10112 Minnow Ray Dr · Quail Ridge, FL 34638

$240,400

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,398 sqft · Townhouse · 67 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This convenient single-story home features two bedrooms, including a privately situated owner's suite with an attached full bathroom and walk-in closet. On the opposite side, there is an open floorplan showcasing the stylish kitchen, dining room and inviting family room in a cohesive flow to deliver seamless everyday living. Nearby are glass-sliders that lead to a cozy covered patio, ideal for outdoor activities.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Stylish kitchen

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY HOME
• OWNER'S SUITE
• ATTACHED FULL BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• STYLISH KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 10112 Minnow Ray Dr, Land O' Lakes, FL 34638; Virtual tour available
• Financial info: List price $241,900
• HOA & community: No HOA or community details provided

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 total parking space)
• Security: No security details provided
• Utilities: No water, sewer, or power details provided
• Home design: Single-family home (Sunrise II plan); Spec home — Active listing
• Construction: New construction (2026 listing); No specific construction materials, roof, or foundation details provided
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,398 (listed)

Interior

• Kitchen: No kitchen appliance details provided
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: No flooring details provided
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No heating or cooling details provided
• Interior features: Spec new-construction home (Sunrise II plan)
• Laundry & utility: No laundry or utility details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $240k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5 ($54/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (12.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (12.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.9% in Quail Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#715 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Connerton Elementary School (math 48% / reading 57%, grade C-, #976 of 2,144 statewide, top 46%, 958 students, 39% FRL); Pine View Middle School (math 63% / reading 52%, grade B, #157 of 571 statewide, top 28%, 1,170 students, 32% FRL); Land O' Lakes High School (math 56% / reading 64%, grade C+, #106 of 667 statewide, top 16%, 2,248 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 48% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.8%/yr); 723 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $210,871 (12.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.08%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-44,815
• Equity at exit: $35,844

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-62,405
• Equity at exit: $20,785

Cash invested: $67,312 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34638

• Home prices YoY: -16.0%
• Rents YoY: -3.8%
• Active inventory: 723
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,109 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,261
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$300 /mo · $3,606/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $5

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,103

Max offer price $240,400

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $171	-5% $88	+0% $5	+5% $-79	+10% $-162
Rent	-10% $-162	-5% $-79	+0% $5	+5% $88	+10% $171
Rate	-1.0pp $126	-0.5pp $66	base $5	+0.5pp $-58	+1.0pp $-121

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,100
• Closing costs: $7,212
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17512 Shirewood Way Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1448	$2,200	$1.52	25d	1	0.81mi
11028 Crescent Deer Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,075	$1.24	16d	1	1.17mi
11028 Crescent Deer Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,075	$1.24	26d	1	1.17mi
11071 Crescent Deer Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,100	$1.26	25d	1	1.21mi
11070 Crescent Deer Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$1,950	$1.17	26d	1	1.21mi
11147 Crescent Deer Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$1,995	$1.19	26d	1	1.28mi
9896 Dancing Goat Pl Land O' Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1486	$2,175	$1.46	26d	1	1.32mi
11236 Crescent Deer Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,000	$1.20	16d	1	1.36mi
11262 Crescent Deer Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,195	$1.31	6d	1	1.39mi
10981 Wishing Cloud Rd Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1787	$2,000	$1.12	22d	1	1.44mi
17608 Nectar Flume Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,100	$1.29	26d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $240,400 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $240,400 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $240,200 Active 66 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $240,100 Active 65 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $240,100 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $240,100 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $240,100 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $240,100 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $240,100 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $240,000 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $240,000 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $240,000 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $242,000 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $242,000 Active 49 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,305
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,466
• − Property taxes: −$3,606
• − Insurance: −$1,202
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,024
• − Management: −$2,024
• − Depreciation: −$6,993
• Taxable loss: −$4,012
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$963
• After-tax cash flow: $1,017/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story townhouse is in good condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. Minor touch-ups and maintenance can further enhance its value for resale or rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value
• Rental Replace the blinds — New blinds can improve the rental experience and attract tenants

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value ↑
• Rental Replace the blinds — New blinds can improve the rental experience and attract tenants ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Quail Ridge

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #715
• US rank: #15264

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,644
• Household income: $123,899
• Rent vs Own: 16.4% rent · 83.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 354.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 16% Black 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 4% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.02%
• Current HPI: 299.2018
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.78%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B