707 E Lake St · Brownfield, TX 79316

$45,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,358 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1950 8,276 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

With a little tlc this can be a comfortable home in an established neighborhood. Priced to make allowance for needed repairs

Key facts

• 8,276 sq ft lot
• Built 1950
• Listed 19 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is approximately 0.19 acres; Public maintained paved city street access

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; One-story home; Wood siding construction; Entry type not specified; Facing direction not specified
• Construction: Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built with wood siding
• Exterior features: No notable exterior features listed; Other exterior features

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace heating; No cooling
• Interior features: See remarks; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $643 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#298 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities D, commute F.
• Brownfield ISD (town): math 26% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #704 of 826 in TX (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Oak Grove El (math 25% / reading 24%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 677 students, 87% FRL); Brownfield Middle (math 24% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,222 of 1,662 statewide, top 74%, 354 students, 83% FRL); Brownfield H S (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #963 of 1,632 statewide, top 61%, 443 students, 78% FRL).
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2 units permitted in Terry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Terry County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $44,325 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.78% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 61.26%
• DSCR: 3.73
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 60.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.68×
• Total profit: $33,712
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 64.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.53×
• Total profit: $82,265
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79316

• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,250 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,080/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $643

Break-even live

Break-even rent $436

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $669	-5% $656	+0% $643	+5% $630	+10% $618
Rent	-10% $544	-5% $594	+0% $643	+5% $693	+10% $742
Rate	-1.0pp $666	-0.5pp $655	base $643	+0.5pp $632	+1.0pp $620

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
704 E Yucca Ln Brownfield, TX	3.0	2.0	1068	$1,500	$1.40	45d	1	0.64mi
1006 E Lons St Brownfield, TX	3.0	2.0	1356	$1,050	$0.77	45d	1	0.66mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 124-char remark
2. 2026-04-29
   listed $45,000 Active 124-char remark
3. 1991-01-04
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,080 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,080 · $90/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,006
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$1,080
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,200
• − Management: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $7,470
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,793
• After-tax cash flow: $5,925/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brownfield ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811610
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $37,385
• Composite: 22.1/100
• National rank: #8180
• State rank: #704 of 826 in TX

Livability — Brownfield

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #298
• US rank: #6822

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brownfield, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,907

Population outlook (Terry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,220 people
• By 2030: 13,500 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 14,327 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 15,340 · +16.0%
• By 2075: 18,459 · +39.6%
• By 2100: 20,433 · +54.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (57%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 57% White 37% Two or more races 32% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% German 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 34% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Terry

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.2) · D 17.2% · R 82.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.1pp toward R · 2008: -35.0pp · 2024: -65.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.2 2020: R+56.9 2016: R+49.4 2012: R+41.6 2008: R+35.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.34%
• Current HPI: 104.1813
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2026-05-19 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $45,000 LARMLS
• 1991-01-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+10.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,080 · +29.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.