230/sqft · at area comps Est $536k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• Cash flow +5.5/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Stunning TWO-STORY HOME features 3-4 beds 2 1/2 baths located in North Natomas. MOVE IN READY! Spacious open floor plan seamlessly combines the Kitchen, Dining, and Family area, perfect for family daily living and entertaining guests. The kitchen offers ample storage and features beautiful marble patterned granite countertops. Wood floor spans the entire first floor, while plush carpet adds comfort to the second story. Low maintenance front and back yard for easy upkeep and year round enjoyment. LOCATED 5 minutes from the new COSTCO, one minute drive to schools, walking distance to parks, convenient to freeway access and shopping centers. TENANT OCCUPIED. Very nice tenant, lease ends by Ju

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Low maintenance yard
• Wood floor

Tags

• TWO STORY HOME
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• AMPLE STORAGE
• WOOD FLOOR
• LOW MAINTENANCE YARD
• WALKING DISTANCE TO PARKS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 220 volts available in laundry
• Home design: Single-family detached residence; Built in 2003; Two-story
• Construction: Tile roof
• Exterior features: Regular-shaped lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen/family room combo
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (located on the upper level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom; Shower stall(s) and tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Great room; Kitchen and family room combined; Dining area open to family room; Main level includes living room, dining room, family room, kitchen, and a partial bathroom; Upper level includes bedrooms, loft, master bedroom, and full bathroom
• Laundry & utility: Laundry has 220V electric and gas hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $519k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $301k (42.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $306k (41.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $301k (42.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 3.0% in Sacramento — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#218 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, crime F, cost of living F.
• Natomas Unified (urban): math 33% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #155 of 517 in CA (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 402 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $51k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $48k appreciation (9.2% local appreciation)).
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$82k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($511k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $390k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A99 (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $301,189 (42.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.15%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 14.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $536,182
• List price: $519,000
• Delta: -3.20%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4972 Madamin Way	0.07mi	3/2.5	2,131 (-5%)	1mo	$510,000	$239	86
2919 Ottumwa Dr	0.12mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,300 (+2%)	9mo	$550,000	$239	78
15 Bristle Bark Pl	0.49mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,238 (-1%)	0mo	$560,000	$250	69
2656 Maybrook Dr	0.58mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,265 (+1%)	2mo	$640,000	$283	64
2951 Holdrege Way	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,914 (-15%)	7mo	$555,000	$290	57
9 Captains Gate Pl	0.41mi	3/2.5	1,962 (-13%)	3mo	$514,990	$262	57
5263 Cloud Crest Way	0.54mi	3/2.5	2,487 (+10%)	4mo	$599,000	$241	54
5362 Seal Beach Way	0.70mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,137 (-5%)	1mo	$598,000	$280	53
5313 Pebble Banks Way	0.57mi	3/2.5	2,487 (+10%)	5mo	$580,000	$233	52
341 Anjou Cir	0.68mi	3/2.5	2,003 (-11%)	1mo	$534,000	$267	49
5236 Glimmer Way	0.74mi	3/2.5	2,137 (-5%)	9mo	$560,000	$262	49
10 Scenic Point Pl	0.37mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,962 (-13%)	9mo	$523,000	$267	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.18% appreciation · 1.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.17×
• Total profit: $170,739
• Equity at exit: $437,007

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.78×
• Total profit: $549,426
• Equity at exit: $911,700

Cash invested: $145,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95835

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 402
• Price-to-rent: 14.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,062 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,722
• Tax from tax record: −$589 /mo · $7,064/yr
• Insurance: −$216
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$643
• Net cashflow: $-1,233

