9019 Stanley Oak Dr · Sienna, TX 77459

$425,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,615 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 2019 6,769 sqft lot $163/sqft · 8% below area Est $462k · 8% under $132/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.5/30.0
• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Move-in ready and beautifully designed, this 4-bedroom, 3-bath home offers 2,615 sqft of stylish living space in sought-after Sienna. An impressive 8-foot entry door welcomes you into a bright, open floorplan with soaring ceilings, faux wood tile flooring, and abundant natural light. The gourmet kitchen features upgraded grey cabinetry, quartz countertops, a large center island, gas range, and stainless-steel appliances, all flowing seamlessly into the spacious family room, perfect for entertaining. Enjoy outdoor living under the extended covered patio overlooking the fully fenced backyard. The private primary suite includes a spa-like bath and oversized walk-in closet. A secondary bedroom

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Large center island
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• 8 FOOT ENTRY DOOR
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE CENTER ISLAND
• GAS RANGE
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Full ownership
• HOA & community: Homeowners association (annual fee); Association amenities include: clubhouse, recreation facilities, pool, fitness center, tennis and pickleball courts, basketball and sport courts, golf course access, lake/pond, trails, playground, picnic area, dog park, meeting/party room

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway; Garage with opener
• Security: Prewired for security; Security system owned; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Faces southeast; Built in 2019; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and stucco construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Covered deck; Patio; Private yard; Fully fenced backyard; Back yard fencing; Sprinkler/irrigation system; Paved driveway; Patio; Tennis courts on property; Pond on lot; Near golf course; Subdivision setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas range; Microwave; Oven
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First floor); Three additional bedrooms (First floor)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air (electric); Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; High ceilings; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry; Quartz counters; Separate shower; Tub/shower combination; Vanity; Window treatments; Ceiling fans; Kitchen/dining combo; Programmable thermostat; Reverse osmosis system; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room (6 x 5, First floor)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $425k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $250 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $425k).
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.3% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ronald Thornton Middle (math 40% / reading 52%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,529 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1215 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,932/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($129k/yr) (locally 1004% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $425,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.52%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $462,110
• List price: $425,000
• Delta: -8.03%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1919 Waters Branch Dr	0.37mi	4/3.0	2,591 (-1%)	7mo	$439,990	$170	75
8726 Windsong Trail Dr	0.43mi	4/3.0	2,517 (-4%)	5mo	$359,900	$143	70
1706 Country Air Ln	0.55mi	4/3.5	2,700 (+3%)	6mo	$375,000	$139	62
1722 Country Air Ln	0.52mi	4/3.0	2,773 (+6%)	6mo	$419,000	$151	60
8723 Arbor Trail Dr	0.48mi	4/3.0	2,381 (-9%)	3mo	$365,000	$153	60
1610 Country Air Ln	0.59mi	4/3.0	2,388 (-9%)	0mo	$369,900	$155	58
1639 Rosedale Dr	0.65mi	4/3.0	2,763 (+6%)	4mo	$399,950	$145	57
1506 Country Air Ln	0.63mi	4/3.5	2,808 (+7%)	4mo	$425,000	$151	53
8711 Fairbrook Dr	0.60mi	4/3.5	2,413 (-8%)	6mo	$409,900	$170	52
9507 Shaded Tree Dr	0.53mi	4/3.5	2,935 (+12%)	4mo	$445,000	$152	49
2610 Lazy Vine Ln	0.58mi	4/4.5	2,907 (+11%)	1mo	$715,000	$246	47
1743 Country Air Ln	0.52mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,290 (-12%)	6mo	$385,000	$168	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-42,671
• Equity at exit: $89,135

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-48,468
• Equity at exit: $82,560

Cash invested: $119,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1215
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,932 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax from tax record: −$1,108 /mo · $13,302/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$132
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,036
• Net cashflow: $250

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,616

Max offer price $425,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,250
• Closing costs: $12,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	1d	1	0.16mi
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	22d	1	0.36mi
2718 Van Gogh Ln Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	3036	$3,595	$1.18	10d	1	0.72mi
1714 Forest Mist Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	1979	$3,000	$1.52	43d	1	0.97mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $132 · $1,584/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $425,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on marketlisting id $425,000 Active 1 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $425,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   price $425,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $437,900 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $437,900 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $437,900 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $437,900 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $437,900 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $437,900 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $437,900 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $437,900 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $437,900 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $437,900 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    listed $437,900 Active 934-char remark
16. 2026-05-12
    historical
17. 2026-03-12
    listed $449,900 Active
18. 2021-06-08
    soldstatus
19. 2021-06-04
    soldstatus Sold
20. 2021-05-16
    status Pending
21. 2021-05-04
    status Option Pending
22. 2021-04-29
    listed $399,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $13,302 · $1,108/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $13,302 · $1,108/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $59,184
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,807
• − Property taxes: −$13,302
• − Insurance: −$2,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,735
• − Management: −$4,735
• − HOA: −$1,584
• − Depreciation: −$12,364
• Taxable loss: −$3,467
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$832
• After-tax cash flow: $3,832/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sienna, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+6.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-06-16 Listed $425,000 HARMLS
• 2026-06-15 Price Changed $425,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $437,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $449,900 HARMLS
• 2021-06-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-06-04 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-05-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-05-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-04-29 Listed $399,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+48.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $13,302 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.