23215 Birmingham Grove Ln · Tomball, TX 77375

$280,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,684 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition 5,000 sqft lot Garage $166/sqft · 11% below area Est $316k · 11% under $81/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Willowpoint in Tomball, a charming community just off FM 2920. This one-story home offers 4 bedrooms and 2 baths. Enjoy the open floorplan with high ceilings and plenty of natural light. Convenient valet area located off hall. Cozy great room opens to dining room. The kitchen features beautiful white cabinets, granite countertops, a low bar top, decorative tile backsplash, and a farmhouse sink. The spacious owner's suite includes a large walk-in closet, double sinks, and an oversized shower. A versatile bonus room offers endless possibilities for a home office, playroom, media room, or hobby space.

Key facts

• White cabinets
• Open floorplan
• Natural light

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• HIGH CEILINGS
• NATURAL LIGHT
• GREAT ROOM
• WHITE CABINETS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-400 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $209k (25.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (13.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (25.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.0% in Tomball — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#155 in TX, #4,239 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Klein ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Schultz El (math 41% / reading 48%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 566 students, 61% FRL); Krimmel Intermed (math 51% / reading 52%, grade C, #318 of 1,662 statewide, top 20%, 1,294 students, 42% FRL); Klein H S (math 58% / reading 67%, grade B-, #234 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 3,352 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 1030 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 139d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 79% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,415 (25.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.12%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $315,793
• List price: $280,000
• Delta: -11.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10443 Astor Point Trl	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,610 (-4%)	15mo	$320,000	$199	74
23610 Water Hickory Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (-0%)	3mo	$270,000	$161	61
22907 Banff Brook Way	0.48mi	4/2.0	1,842 (+9%)	1mo	$360,000	$195	61
23535 Virginia Pine Dr	0.52mi	4/2.5	1,792 (+6%)	4mo	$280,000	$156	60
10010 Red Tamarack Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,737 (+3%)	11mo	$280,000	$161	58
23003 Silver Linden Ct	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,924 (+14%)	1mo	$299,000	$155	56
23730 Hiddenbriar Loop	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,707 (+1%)	9mo	$275,000	$161	54
9923 Berlandier Ash Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,635 (-3%)	9mo	$296,500	$181	48
23707 Water Hickory Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,732 (+3%)	13mo	$279,000	$161	47
23319 W Pine Ivy Ln	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,921 (+14%)	12mo	$285,000	$148	47
23711 Water Hickory Dr	0.70mi	4/2.0	1,878 (+12%)	12mo	$280,000	$149	38
10214 Larkmist Ln	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,442 (-14%)	10mo	$259,000	$180	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-77,680
• Equity at exit: $41,749

10-year hold

• IRR: -60.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.62×
• Total profit: $-126,867
• Equity at exit: $24,209

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 10 active · 14 under contract
• Months of supply: 4.6 mo (22%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $299,000 ($167/sqft)
• Median days on market: 69 d
• This list price: 10% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +12.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77375

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 1030
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,435 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$657 /mo · $7,882/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$81
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$511
• Net cashflow: $-400

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,940

Max offer price $209,415

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-241	-5% $-320	+0% $-400	+5% $-479	+10% $-558
Rent	-10% $-592	-5% $-496	+0% $-400	+5% $-303	+10% $-207
Rate	-1.0pp $-259	-0.5pp $-328	base $-400	+0.5pp $-472	+1.0pp $-546

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10423 Astor Point Trl Tomball, TX	4.0	2.5	2208	$2,500	$1.13	54d	1	0.09mi
23023 Black Mountain Ash Ct Tomball, TX	3.0	2.0	1781	$1,900	$1.07	56d	1	0.33mi
10015 Bitternut Hickory Ln Tomball, TX	3.0	2.0	1781	$1,995	$1.12	45d	1	0.45mi
9536 Farm to Market 2920 Unit 2920 Tomball, TX	3.0	2.0	1343	$1,850	$1.38	20d	1	0.66mi
9530 Farm to Market 2920 Tomball, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1033	$2,400	$2.32	2d	33	0.66mi
9835 Willow Creek Commerce Dr Unit 223 Tomball, TX	4.0	2.5	2015	$2,579	$1.28	139d	1	0.67mi
9835 Willow Creek Commerce Dr Tomball, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.0	1739	$3,431	$1.97	0d	1	0.69mi
9835 Willow Creek Commerce Dr Tomball, TX	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,297	$1.38	140d	1	0.69mi
9835 Willow Creek Commerce Dr Tomball, TX	3.0	2.0	1464	$2,199	$1.50	139d	1	0.69mi
9835 Willow Creek Commerce Dr Unit 304 Tomball, TX	4.0	2.5	2015	$2,609	$1.29	139d	1	0.73mi
9835 Willow Creek Commerce Dr Unit 202 Tomball, TX	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,079	$1.42	139d	1	0.73mi
9835 Willow Creek Commerce Dr #610 Tomball, TX	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,459	$1.32	139d	1	0.73mi
9835 Willow Creek Commerce Dr Unit 410 Tomball, TX	4.0	2.5	2017	$2,649	$1.31	139d	1	0.75mi
9835 Willow Creek Commerce Dr Unit 516 Tomball, TX	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,219	$1.52	139d	1	0.80mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Full ownership
• HOA & community: Member of Willowpoint Residential AssociationAnnual association fee of $975

