1399 Ocean Shores Blvd SW Unit 1S-J · Ocean Shores, WA 98569

$4,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · Timeshare · 239 Days on market

Built 1985 $4/sqft · at area comps Est $4k · at est. $245/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +5.6/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy astounding ocean views from this spacious 1,100 sq ft ground-floor timeshare in the Pacific Ave building! This 2-bed, 2-bath unit sleeps 6 and features an electric fireplace, fully equipped kitchen with bar seating, dining area, in-unit washer/dryer, and personal front and back decks. Shared hot tub on site. Use up to 5 date-specific weeks per year—upcoming stays Dec 26, 2025 & Mar 20, 2026. HOA $245/mo + $175 cleaning per stay, includes Ocean Shores Community Club membership and RCI trade option!

Key facts

• Dining area
• Electric fireplace
• Bar seating

Tags

• ELECTRIC FIREPLACE
• FULLY EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• BAR SEATING
• DINING AREA
• IN-UNIT WASHER DRYER
• PERSONAL FRONT AND BACK DECKS

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $4,500 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$4,321) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath timeshare listed at $4k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $344 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $4k).
• Recommended offer: $4k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 276.4% vs local median 3.1% in Ocean Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#424 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, health & safety C-.
• North Beach School District (rural): math 32% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #236 of 291 in WA (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 653 active listings in the ZIP; 297 units permitted in Grays Harbor County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $31 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $135 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grays Harbor County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $1k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 239 days — a 12% lower offer ($4k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $669/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone VE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $3,960 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 239 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 36.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 276.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 964.76%
• DSCR: 43.93
• GRM: 0.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $4,321
• List price: $4,500
• Delta: 4.14%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1399 Ocean Shores Blvd SW Unit 3S-D	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,100 (0%)	10mo	$10,000	$9	92
1399 Ocean Shores Blvd SW Unit 3N-J	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,100 (0%)	18mo	$9,000	$8	85
1399 Ocean Shores Blvd SW Unit 3N-D	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,100 (0%)	20mo	$10,000	$9	83
1407 Ocean Shores Blvd SW Unit 3S-E	0.03mi	2/2.0	950 (-14%)	4mo	$4,500	$5	72
1407 Ocean Shores Blvd SW Unit 1N-I	0.03mi	2/2.0	950 (-14%)	8mo	$3,000	$3	69
1407 Ocean Shores Blvd SW Unit 2S-I	0.03mi	2/2.0	950 (-14%)	13mo	$2,500	$3	65
1407 Ocean Shores Blvd SW Unit 2S-B	0.03mi	2/2.0	950 (-14%)	18mo	$4,000	$4	61
1407 Ocean Shores Blvd SW Unit 1S-H	0.03mi	2/2.0	950 (-14%)	19mo	$2,250	$2	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 18.28×
• Total profit: $21,767
• Equity at exit: $671

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 40.32×
• Total profit: $49,548
• Equity at exit: $389

Cash invested: $1,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98569

• Home prices YoY: -3.4%
• Active inventory: 653
• Price-to-rent: 0.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,632 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$24
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$6 /mo · $68/yr
• Insurance: −$2
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$669 /mo · $8,028/yr
• HOA: −$245
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $344

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,196

Max offer price $4,500

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $347	-5% $346	+0% $344	+5% $342	+10% $341
Rent	-10% $215	-5% $280	+0% $344	+5% $408	+10% $473
Rate	-1.0pp $346	-0.5pp $345	base $344	+0.5pp $343	+1.0pp $342

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,125
• Closing costs: $135
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $245 · $2,940/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $4,500 Active 239 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $4,500 Active 238 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $4,500 Active 237 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $4,500 Active 236 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $4,500 Active 234 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $4,500 Active 233 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $4,500 Active 230 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $4,500 Active 229 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $4,500 Active 228 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $4,500 Active 225 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $4,500 Active 224 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $4,500 Active 223 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $4,500 Active 222 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $4,500 Active 221 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $4,500 Active 220 DOM
16. 2025-10-22
    listed $4,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone VE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥72°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,581
• − Mortgage interest: −$252
• − Property taxes: −$68
• − Insurance: −$8,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,566
• − Management: −$1,566
• − HOA: −$2,940
• − Depreciation: −$131
• Taxable income: $5,007
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,202
• After-tax cash flow: $2,926/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Beach School District
• NCES district ID: 5305700
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $40,966
• Composite: 34.46/100
• National rank: #10153
• State rank: #236 of 291 in WA

Livability — Ocean Shores

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #424
• US rank: #16852

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime C- Employment C Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ocean Shores, WA
• County: Grays Harbor County · 44,693 people
• City population: 7,187
• Metro: Aberdeen, WA
• Population (ZIP): 7,489
• Household income: $58,378
• Rent vs Own: 17.0% rent · 83.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Grays Harbor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,443 people
• By 2030: 63,255 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 56,466 · -15.0%
• By 2050: 50,516 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 39,296 · -40.9%
• By 2100: 31,142 · -53.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3% Native American 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 8% Iranian 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Grays Harbor

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.0) · D 45.6% · R 51.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: -6.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.0 2020: R+6.6 2016: R+7.1 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.33%
• Current HPI: 380.05
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Aberdeen, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-10-22 Listed $4,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid