1594 E County Road 38 · Gosnell, AR 72315

$59,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,172 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1979 1.25 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Your next flip? Or a great homestead? Tucked away at the end of a quiet road, this secluded property offers privacy, space, and incredible potential. Situated on 1.25 acres, there's plenty of room to create the lifestyle you've been envisioning — gardens, workshop, outdoor entertaining, animals, or simply room to roam. The circular drive creates a unique centerpiece ready for your personal touch. Inside, the home features 3 oversized bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, along with multiple flexible living spaces including a front sitting room, spacious living room, and dedicated office/utility room. The kitchen is complemented by a large pantry and attached laundry area, offering a functi

Key facts

• Circular drive
• Large pantry
• Secluded property

Tags

• SECLUDED PROPERTY
• 1.25 ACRES
• CIRCULAR DRIVE
• LARGE PANTRY
• ATTACHED LAUNDRY AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type listed as Residential; Lot size approximately 1.25 acres

Exterior

• Parking: Total of 1 parking space; 1 covered space; Attached carport; Detached carport (1 carport space); Driveway with paved parking
• Utilities: Water: Other; Sewer: Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Fixer condition
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: No exterior features listed; No patio or porch features listed

Interior

• Bathrooms: 21 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No heating listed; No cooling listed
• Interior features: Crawl space basement; No built-in appliances listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $645 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $59k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#67 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Gosnell School District (town): math 46% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #42 of 238 in AR (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 69 units permitted in Mississippi County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $411 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mississippi County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $58,607 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.46%
• DSCR: 3.07
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.89×
• Total profit: $31,490
• Equity at exit: $8,872

10-year hold

• IRR: 49.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.83×
• Total profit: $80,514
• Equity at exit: $5,144

Cash invested: $16,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72315

• Home prices YoY: -32.5%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,390 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$312
• Tax from tax record: −$116 /mo · $1,392/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $645

Break-even live

Break-even rent $573

Max offer price $59,500

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $679	-5% $662	+0% $645	+5% $628	+10% $611
Rent	-10% $535	-5% $590	+0% $645	+5% $700	+10% $755
Rate	-1.0pp $675	-0.5pp $660	base $645	+0.5pp $630	+1.0pp $614

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,875
• Closing costs: $1,785
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $59,500 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $59,500 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $59,500 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $59,500 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $59,500 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $59,500 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $59,500 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $59,500 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $59,500 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $59,500 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $59,500 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    remarks 693-char remark
13. 2026-06-02
    listed $59,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,392 · $116/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,392 · $116/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,677
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,333
• − Property taxes: −$1,392
• − Insurance: −$298
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,334
• − Management: −$1,334
• − Depreciation: −$1,731
• Taxable income: $7,255
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,741
• After-tax cash flow: $6,000/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gosnell School District
• NCES district ID: 0500029
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,829
• Composite: 37.15/100
• National rank: #4484
• State rank: #42 of 238 in AR

Livability — Gosnell

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #67
• US rank: #8504

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 20,100

Population outlook (Mississippi County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,959 people
• By 2030: 36,401 · -6.6%
• By 2040: 31,526 · -19.1%
• By 2050: 27,058 · -30.5%
• By 2075: 17,847 · -54.2%
• By 2100: 11,024 · -71.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 42% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Mississippi

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.4% · R 65.0% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.4pp toward R · 2008: -2.2pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+22.2 2016: R+10.5 2012: R+1.1 2008: R+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.32%
• Current HPI: 175.5603
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $59,500 EARA

Property tax history

-12.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,392 · -12.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.