305 S Church St · Blue Ridge, TX 75424

$193,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1981 Est $173k · 12% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• ARV discount +2.2/15.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move in ready!!! This darling 2 bedroom 1 bath home has been fully updated and is ready for its new owner. New roof, new HVAC, new water heater and new kitchen appliances. Home sits on approximately one quarter acre. Plenty of space to build a garage, a workshop, barn or whatever your heart desires. No HOA! This home is close to the heart of Blue Ridge and 30 minutes from Historical Downtown McKinney. Great home for first time home buyers or a rental property. Easy to show and won't last long!

Key facts

• Remodeled
• New furnace
• Updated

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• REMODELED
• UPDATED
• NEW AIR CONDITIONER
• NEW FURNACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $194k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-225 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $154k (20.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (26.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $142k (26.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.3% in Blue Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,305 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Blue Ridge ISD (rural): math 52% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #154 of 826 in TX (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 205 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $141,698 (26.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.98%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $173,000
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
305 N Church St	0.38mi	2/1.0	1,056 (+6%)	0mo	$183,000	$173	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $91,101
• Equity at exit: $174,320

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.16×
• Total profit: $279,582
• Equity at exit: $375,928

Cash invested: $54,180 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75424

• Home prices YoY: 8.3%
• Active inventory: 205
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,417 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,015
• Tax from tax record: −$249 /mo · $2,985/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $-225

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,701

Max offer price $153,811

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,375
• Closing costs: $5,805
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
505 S Texas 78 Business Unit 78 Blue Ridge, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,495	$1.87	1d	1	0.22mi
219 E Pritchard Ln Unit 219 Blue Ridge, TX	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,000	$0.95	24d	1	0.27mi
223 E Pritchard #225 Blue Ridge, TX	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,350	$1.29	43d	1	0.30mi
303 W Davis St Blue Ridge, TX	2.0	1.0	828	$1,400	$1.69	1d	1	0.45mi
303 W Davis St Blue Ridge, TX	2.0	1.0	828	$1,400	$1.69	24d	1	0.45mi
313 N Church St Blue Ridge, TX	3.0	1.0	1114	$1,475	$1.32	1d	1	0.48mi
2 Bowling Ln Blue Ridge, TX	3.0	2.5	1442	$1,750	$1.21	1d	1	0.54mi
6 Bowling Ln Blue Ridge, TX	3.0	3.0	1442	$1,750	$1.21	1d	1	0.55mi
1621 Fawn Creek Dr Blue Ridge, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1681	$1,975	$1.17	1d	5	1.36mi
1701 Teton River Dr Blue Ridge, TX	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,895	$1.33	43d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $193,500 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $193,500 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $193,500 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $193,500 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on marketlisting id $193,500 Active 1 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $193,500 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   remarks 413-char remark
8. 2026-06-09
   listed $193,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,985 · $249/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,541 · $295/mo
• Expected delta: +$556/yr (+$46/mo · 18.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,004
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,839
• − Property taxes: −$2,985
• − Insurance: −$968
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,360
• − Management: −$1,360
• − Depreciation: −$5,629
• Taxable loss: −$6,137
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,473
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,223/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blue Ridge ISD
• NCES district ID: 4810590
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $53,738
• Composite: 43.99/100
• National rank: #2894
• State rank: #154 of 826 in TX

Livability — Blue Ridge

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1305
• US rank: #22618

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Blue Ridge, TX
• City population: 3,908
• Population (ZIP): 3,908

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 27.07%
• Current HPI: 354.45
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+54.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $193,500 FSBO.com
• 2021-10-07 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2021-09-23 Pending — NTREIS
• 2021-09-01 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2021-08-26 Listed $189,000 NTREIS
• 2021-01-12 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2020-12-18 Pending — NTREIS
• 2020-12-08 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2020-10-27 Listed $125,000 NTREIS
• 2000-07-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,985 · -5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.