24984 Forrest Cove Way · California, MD 20636

$185,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,264 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 175 Days on market

Built 1947 1.49 ac lot $146/sqft · 30% below area ↓ 26% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom 2 bath detached single family home situated on a beautiful private lot (1.49 acre). HUD MAKES NO REPAIRS. HUD CASE#241-765957). Insurability: UNINSURABLE DUE TO CONDITION All bids to be submitted at: www. hudhomestore. gov. Bids may only be submittedby HUD registered Agents/Agencies. All properties built before 1978 will include a LBP. Agents can obtain copies of any disclosures at: www. hudhomestore. gov (lead based paint, radon gas and mold notices as well as electronic bidding and earnest deposit procedures, property condition reports, draft contract instructions, bidder eligibility, bid status and FHA eligibility). Insurability is subject to FHA appraisal. Buyers are responsible for Dewinterization / re-winterization coordination and expenses. EQUAL HOUSING OPPORTUNITY. GROUND RENT/HOA/CONDO FEES/FF Fees if any to be verified by purchaser. All offers submitted to HUDHOMESTORE for bid status and availability visit HUDHOMESTORE.

Key facts

• 1.49 acre lot
• Built 1947
• Listed 174 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-125 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $163k (11.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (20.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $147k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.3% in California — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#127 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• St. Mary'S County Public Schools (rural): math 23% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #8 of 24 in MD (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 265 units permitted in St. Mary's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• St. Mary's County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 175 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,383 (20.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 175 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.89%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $432,473
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: -57.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.79×
• Total profit: $92,834
• Equity at exit: $166,663

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.40×
• Total profit: $279,690
• Equity at exit: $359,414

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20636

• Home prices YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,474 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$242 /mo · $2,903/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $-125

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,632

Max offer price $162,947

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-20	-5% $-72	+0% $-125	+5% $-177	+10% $-230
Rent	-10% $-241	-5% $-183	+0% $-125	+5% $-67	+10% $-8
Rate	-1.0pp $-32	-0.5pp $-78	base $-125	+0.5pp $-173	+1.0pp $-222

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $185,000 Active 175 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 174 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 173 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 172 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 171 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $185,000 Active 169 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $185,000 Active 168 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 165 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 164 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,000 Active 163 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $185,000 Active 160 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 158 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 157 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 156 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $185,000 Active 155 DOM
16. 2026-05-16
    price $185,000 956-char remark

    Show marketing remark (956 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath detached single family home situated on a beautiful private lot (1.49 acre). HUD MAKES NO REPAIRS. HUD CASE#241-765957). Insurability: UNINSURABLE DUE TO CONDITION All bids to be submitted at: www. hudhomestore. gov. Bids may only be submittedby HUD registered Agents/Agencies. All properties built before 1978 will include a LBP. Agents can obtain copies of any disclosures at: www. hudhomestore. gov (lead based paint, radon gas and mold notices as well as electronic bidding and earnest deposit procedures, property condition reports, draft contract instructions, bidder eligibility, bid status and FHA eligibility). Insurability is subject to FHA appraisal. Buyers are responsible for Dewinterization / re-winterization coordination and expenses. EQUAL HOUSING OPPORTUNITY. GROUND RENT/HOA/CONDO FEES/FF Fees if any to be verified by purchaser. All offers submitted to HUDHOMESTORE for bid status and availability visit HUDHOMESTORE.

17. 2026-05-16
    status Active 956-char remark

    Show marketing remark (956 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath detached single family home situated on a beautiful private lot (1.49 acre). HUD MAKES NO REPAIRS. HUD CASE#241-765957). Insurability: UNINSURABLE DUE TO CONDITION All bids to be submitted at: www. hudhomestore. gov. Bids may only be submittedby HUD registered Agents/Agencies. All properties built before 1978 will include a LBP. Agents can obtain copies of any disclosures at: www. hudhomestore. gov (lead based paint, radon gas and mold notices as well as electronic bidding and earnest deposit procedures, property condition reports, draft contract instructions, bidder eligibility, bid status and FHA eligibility). Insurability is subject to FHA appraisal. Buyers are responsible for Dewinterization / re-winterization coordination and expenses. EQUAL HOUSING OPPORTUNITY. GROUND RENT/HOA/CONDO FEES/FF Fees if any to be verified by purchaser. All offers submitted to HUDHOMESTORE for bid status and availability visit HUDHOMESTORE.

