9302 Shumard Dr · Woodville, FL 32305

$109,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,250 sqft · Land · 7 Days on market

Built 1985 0.59 ac lot ↓ 26% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This is an excellent opportunity to obtain something at a steal.   Take a look at he pictures.   This home was well maintained and taken care of.   Everything is about 3 years old inside having been remodeled in 2022. This is in a secluded area at the end of the private road.   It backs up to a private reserve as well. THIS IS YOUR NEXT PROJECT! This home will not last long at this price! Sight unseen offers take priority.

Key facts

• Secluded area
• Remodeled in 2022
• 0.59 acre lot

Tags

• REMODELED IN 2022
• SECLUDED AREA
• BACKS UP TO A PRIVATE RESERVE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Offered for sale

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-story; Double wide mobile home
• Exterior features: Publicly maintained road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 2 (11x09); Bedroom 3 (10x11)
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Wall/window cooling unit(s)
• Interior features: Vinyl flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $109k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $600 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $109k).
• Cap rate 12.9% vs local median 4.3% in Woodville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#581 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Leon (urban): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #33 of 73 in FL (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 105 active listings in the ZIP; 1,765 units permitted in Leon County in 2024 (975 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($48k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $754 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Leon County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.57%
• DSCR: 2.05
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.67×
• Total profit: $20,497
• Equity at exit: $16,252

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.19×
• Total profit: $66,911
• Equity at exit: $9,424

Cash invested: $30,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32305

• Home prices YoY: -22.5%
• Active inventory: 105
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,608 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$572
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $644/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $600

Break-even live

Break-even rent $849

Max offer price $109,000

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $661	-5% $630	+0% $600	+5% $569	+10% $538
Rent	-10% $473	-5% $536	+0% $600	+5% $663	+10% $727
Rate	-1.0pp $654	-0.5pp $627	base $600	+0.5pp $571	+1.0pp $543

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,250
• Closing costs: $3,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   pricedays on market $109,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   remarks 426-char remark
6. 2026-06-14
   listed $115,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $644 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $905 · $75/mo
• Expected delta: +$261/yr (+$22/mo · 40.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,295
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,106
• − Property taxes: −$644
• − Insurance: −$545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,544
• − Management: −$1,544
• − Depreciation: −$3,171
• Taxable income: $5,742
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,378
• After-tax cash flow: $5,817/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Leon
• NCES district ID: 1201110
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,339
• Composite: 42.84/100
• National rank: #3131
• State rank: #33 of 73 in FL

Livability — Woodville

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #581
• US rank: #10723

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Woodville, FL
• County: Leon County · 294,472 people
• Metro: Tallahassee, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,384
• Household income: $48,045
• Rent vs Own: 40.7% rent · 59.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 654.0

Population outlook (Leon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,507 people
• By 2030: 330,677 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 358,465 · +13.6%
• By 2050: 386,804 · +22.6%
• By 2075: 465,480 · +47.5%
• By 2100: 519,959 · +64.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 57% White 33% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Hispanic 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Leon

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.8) · D 60.3% · R 38.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 24.3pp · 2024: 21.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.8 2020: D+28.3 2016: D+25.1 2012: D+23.6 2008: D+24.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -63.40%
• Current HPI: 218.4834
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tallahassee, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-25.8% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $115,000 CATRS
• 2026-02-26 Listing Removed — CATRS
• 2025-09-30 Price Changed $169,900 CATRS
• 2025-07-31 Listed $179,900 CATRS
• 2025-03-15 Listing Removed — CATRS
• 2025-01-30 Price Changed $155,000 CATRS
• 2024-10-12 Price Changed $170,000 CATRS
• 2024-08-26 Price Changed $185,000 CATRS
• 2024-08-10 Listed $199,000 CATRS
• 2023-04-20 Sold (MLS) $150,000 CATRS
• 2023-03-03 Relisted — CATRS
• 2023-02-20 Price Changed $150,000 CATRS
• 2023-01-11 Relisted — CATRS
• 2022-12-12 Contingent — CATRS
• 2022-12-09 Listed $154,900 CATRS

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $644 · +52.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.