7 & 9 Dublin St · Oswego, NY 13126

$159,900

5 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,252 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 64 Days on market

Built 1900 2,482 sqft lot Est $138k · 16% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.8/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.3/15.0

Listing remarks

Investment opportunity. A pair of partly remodeled homes, fully permitted as rentals -- ready to be finished! The home at #7 Dublin has 4 bedrooms, 1 Bathroom, 1st floor laundry, updates to kitchen/flooring/bathroom. This home needs a new heating system, and could benefit from upgrades to entries/porches and additional finish work. The home at #9 Dublin has 3 bedrooms, 1 bath, 1st floor laundry -- ready for an interior remodel! Located in an area popular with SUNY Oswego Students, these home had been used as student rentals in years past. Cash or Rehab Loan recommended for purchase.

Key facts

• Updates to kitchen
• Interior remodel
• Updates to bathroom

Tags

• FULLY PERMITTED AS RENTALS
• UPDATES TO KITCHEN
• UPDATES TO FLOORING
• UPDATES TO BATHROOM
• NEW HEATING SYSTEM
• INTERIOR REMODEL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $846 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.6% vs local median 8.8% in Oswego — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#265 in NY, #4,189 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, commute F.
• Oswego City School District (town): math 39% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #465 of 590 in NY (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+19.2%/yr); 168 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-2.2% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $160k implies a 137% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $150,306 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.69%
• DSCR: 2.01
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $137,720
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
171 W Seneca St	0.36mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,247 (-0%)	9mo	$119,000	$95	66
152 W Cayuga St	0.23mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,360 (+9%)	8mo	$132,000	$97	59
67 W Albany St	0.33mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,332 (+6%)	11mo	$68,000	$51	58
132 W Schuyler St	0.39mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,275 (+2%)	22mo	$154,760	$121	52
26 W 2nd St	0.62mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,296 (+4%)	10mo	$130,000	$100	52
132 W 3rd St	0.37mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,348 (+8%)	20mo	$160,000	$119	46
68 Liberty St	0.36mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,364 (+9%)	19mo	$150,000	$110	43
86 6th Ave	0.73mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,364 (+9%)	15mo	$232,000	$170	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.25% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $45,585
• Equity at exit: $29,214

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.81×
• Total profit: $170,608
• Equity at exit: $23,232

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13126

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: 19.2%
• Active inventory: 168
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,374 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$123 /mo · $1,481/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
• Net cashflow: $846

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,302

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
105 W Oneida St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,540	$1.41	14d	1	0.09mi
175 W 8th St Unit 1 A Oswego, NY	5.0	2.0	1800	$2,625	$1.46	44d	1	0.10mi
130 W Bridge St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,500	$1.47	14d	1	0.16mi
143 Liberty St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,480	$1.46	14d	1	0.16mi
23 NW 9th St Oswego, NY	4.0	1.5	1700	$2,300	$1.35	14d	1	0.21mi
136 W Cayuga St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,300	$1.44	14d	1	0.23mi
153 W Bridge St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	1.5	1800	$2,340	$1.30	14d	1	0.25mi
141 W Cayuga St Oswego, NY	4.0	1.0	1311	$2,100	$1.60	14d	1	0.26mi
161 W Bridge St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1400	$2,240	$1.60	14d	1	0.27mi
103 W 8th St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,400	$1.33	14d	1	0.28mi
85 Liberty St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,500	$1.39	14d	1	0.30mi
148 W Seneca St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,400	$1.33	14d	1	0.32mi
188 W Bridge St Oswego, NY	4.0	1.0	1008	$1,800	$1.79	14d	1	0.34mi
4 Murray St Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1589	$1,800	$1.13	14d	1	0.79mi
7040 State Route 104 Oswego, NY	5.0	2.0	1800	$2,625	$1.46	14d	1	1.09mi
7093 State Route 104 Oswego, NY	5.0	2.0	1800	$2,750	$1.53	14d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-03-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-13
   listed $159,900 Active
3. 2019-07-09
   soldstatus $67,500
4. 2015-06-12
   historical
5. 2015-05-13
   listed $62,900 Active
6. 2012-06-08
   listed $68,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,481 · $123/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,092 · $174/mo
• Expected delta: +$610/yr (+$51/mo · 41.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,482
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$1,481
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,279
• − Management: −$2,279
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable income: $8,036
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,929
• After-tax cash flow: $8,229/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oswego City School District
• NCES district ID: 3622050
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $45,835
• Composite: 38.2/100
• National rank: #4257
• State rank: #465 of 590 in NY

Livability — Oswego

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #265
• US rank: #4189

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oswego, NY
• County: Oswego County · 36,495 people
• City population: 36,495
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• Population (ZIP): 36,495
• Household income: $65,346
• Rent vs Own: 34.5% rent · 65.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1341.0

Population outlook (Oswego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 114,465 people
• By 2030: 109,968 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 99,205 · -13.3%
• By 2050: 87,979 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 65,100 · -43.1%
• By 2100: 47,117 · -58.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oswego

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.2) · D 37.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -24.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.2 2020: R+20.2 2016: R+23.2 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.25%
• Current HPI: 295.5134
• Rent YoY: ▲ 19.18%
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+132.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-01-13 Listed $159,900 CNYIS
• 2019-07-09 Sold (Public Records) $67,500 Public Records
• 2015-06-12 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2015-05-13 Listed $62,900 CNYIS
• 2012-06-08 Listed $68,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

+16.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,481 · +20.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.