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Security: Prewired for securitySmoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyFaces eastBuilt in 2024Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick, cement siding and stone exteriorComposition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patioPatioDeckFenced backyardSubdivision settingConcrete road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas ovenGas rangeMicrowaveDishwasherDisposalWalk-in pantry
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 17 x 11)Three additional first-floor bedrooms (approx. 9 x 9, 9 x 9, 9 x 10)
• Flooring: CarpetLaminate
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air conditioningElectric coolingAttic fan
• Interior features: Double vanityHigh ceilingsTub/showerWalk-in pantryCeiling fansProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windowsRadiant attic barrier (energy efficient)Tankless water heater (listed with appliances)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $280,000 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $280,000 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $280,000 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $280,000 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $280,000 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $280,000 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $280,000 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $280,000 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $280,000 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $280,000 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $280,000 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $280,000 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $280,000 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $280,000 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $280,000 Active 22 DOM
16. 2026-09-02
    days on market $280,000 Active 20 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $280,000 Active 18 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $280,000 Active 16 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $280,000 Active 15 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $280,000 Active 14 DOM
21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $280,000 Active 13 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $280,000 Active 12 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $280,000 Active 11 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $280,000 Active 10 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $280,000 Active 9 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $280,000 Active 8 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $280,000 Active 7 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $280,000 Active 6 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $280,000 Active 5 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $280,000 Active 4 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $280,000 Active 3 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $280,000 Active 2 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    pricedays on marketlisting id $280,000 Active 1 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $295,000 Active 71 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $295,000 Active 70 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $295,000 Active 69 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $295,000 Active 68 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $295,000 Active 67 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $295,000 Active 66 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $295,000 Active 64 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $295,000 Active 63 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $295,000 Active 62 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $295,000 Active 61 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $295,000 Active 58 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $295,000 Active 56 DOM
46. 2026-07-28
    days on market $295,000 Active 55 DOM
47. 2026-07-26
    days on market $295,000 Active 53 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $295,000 Active 51 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $295,000 Active 50 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $295,000 Active 49 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,882 · $657/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,882 · $657/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,215
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$7,882
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,337
• − Management: −$2,337
• − HOA: −$972
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$9,544
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,290
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,504/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,420–$25,260 screening

This one-story home in Willowpoint, Tomball, TX, is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It offers a good investment opportunity with minimal repairs and maintenance needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Reorganizing and decluttering interior spaces — Creates a more inviting and functional living environment ↑
• Both Upgrading light fixtures — Improves energy efficiency and enhances the home's curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 50/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Schultz El F TX #1,155/4,322 Nat'l #16,061/41,679 Middle Krimmel Intermed C TX #318/1,662 Nat'l #3,192/14,009 High Klein Oak H S C- TX #428/1,632 Nat'l #4,818/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Klein ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825740
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $78,288
• Composite: 40.91/100
• National rank: #3615
• State rank: #213 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Tomball

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #155
• US rank: #4239

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 113,991
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 72,311
• Household income: $102,488
• Rent vs Own: 30.2% rent · 69.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 19% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 13% Black 10% Asian 6% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 2% Vietnamese 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -119.81%
• Current HPI: 233.6155
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.49%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Full ownership
• HOA & community: Member of Willowpoint Residential AssociationAnnual association fee of $975

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Security: Prewired for securitySmoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyFaces eastBuilt in 2024Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick, cement siding and stone exteriorComposition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patioPatioDeckFenced backyardSubdivision settingConcrete road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas ovenGas rangeMicrowaveDishwasherDisposalWalk-in pantry
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 17 x 11)Three additional first-floor bedrooms (approx. 9 x 9, 9 x 9, 9 x 10)
• Flooring: CarpetLaminate
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air conditioningElectric coolingAttic fan
• Interior features: Double vanityHigh ceilingsTub/showerWalk-in pantryCeiling fansProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windowsRadiant attic barrier (energy efficient)Tankless water heater (listed with appliances)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Price history

-11.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-08-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-08-13 Listed $280,000 HARMLS
• 2026-07-04 Price Changed $295,000 HARMLS
• 2026-06-03 Listed $299,000 HARMLS
• 2025-02-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-01-28 Rental Removed $2,300 HARMLS
• 2025-01-11 Price Changed $2,300 HARMLS
• 2024-12-21 Listed for Rent $2,500 HARMLS
• 2024-12-20 Listed $315,000 HARMLS
• 2024-07-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+159.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,882 · +571.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.