18. 2026-04-10
    status Pending 956-char remark

    Show marketing remark (956 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath detached single family home situated on a beautiful private lot (1.49 acre). HUD MAKES NO REPAIRS. HUD CASE#241-765957). Insurability: UNINSURABLE DUE TO CONDITION All bids to be submitted at: www. hudhomestore. gov. Bids may only be submittedby HUD registered Agents/Agencies. All properties built before 1978 will include a LBP. Agents can obtain copies of any disclosures at: www. hudhomestore. gov (lead based paint, radon gas and mold notices as well as electronic bidding and earnest deposit procedures, property condition reports, draft contract instructions, bidder eligibility, bid status and FHA eligibility). Insurability is subject to FHA appraisal. Buyers are responsible for Dewinterization / re-winterization coordination and expenses. EQUAL HOUSING OPPORTUNITY. GROUND RENT/HOA/CONDO FEES/FF Fees if any to be verified by purchaser. All offers submitted to HUDHOMESTORE for bid status and availability visit HUDHOMESTORE.

19. 2026-03-13
    price $206,550 956-char remark

    Show marketing remark (956 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath detached single family home situated on a beautiful private lot (1.49 acre). HUD MAKES NO REPAIRS. HUD CASE#241-765957). Insurability: UNINSURABLE DUE TO CONDITION All bids to be submitted at: www. hudhomestore. gov. Bids may only be submittedby HUD registered Agents/Agencies. All properties built before 1978 will include a LBP. Agents can obtain copies of any disclosures at: www. hudhomestore. gov (lead based paint, radon gas and mold notices as well as electronic bidding and earnest deposit procedures, property condition reports, draft contract instructions, bidder eligibility, bid status and FHA eligibility). Insurability is subject to FHA appraisal. Buyers are responsible for Dewinterization / re-winterization coordination and expenses. EQUAL HOUSING OPPORTUNITY. GROUND RENT/HOA/CONDO FEES/FF Fees if any to be verified by purchaser. All offers submitted to HUDHOMESTORE for bid status and availability visit HUDHOMESTORE.

20. 2026-02-27
    status Active 956-char remark

    Show marketing remark (956 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath detached single family home situated on a beautiful private lot (1.49 acre). HUD MAKES NO REPAIRS. HUD CASE#241-765957). Insurability: UNINSURABLE DUE TO CONDITION All bids to be submitted at: www. hudhomestore. gov. Bids may only be submittedby HUD registered Agents/Agencies. All properties built before 1978 will include a LBP. Agents can obtain copies of any disclosures at: www. hudhomestore. gov (lead based paint, radon gas and mold notices as well as electronic bidding and earnest deposit procedures, property condition reports, draft contract instructions, bidder eligibility, bid status and FHA eligibility). Insurability is subject to FHA appraisal. Buyers are responsible for Dewinterization / re-winterization coordination and expenses. EQUAL HOUSING OPPORTUNITY. GROUND RENT/HOA/CONDO FEES/FF Fees if any to be verified by purchaser. All offers submitted to HUDHOMESTORE for bid status and availability visit HUDHOMESTORE.

