9039 W Swan Cir · Brentwood, MO 63144

$149,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 964 sqft · Condo public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1950 $155/sqft · 30% below area Est $211k · 30% under $402/mo HOA · 23% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lovely main floor condo is in the heart of sought-after Brentwood Forest, centrally located with easy access to major highways. Freshly painted throughout. New carpet in both bedrooms. Washer and dryer included. One of largest deck in the community. New water heater installed November 2023. Self occupy only. HOA does not currently allow rentals. Location: Ground Level

Key facts

• Ground level
• Largest deck
• New water heater

Tags

• MAIN FLOOR CONDO
• BRENTWOOD FOREST
• LARGEST DECK
• NEW WATER HEATER
• GROUND LEVEL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-78 ($-936/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $135k (9.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $135k (9.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.8% in Brentwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#6 in MO, #689 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-.
• Brentwood (suburban): math 65% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #4 of 324 in MO (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 130 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 23% of rent; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,226 (9.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.33%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $211,434
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: -29.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-31,474
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-43,184
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63144

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 130
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,785 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$176 /mo · $2,116/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$402
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $-78

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,884

Max offer price $135,226

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $6	-5% $-36	+0% $-78	+5% $-120	+10% $-162
Rent	-10% $-219	-5% $-148	+0% $-78	+5% $-7	+10% $63
Rate	-1.0pp $-3	-0.5pp $-40	base $-78	+0.5pp $-117	+1.0pp $-156

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1736 Redbird Cv Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,800	$2.00	44d	1	0.08mi
9071 Wrenwood Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1060	$1,650	$1.56	44d	1	0.15mi
1607 Redbird Cv Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	946	$2,038	$2.15	2d	1	0.18mi
1696 E Swan Cir Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	967	$1,600	$1.65	44d	1	0.30mi
8901 Cardinal Ter Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1004	$1,600	$1.59	11d	1	0.32mi
1469 Bobolink Pl Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	981	$1,700	$1.73	44d	1	0.39mi
1800 S Brentwood Blvd Saint Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1164	$2,105	$1.81	2d	19	0.50mi
9006 Madge Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,100	$2.10	8d	1	0.75mi
8661 Litzsinger Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	910	$1,765	$1.94	44d	1	0.79mi
2501 Mary Ave Brentwood, MO	1.0	1.5	1100	$1,725	$1.57	8d	1	0.81mi
2806 Hilldale Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1104	$2,550	$2.31	2d	1	0.96mi
72 Van Mark Way Brentwood, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	780	$1,249	$1.60	2d	4	0.97mi
9305 Manchester Rd St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	776	$1,445	$1.86	3d	12	1.02mi
1034 N Rock Hill Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	696	$1,650	$2.37	44d	1	1.10mi
927 N Elm Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	828	$1,800	$2.17	21d	1	1.28mi
8056 Davis Dr Unit 80562N Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	840	$1,700	$2.02	44d	1	1.32mi
153 Willis Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1097	$2,100	$1.91	2d	1	1.37mi
7828 Laclede Forest Dr Maplewood, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$1,345	$1.86	4d	2	1.44mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $402 · $4,824/yr
• Likely covers: water
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,000 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,000 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,000 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,000 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-04-30
    status Active 379-char remark

    Show marketing remark (379 chars)

    Lovely main floor condo is in the heart of sought-after Brentwood Forest, centrally located with easy access to major highways. Freshly painted throughout. New carpet in both bedrooms. Washer and dryer included. One of largest deck in the community. New water heater installed November 2023. Self occupy only. HOA does not currently allow rentals. Location: Ground Level

16. 2026-04-15
    listed $155,000 Active 379-char remark

    Show marketing remark (379 chars)

    Lovely main floor condo is in the heart of sought-after Brentwood Forest, centrally located with easy access to major highways. Freshly painted throughout. New carpet in both bedrooms. Washer and dryer included. One of largest deck in the community. New water heater installed November 2023. Self occupy only. HOA does not currently allow rentals. Location: Ground Level

17. 2025-07-16
    listed $185,000 Active
18. 2025-04-01
    historical
19. 2024-12-07
    price $172,000
20. 2024-10-30
    price $175,000
21. 2024-06-25
    price $180,000
22. 2024-05-22
    price $189,000
23. 2024-05-08
    price $194,000
24. 2024-04-17
    listed $199,000 Active
25. 2024-04-17
    historical
26. 2023-03-14
    soldstatus $175,000
27. 2023-03-10
    soldstatus Closed
28. 2023-02-16
    status Pending
29. 2023-02-04
    price $174,900
30. 2023-01-25
    listed $179,900 Active
31. 2000-09-11
    soldstatus $107,000
32. 1996-03-05
    soldstatus $68,000
33. 1985-09-03
    soldstatus
34. 1983-07-01
    soldstatus $53,000
35. 1981-02-01
    soldstatus $48,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,116 · $176/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,116 · $176/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 97% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,421
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$2,116
• − Insurance: −$1,542
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,714
• − Management: −$1,714
• − HOA: −$4,824
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable loss: −$3,169
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$761
• After-tax cash flow: $-175/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brentwood
• NCES district ID: 2905880
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $69,522
• Composite: 57.51/100
• National rank: #1069
• State rank: #4 of 324 in MO

Livability — Brentwood

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #689

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute C Cost of living B Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brentwood, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 9,505
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 9,505
• Household income: $104,438
• Rent vs Own: 40.7% rent · 59.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 310.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Two or more races 10% Asian 7% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -411.33%
• Current HPI: 207.0145
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.49%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+222.9% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Listed $155,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-16 Listed $185,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-01 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-07 Price Changed $172,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-30 Price Changed $175,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-25 Price Changed $180,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-22 Price Changed $189,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-08 Price Changed $194,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-17 Listed $199,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-17 Coming Soon — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-14 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 2023-03-10 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-16 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-04 Price Changed $174,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-25 Listed $179,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-09-11 Sold (Public Records) $107,000 Public Records
• 1996-03-05 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records
• 1985-09-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1983-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $53,000 Public Records
• 1981-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,116 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.