6199 N Vera Way · Picture Rocks, AZ 85743

$99,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Manufactured public records · 419 Days on market

Built 1972 1.04 ac lot $65/sqft · 64% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 3BD/2BA manufactured home on a private 1+ acre lot on Tucson's west side, surrounded by beautiful saguaros. Enjoy stunning mountain and sunset views. Landscaped front yard. A great fixer-upper opportunity—make it your own! Come take a look today!

Key facts

• Private lot
• Sunset views
• Mountain views

Tags

• PRIVATE LOT
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• SUNSET VIEWS
• LANDSCAPED FRONT YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $982 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.1% vs local median 5.6% in Picture Rocks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#261 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Marana Unified District (4404) (suburban): math 31% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #83 of 249 in AZ (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Picture Rocks Elementary (math 15% / reading 24%, grade F, #752 of 1,109 statewide, top 70%, 493 students, 67% FRL); Marana Middle School (math 24% / reading 30%, grade F, #97 of 218 statewide, top 45%, 907 students, 44% FRL); Marana High School (math 21% / reading 24%, grade F, #210 of 381 statewide, top 55%, 2,379 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 236 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.5% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 419 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $39k; list at $100k implies a 156% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,999 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 419 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.09%
• DSCR: 2.87
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $274,950
• List price: $99,999
• Delta: -63.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6215 N Van Ark Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+2%)	5mo	$322,000	$205	82
6221 N Van Ark Rd	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,706 (+11%)	1mo	$285,000	$167	73
10305 W Orange Grove Unit #3 Rd	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-12%)	3mo	$200,000	$149	64
10691 W Prickly Pear Ln	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,340 (-13%)	9mo	$225,000	$168	52
10021 W Shidoni Ln	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,638 (+7%)	13mo	$320,000	$195	51
6207 N Van Ark Rd	0.24mi	3/2.5	1,742 (+13%)	18mo	$330,000	$189	49
10003 W Horse Mesa Trail Trl	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-12%)	10mo	$248,000	$185	43
10000 W Picture Rocks Rd	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-12%)	15mo	$200,000	$149	33
6370 N Van Ark Rd	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,758 (+14%)	24mo	$340,000	$193	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $41,300
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.46×
• Total profit: $96,837
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85743

• Home prices YoY: -26.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 236
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,024 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $610/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $982

Break-even live

Break-even rent $781

Max offer price $99,999

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,039	-5% $1,010	+0% $982	+5% $954	+10% $925
Rent	-10% $822	-5% $902	+0% $982	+5% $1,062	+10% $1,142
Rate	-1.0pp $1,032	-0.5pp $1,007	base $982	+0.5pp $956	+1.0pp $930

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $99,999 Active 419 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,999 Active 416 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,999 Active 415 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,999 Active 414 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,999 Active 413 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,999 Active 411 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,999 Active 410 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,999 Active 408 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,999 Active 407 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,999 Active 406 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,999 Active 405 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,999 Active 402 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,999 Active 401 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,999 Active 400 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,999 Active 399 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,999 Active 398 DOM
17. 2025-11-27
    price $99,999 261-char remark

    Show marketing remark (261 chars)

    Spacious 3BD/2BA manufactured home on a private 1+ acre lot on Tucson's west side, surrounded by beautiful saguaros. Enjoy stunning mountain and sunset views. Landscaped front yard. A great fixer-upper opportunity—make it your own! Come take a look today!

18. 2025-07-29
    price $120,000 261-char remark

    Show marketing remark (261 chars)

    Spacious 3BD/2BA manufactured home on a private 1+ acre lot on Tucson's west side, surrounded by beautiful saguaros. Enjoy stunning mountain and sunset views. Landscaped front yard. A great fixer-upper opportunity—make it your own! Come take a look today!

19. 2025-07-01
    status Active 261-char remark

    Show marketing remark (261 chars)

    Spacious 3BD/2BA manufactured home on a private 1+ acre lot on Tucson's west side, surrounded by beautiful saguaros. Enjoy stunning mountain and sunset views. Landscaped front yard. A great fixer-upper opportunity—make it your own! Come take a look today!

20. 2025-07-01
    historical 261-char remark

    Show marketing remark (261 chars)

    Spacious 3BD/2BA manufactured home on a private 1+ acre lot on Tucson's west side, surrounded by beautiful saguaros. Enjoy stunning mountain and sunset views. Landscaped front yard. A great fixer-upper opportunity—make it your own! Come take a look today!

21. 2025-04-28
    listed $135,000 Active 261-char remark

    Show marketing remark (261 chars)

    Spacious 3BD/2BA manufactured home on a private 1+ acre lot on Tucson's west side, surrounded by beautiful saguaros. Enjoy stunning mountain and sunset views. Landscaped front yard. A great fixer-upper opportunity—make it your own! Come take a look today!

22. 2013-05-29
    soldstatus $39,000 149-char remark

    Show marketing remark (149 chars)

    Beautiful Acre plus with many saguaros and Ironwood Trees. House needs work but has tons of potential. Landscaped front yard. Plenty of room to grow.

23. 2013-05-01
    historical 149-char remark

    Show marketing remark (149 chars)

    Beautiful Acre plus with many saguaros and Ironwood Trees. House needs work but has tons of potential. Landscaped front yard. Plenty of room to grow.

24. 2012-10-12
    listed $49,500 149-char remark

    Show marketing remark (149 chars)

    Beautiful Acre plus with many saguaros and Ironwood Trees. House needs work but has tons of potential. Landscaped front yard. Plenty of room to grow.

25. 1988-08-09
    soldstatus $35,000
26. 1988-08-01
    soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $610 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $660 · $55/mo
• Expected delta: +$50/yr (+$4/mo · 8.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,287
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,601
• − Property taxes: −$610
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,943
• − Management: −$1,943
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $10,781
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,587
• After-tax cash flow: $9,197/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marana Unified District (4404)
• NCES district ID: 0404630
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $65,282
• Composite: 30.96/100
• National rank: #6103
• State rank: #83 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Picture Rocks

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #261
• US rank: #23370

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Picture Rocks, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 31,300
• Household income: $90,093
• Rent vs Own: 13.7% rent · 86.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 378.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 15% Asian 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Chinese 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.76%
• Current HPI: 271.2845
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.47%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+185.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-27 Price Changed $99,999 MLSSAZ
• 2025-07-29 Price Changed $120,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-07-01 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2025-07-01 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-04-28 Listed $135,000 MLSSAZ
• 2013-05-29 Sold (MLS) $39,000 MLSSAZ
• 2013-05-01 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2012-10-12 Listed $49,500 MLSSAZ
• 1988-08-09 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 1988-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $610 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.