21. 2026-02-04
    status Pending 956-char remark

    Show marketing remark (956 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath detached single family home situated on a beautiful private lot (1.49 acre). HUD MAKES NO REPAIRS. HUD CASE#241-765957). Insurability: UNINSURABLE DUE TO CONDITION All bids to be submitted at: www. hudhomestore. gov. Bids may only be submittedby HUD registered Agents/Agencies. All properties built before 1978 will include a LBP. Agents can obtain copies of any disclosures at: www. hudhomestore. gov (lead based paint, radon gas and mold notices as well as electronic bidding and earnest deposit procedures, property condition reports, draft contract instructions, bidder eligibility, bid status and FHA eligibility). Insurability is subject to FHA appraisal. Buyers are responsible for Dewinterization / re-winterization coordination and expenses. EQUAL HOUSING OPPORTUNITY. GROUND RENT/HOA/CONDO FEES/FF Fees if any to be verified by purchaser. All offers submitted to HUDHOMESTORE for bid status and availability visit HUDHOMESTORE.

22. 2026-01-15
    price $229,500 956-char remark

    Show marketing remark (956 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath detached single family home situated on a beautiful private lot (1.49 acre). HUD MAKES NO REPAIRS. HUD CASE#241-765957). Insurability: UNINSURABLE DUE TO CONDITION All bids to be submitted at: www. hudhomestore. gov. Bids may only be submittedby HUD registered Agents/Agencies. All properties built before 1978 will include a LBP. Agents can obtain copies of any disclosures at: www. hudhomestore. gov (lead based paint, radon gas and mold notices as well as electronic bidding and earnest deposit procedures, property condition reports, draft contract instructions, bidder eligibility, bid status and FHA eligibility). Insurability is subject to FHA appraisal. Buyers are responsible for Dewinterization / re-winterization coordination and expenses. EQUAL HOUSING OPPORTUNITY. GROUND RENT/HOA/CONDO FEES/FF Fees if any to be verified by purchaser. All offers submitted to HUDHOMESTORE for bid status and availability visit HUDHOMESTORE.

23. 2025-10-29
    listed $255,000 Active 956-char remark

    Show marketing remark (956 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath detached single family home situated on a beautiful private lot (1.49 acre). HUD MAKES NO REPAIRS. HUD CASE#241-765957). Insurability: UNINSURABLE DUE TO CONDITION All bids to be submitted at: www. hudhomestore. gov. Bids may only be submittedby HUD registered Agents/Agencies. All properties built before 1978 will include a LBP. Agents can obtain copies of any disclosures at: www. hudhomestore. gov (lead based paint, radon gas and mold notices as well as electronic bidding and earnest deposit procedures, property condition reports, draft contract instructions, bidder eligibility, bid status and FHA eligibility). Insurability is subject to FHA appraisal. Buyers are responsible for Dewinterization / re-winterization coordination and expenses. EQUAL HOUSING OPPORTUNITY. GROUND RENT/HOA/CONDO FEES/FF Fees if any to be verified by purchaser. All offers submitted to HUDHOMESTORE for bid status and availability visit HUDHOMESTORE.

24. 2021-05-28
    historical
25. 2021-04-20
    price $199,000
26. 2021-03-26
    price $225,000
27. 2021-03-12
    listed $250,000 Active
28. 2000-11-27
    historical
29. 2000-10-02
    listed

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,903 · $242/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,903 · $242/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,686
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$2,903
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,415
• − Management: −$1,415
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$4,716
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,132
• After-tax cash flow: $-366/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Mary'S County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400600
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $83,240
• Composite: 29.74/100
• National rank: #6444
• State rank: #8 of 24 in MD

Livability — California

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #127
• US rank: #5421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime D+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 14,212
• Population (ZIP): 10,357

Population outlook (St. Mary's County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,125 people
• By 2030: 128,374 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 137,305 · +11.5%
• By 2050: 143,065 · +16.2%
• By 2075: 153,408 · +24.6%
• By 2100: 151,790 · +23.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Mary's

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.2% · R 57.4% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -12.8pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+16.1 2008: R+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.47%
• Current HPI: 267.6537
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-26.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $185,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-16 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-10 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $206,550 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-27 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-04 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $229,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-29 Listed $255,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-05-28 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-04-20 Price Changed $199,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-03-26 Price Changed $225,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-03-12 Listed $250,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2000-11-27 Delisted — MRIS
• 2000-10-02 Listed — MRIS

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,903 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.