14249 Desert Sage Dr · Horizon City, TX 79928

$180,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,425 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 2003 6,102 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

I invite you to view this home located in an established subdivision in Horizon City. The property features three bedrooms, two full bathrooms, refrigerated air, double car garage, and a spacious backyard. Please note that the home requires some repairs and upgrades, which is reflected in the current sales price.

Key facts

• Refrigerated air
• Repairs and upgrades
• Spacious backyard

Tags

• REFRIGERATED AIR
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• REPAIRS AND UPGRADES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Fixer upper; See remarks
• HOA & community: No HOA fees

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Has heating; Has cooling
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Stucco and frame construction; Rolled/hot mop and flat roof; Total building area 1425
• Exterior features: Walled backyard; Back yard fencing; Open patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing gas oven; Microwave
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Refrigerated cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Pantry; Walk-in closets; Single-pane windows

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $11 ($132/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $175k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#619 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Clint ISD (suburban): math 14% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #792 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Desert Hills El (math 23% / reading 24%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 907 students, 78% FRL); Horizon Middle (math 16% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,491 of 1,662 statewide, top 91%, 670 students, 84% FRL); Horizon H S (math 14% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,397 of 1,632 statewide, top 87%, 1,677 students, 85% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 59% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 2098 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,196 units permitted in El Paso County in 2024 (143 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• El Paso County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,600 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.26%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.93% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-28,426
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-23,690
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79928

• Home prices YoY: -16.9%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 2098
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,887 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$461 /mo · $5,527/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $11

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,873

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $113	-5% $62	+0% $11	+5% $-40	+10% $-91
Rent	-10% $-138	-5% $-64	+0% $11	+5% $86	+10% $160
Rate	-1.0pp $102	-0.5pp $57	base $11	+0.5pp $-36	+1.0pp $-83

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
732 Desert Sage Dr Horizon City, TX	4.0	2.0	1420	$1,635	$1.15	4d	1	0.18mi
732 Desert Sage Dr Horizon City, TX	4.0	2.0	1420	$1,635	$1.15	12d	1	0.18mi
14324 Desert Shadow Dr Horizon City, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,600	$1.28	16d	1	0.26mi
644 Paseo Dulce Ave El Paso, TX	4.0	2.0	1509	$2,200	$1.46	45d	1	0.52mi
840 Paseo Dulce Ave El Paso, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,800	$1.12	45d	1	0.65mi
909 Larkhall Pl El Paso, TX	4.0	2.0	1614	$1,900	$1.18	45d	1	0.73mi
424 Cutler Pl Horizon City, TX	3.0	2.0	1874	$1,895	$1.01	4d	1	0.75mi
544 Cedarwood Ave El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1523	$1,795	$1.18	45d	1	0.75mi
13865 Lorenz Ave El Paso, TX	4.0	2.0	1510	$2,000	$1.32	45d	1	0.77mi
14044 Peter Noyes Dr El Paso, TX	4.0	2.0	1594	$1,650	$1.04	5d	1	0.90mi
305 De Palma Pl El Paso, TX	4.0	2.0	1467	$1,635	$1.11	45d	1	0.91mi
304 Jim Hofher Pl El Paso, TX	4.0	2.0	1466	$1,600	$1.09	5d	1	0.92mi
1088 Sky River St El Paso, TX	4.0	2.0	1651	$1,865	$1.13	4d	1	0.98mi
14321 Bill Lazor Pkwy El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1164	$1,925	$1.65	45d	1	1.06mi
1173 Summer Rain St Horizon City, TX	4.0	2.0	1504	$1,900	$1.26	16d	1	1.10mi
1181 Summer Rain St Horizon City, TX	3.0	2.0	1490	$1,750	$1.17	45d	1	1.11mi
1188 Summer Rain St Horizon City, TX	3.0	2.0	1738	$2,000	$1.15	16d	1	1.12mi
13992 Margaret Ponce Ave El Paso, TX	4.0	2.5	1765	$2,500	$1.42	4d	1	1.15mi
13709 Paseo Sereno Dr El Paso, TX	4.0	2.0	1757	$1,800	$1.02	25d	1	1.19mi
737 Sculcoates St Horizon City, TX	3.0	2.0	1354	$1,735	$1.28	45d	1	1.21mi
13668 Garforth Ave El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1364	$1,675	$1.23	16d	1	1.31mi
14364 Nick Drahos Ln El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1066	$1,700	$1.59	13d	1	1.32mi
1217 Golden Summer Ct Horizon City, TX	4.0	3.0	1754	$1,950	$1.11	45d	1	1.33mi
13972 Summer Valley Dr El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1723	$2,300	$1.33	16d	1	1.36mi
13677 Holbeck St El Paso, TX	4.0	2.0	1869	$2,060	$1.10	45d	1	1.37mi
13520 Eastlake Blvd Horizon City, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,850	$1.92	4d	9	1.40mi
13961 Victory Sky Ave El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1330	$1,850	$1.39	16d	1	1.43mi
13988 Summer Hail Ave El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1602	$2,200	$1.37	4d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $180,000 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   status $180,000 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-04-24
   listed $180,000 Active 318-char remark
8. 2018-12-06
   historical
9. 2011-06-28
   soldstatus
10. 2011-04-18
    historical
11. 2011-04-17
    listed $115,000
12. 2007-12-13
    listed $96,950

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,527 · $461/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,527 · $461/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥100°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,641
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$5,527
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,811
• − Management: −$1,811
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable loss: −$2,728
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$655
• After-tax cash flow: $787/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clint ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814430
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $37,490
• Composite: 15.03/100
• National rank: #9356
• State rank: #792 of 826 in TX

Livability — Horizon City

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #619
• US rank: #11815

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Horizon City, TX
• County: El Paso County · 761,266 people
• City population: 86,599
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• Population (ZIP): 86,599
• Household income: $76,643
• Rent vs Own: 13.4% rent · 86.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 838.0

Population outlook (El Paso County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 897,899 people
• By 2030: 922,694 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 960,492 · +7.0%
• By 2050: 982,919 · +9.5%
• By 2075: 997,266 · +11.1%
• By 2100: 900,630 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 89% Two or more races 39% White 7% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 84%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada
• Languages at home: 25% English-only · Spanish 74% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · El Paso

• 2024 margin: D (+15.1) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.4pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.1 2020: D+35.1 2016: D+43.2 2012: D+32.6 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -40.72%
• Current HPI: 200.6454
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.93%
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+85.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Relisted — GEPARMLS
• 2026-05-28 Pending — GEPARMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $180,000 GEPARMLS
• 2018-12-06 Listing Removed — GEPARMLS
• 2011-06-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-04-18 Listing Removed — GEPARMLS
• 2011-04-17 Listed $115,000 GEPARMLS
• 2007-12-13 Listed $96,950 GEPARMLS

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,527 · +10.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.