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,623

Max offer price $301,189

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $129,750
• Closing costs: $15,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
570 Wapello Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1697	$3,000	$1.77	43d	1	0.16mi
260 Wapello Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	3.0	1697	$2,650	$1.56	7d	1	0.17mi
3301 N Park Dr Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1678	$2,672	$1.59	43d	2	0.18mi
5040 Kankakee Dr Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.0	2454	$2,895	$1.18	3d	1	0.27mi
4800 Kokomo Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.5	1229	$3,819	$3.11	1d	26	0.31mi
4470 Saone Walk Sacramento, CA	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1846	$2,595	$1.41	1d	1	0.65mi
4441 Rhone Walk Sacramento, CA	4.0	3.5	2298	$2,950	$1.28	43d	1	0.70mi
2957 Valbonne Walk Sacramento, CA	4.0	3.5	2298	$2,950	$1.28	4d	1	0.72mi
5050 Trouville Ln Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1583	$2,950	$1.86	43d	1	0.72mi
2957 Nimes Ln Sacramento, CA	4.0	3.5	1920	$2,795	$1.46	43d	1	0.77mi
3530 Callison Dr Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.5	2007	$3,000	$1.49	1d	1	0.90mi
11 Long Warf Pl Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1708	$2,795	$1.64	1d	1	0.93mi
100 Picasso Cir Sacramento, CA	4.0	3.0	2413	$3,950	$1.64	3d	1	0.97mi
3712 Bayou Rd Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1660	$4,000	$2.41	3d	1	1.06mi
5350 Dunlay Dr Sacramento, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1585	$2,750	$1.74	17d	3	1.07mi
5350 Dunlay Dr Sacramento, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1585	$2,750	$1.74	22d	2	1.07mi
620 Candela Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1681	$2,595	$1.54	43d	1	1.12mi
30 Sheen Ct Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1652	$2,850	$1.73	43d	1	1.12mi
3766 Bayou Rd Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1660	$2,675	$1.61	43d	1	1.13mi
5421 Shennecock Way Unit 1 Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.5	2561	$3,000	$1.17	10d	1	1.17mi
789 Greg Thatch Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	2000	$2,990	$1.50	3d	1	1.21mi
4237 Malta Island St Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1954	$2,895	$1.48	43d	1	1.23mi
3396 Shaker Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1815	$3,250	$1.79	12d	1	1.24mi
5663 Lolet Way Sacramento, CA	4.0	3.0	2630	$3,295	$1.25	1d	1	1.26mi
2157 Promise Way Sacramento, CA	4.0	3.0	2493	$2,995	$1.20	1d	1	1.30mi
3672 Iskenderun Ave Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	2352	$2,895	$1.23	17d	1	1.33mi
4118 Adriatic Sea Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1593	$2,995	$1.88	17d	1	1.35mi
4138 Hydo Lake Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1954	$3,000	$1.54	17d	1	1.37mi
101 Lily Bay Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1950	$2,900	$1.49	20d	1	1.41mi
1926 Ivycrest Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1630	$2,695	$1.65	43d	1	1.42mi
4032 Vittoria Ln Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,795	$1.75	23d	1	1.42mi
4045 Neapolis Ln Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1811	$2,800	$1.55	2d	1	1.45mi
3606 Damora Ave Sacramento, CA	4.0	3.5	2362	$3,900	$1.65	43d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $519,000 Pending 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $519,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $519,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $519,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $519,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $519,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   pricestatus $519,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2022-06-22
   price $2,450
9. 2017-07-13
   soldstatus $390,000
10. 2006-06-28
    soldstatus $436,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,064 · $589/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,064 · $589/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone A99 · 65% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,742
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,072
• − Property taxes: −$7,064
• − Insurance: −$4,098
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,939
• − Management: −$2,939
• − Depreciation: −$15,098
• Taxable loss: −$24,469
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,872
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,923/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Natomas Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600036
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $67,969
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3457
• State rank: #155 of 517 in CA

Livability — Sacramento

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #6957

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sacramento, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 761,410
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 42,004
• Household income: $114,468
• Rent vs Own: 30.1% rent · 69.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1234.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.78)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 30% White 29% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 15% Black 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Other Indo-European 10% Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.18%
• Current HPI: 271.4823
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.43%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-99.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2022-06-22 Price Changed $2,450 RENT.
• 2017-07-13 Sold (Public Records) $390,000 Public Records
• 2006-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $436,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,064 · -3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.