176 E Grand Ave · Fox Lake, IL 60020

$363,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,400 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 124 Days on market

Built 1956 6,599 sqft lot Est $258k · 41% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +4.4/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Wake up every morning to a breathtaking lake view and end your evenings with glowing sunsets dancing across the water. Located on Mineola Bay, this beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home offers direct access to the entire Chain O' Lakes through neighboring Fox Lake and Nippersink Lake - putting miles of open water right at your fingertips. This home isn't just refreshed - it's been thoughtfully improved inside and out, ready for its next lucky owner. Step inside to discover stylish laminate flooring and neutral, soothing colors that create a warm, inviting feel throughout. The updated kitchen shines with refreshed cabinetry and modern appliances, offering the perfect space to gather,

Key facts

• Direct access
• Attached garage
• Newer roof

Tags

• LAKE VIEW
• DIRECT ACCESS
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• NEWER SIDING
• NEWER ROOF
• ATTACHED GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property not currently leased; Parcel number available
• HOA & community: No master association fee required; Community features include lake and street lights

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (1.5 garage/parking spaces total); Asphalt driveway
• Security: CO detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 100 amp electric service with circuit breakers; Cable available
• Home design: Detached single-family home; Single-story design; Fee simple ownership; Rehab completed in 2022
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Concrete perimeter foundation; Built 61–70 years ago
• Exterior features: Landscaped and sloped yard; Fenced lot; Water view

Interior

• Kitchen: Eating area/table space in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level (15 x 12); Second bedroom on main level (11 x 10); Third bedroom on main level (12 x 12)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Finished basement with recreation and game room; Full attic; Window screens; Sump pump; CO detectors; Cable-ready
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with gas dryer hookup and utility sink; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $363k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $185k (49.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (45.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (49.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.1% vs local median 6.0% in Fox Lake — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#247 in IL, #4,462 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute A; Watch: amenities D+, schools F, health & safety F.
• Grant Chsd 124 (suburban): math 23% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #296 of 620 in IL (top 48%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 948 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (424 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($319k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $122k; list at $363k implies a 199% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,987 (49.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.24%
• DSCR: 0.50
• GRM: 15.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $257,600
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10 S Hickory Ave	0.08mi	3/1.0	1,472 (+5%)	9mo	$185,000	$126	78
31 Lakeside Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+7%)	2mo	$705,000	$470	71
18 Lakeside Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,403 (+0%)	24mo	$420,000	$299	66
416 N Lincoln Ave	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,320 (-6%)	14mo	$271,000	$205	66
34 Hawthorne Ln	0.32mi	3/1.0	1,319 (-6%)	13mo	$285,000	$216	62
19 Arlington Ln	0.72mi	3/1.5	1,420 (+1%)	4mo	$256,500	$181	61
29 S Hickory Ave	0.19mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,195 (-15%)	4mo	$180,000	$151	59
46 Hawthorne Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,301 (-7%)	23mo	$287,197	$221	51
40 Lippincott Rd	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,548 (+11%)	21mo	$254,900	$165	47
43 Lippincott Rd	0.40mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,608 (+15%)	6mo	$275,000	$171	41
51 Pleasant Oak Ct	0.70mi	3/1.5	1,328 (-5%)	22mo	$245,000	$184	40
23 Arlington Ln	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,512 (+8%)	17mo	$259,000	$171	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -38.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.21×
• Total profit: $-122,933
• Equity at exit: $54,124

10-year hold

• IRR: -56.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.86×
• Total profit: $-189,409
• Equity at exit: $31,386

Cash invested: $101,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60020

• Home prices YoY: -30.7%
• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 15.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,981 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,904
• Tax from tax record: −$462 /mo · $5,546/yr
• Insurance: −$151
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $-1,008

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,256

Max offer price $184,987

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-802	-5% $-905	+0% $-1,008	+5% $-1,110	+10% $-1,213
Rent	-10% $-1,164	-5% $-1,086	+0% $-1,008	+5% $-929	+10% $-851
Rate	-1.0pp $-825	-0.5pp $-915	base $-1,008	+0.5pp $-1,102	+1.0pp $-1,197

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $90,750
• Closing costs: $10,890
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
184 E Grand Ave Unit 1374785P Fox Lake, IL	4.0	3.0	1593	$7,875	$4.94	7d	1	0.07mi
28 Glen Ave Fox Lake, IL	3.0	1.0	1212	$2,300	$1.90	8d	1	0.58mi
59 Mariner Ln Fox Lake, IL	2.0	1.5	1152	$1,975	$1.71	0d	1	0.68mi
87 Maude Ave Unit B Fox Lake, IL	2.0	1.5	1092	$1,700	$1.56	16d	1	0.85mi
525 Circle Dr Unit 1374784P Fox Lake, IL	3.0	2.0	1140	$4,830	$4.24	0d	1	0.95mi
6 N Pistakee Lake Rd Fox Lake, IL	2.0	1.0	1500	$1,750	$1.17	0d	1	0.97mi
133 Arthur Ave Fox Lake, IL	2.0	3.0	1800	$2,000	$1.11	3d	1	0.98mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $363,000 Active 124 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $363,000 Active 121 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $363,000 Active 120 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $363,000 Active 119 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $363,000 Active 118 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $363,000 Active 116 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $363,000 Active 112 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $363,000 Active 111 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $363,000 Active 110 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $363,000 Active 107 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $363,000 Active 106 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $363,000 Active 105 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $363,000 Active 104 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $363,000 Active 103 DOM
15. 2026-02-26
    price $363,000
16. 2026-02-17
    listed $368,000 Active
17. 2024-11-21
    historical
18. 2024-10-27
    price
19. 2024-10-02
    listed Active
20. 2024-01-17
    soldstatus $121,500
21. 2023-10-24
    soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,546 · $462/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,893 · $574/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,347/yr (+$112/mo · 24.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,770
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,334
• − Property taxes: −$5,546
• − Insurance: −$2,482
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,902
• − Management: −$1,902
• − Depreciation: −$10,560
• Taxable loss: −$18,954
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,549
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,543/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grant Chsd 124
• NCES district ID: 1717340
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $59,450
• Composite: 22.95/100
• National rank: #7989
• State rank: #296 of 620 in IL

Livability — Fox Lake

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #247
• US rank: #4462

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fox Lake, IL
• City population: 10,846
• Population (ZIP): 10,846

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 700,217 people
• By 2030: 693,290 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 673,588 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 643,556 · -8.1%
• By 2075: 562,792 · -19.6%
• By 2100: 457,715 · -34.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 10% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 15% Portuguese 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.8) · D 59.7% · R 38.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.1pp toward D · 2008: 19.6pp · 2024: 20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.8 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+20.3 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+19.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -97.19%
• Current HPI: 219.6301
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+458.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $363,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-17 Listed $368,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-21 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-27 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-02 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-17 Sold (Public Records) $121,500 Public Records
• 2023-10-24 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $5,546 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.