4339 Gulf Pines Dr · Sanibel, FL 33957

$949,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,473 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 78 Days on market

Built 1979 0.45 ac lot $148/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.4/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Location, location, location - you know what they say about location! Well this property, located in the popular beachfront community of Gulf Pines, has that very special location! You can hear the waves from your back deck and in this Gulf beach community, you are only a five minute stroll from your door to the gorgeous shell laden shore. You can’t help but feel like you’re on vacation, because everything you could ever want to relax and enjoy, is literally across the street. Gorgeous new clubhouse, with trex decking throughout, totally remodeled inside and out, just a gorgeous space to meet and greet your neighbors or plan your next big party. Beautifully refinished pool and d

Key facts

• Refinished pool
• Screen lanai
• Open deck

Tags

• BEACHFRONT COMMUNITY
• NEW CLUBHOUSE
• REFINISHED POOL
• RESURFACED TENNIS COURTS
• SCREEN LANAI
• OPEN DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is rectangular with gravel/unimproved road access; Lot size approximately 0.45 acres
• Financial info: Land lease expires 2026-04-30; Pets allowed
• HOA & community: Homeowners association; Annual association fee of $1,780; Association covers recreation facilities and road maintenance; Community amenities include beach access/rights, clubhouse, guest suites, pool, tennis courts, and management; Non-gated community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces; Garage with door opener; Guest parking
• Security: High-impact doors
• Utilities: Public water (assessment paid); Public sewer (assessment paid); Cable available; High speed internet available
• Home design: Two-story property; Entry level: 2; Faces north; Exposed to south
• Construction: Built with vinyl siding and wood frame; Shingle roof; Pillar/post/pier raised foundation; Resale condition
• Exterior features: Deck; Lanai (open); Screened porch; Porch; Security/high-impact doors; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Upper level primary; Den; Guest quarters
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Cathedral ceilings; Combined living/dining area; Tub with shower; Cable TV; High speed internet available; Partially furnished; Sliding windows; Impact glass
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $949k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($32k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($12k rent vs $949k).
• Recommended offer: $892k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 3.8% in Sanibel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#541 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 526 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $28k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $266k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($892k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $620k; list at $949k implies a 53% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $892,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.89%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $15,239
• Equity at exit: $141,499

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $231,876
• Equity at exit: $82,052

Cash invested: $265,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33957

• Home prices YoY: -15.7%
• Active inventory: 526
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $12,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,977
• Tax from tax record: −$885 /mo · $10,622/yr
• Insurance: −$395
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$148
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,520
• Net cashflow: $2,648

Break-even live

Break-even rent $8,648

Max offer price $949,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $237,250
• Closing costs: $28,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
707 Durion Ct Sanibel, FL	3.0	2.5	1306	$12,000	$9.19	23d	1	1.17mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $148 · $1,776/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $949,000 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $949,000 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $949,000 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $949,000 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $949,000 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $949,000 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $949,000 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $949,000 Active 64 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $949,000 Active 63 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $949,000 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $949,000 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-03-16
    listed $949,000 Active
13. 2020-09-22
    soldstatus $620,000
14. 2020-06-25
    historical
15. 2020-05-29
    price $695,000
16. 2019-11-14
    status Active
17. 2019-11-08
    historical
18. 2019-11-05
    status Active
19. 2019-11-01
    historical
20. 2019-10-09
    listed $750,000 Active
21. 2019-08-12
    historical
22. 2019-07-01
    price $750,000
23. 2018-11-19
    listed $795,000 Active
24. 1977-02-01
    soldstatus $21,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $10,622 · $885/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,622 · $885/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $144,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$53,159
• − Property taxes: −$10,622
• − Insurance: −$9,864
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$11,520
• − Management: −$11,520
• − HOA: −$1,776
• − Depreciation: −$27,607
• Taxable income: $17,933
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,304
• After-tax cash flow: $27,475/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Sanibel

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #541
• US rank: #10166

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing D+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sanibel, FL
• City population: 6,402
• Population (ZIP): 6,402

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.08%
• Current HPI: 501.0
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+4419.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Listed $949,000 FORTMLS
• 2020-09-22 Sold (Public Records) $620,000 Public Records
• 2020-06-25 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2020-05-29 Price Changed $695,000 FORTMLS
• 2019-11-14 Relisted — FORTMLS
• 2019-11-08 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2019-11-05 Relisted — FORTMLS
• 2019-11-01 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2019-10-09 Listed $750,000 FORTMLS
• 2019-08-12 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2019-07-01 Price Changed $750,000 FORTMLS
• 2018-11-19 Listed $795,000 FORTMLS
• 1977-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $21,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,622 · -1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.