12 Burning Tree Pl · Palm Coast, FL 32137

$339,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,017 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 59 Days on market

Built 2026 10,450 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.2/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking to build a new home? Look no further! Choose your builder and choose your build time! This lot is located on a cul de sac in a sought after neighborhood with close proximity to Indian Trails sports complex and schools. Don't miss out on this opportunity as there are very few vacant lots left in this neighborhood. Contact property appraiser for tax estimate.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Open floor plan
• 0.24 acre lot

Tags

• BLOCK AND STUCCO CONSTRUCTION
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• COVERED PORCH
• WHITE SHAKER-STYLE CABINETS
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• 2-10 BUILDER'S WARRANTY

🏗️ New construction. The $339,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $521,941.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $340k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $313k (7.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $276k (18.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $276k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#478 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Flagler (rural): math 53% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #20 of 73 in FL (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1600 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,588 units permitted in Flagler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Flagler County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($330k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $340k implies a 376% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $275,786 (18.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.53% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.71%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 15.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $521,941
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27 Burning Bush Dr	0.30mi	4/3.0	2,969 (-2%)	3mo	$529,000	$178	81
23 Burning View Ln	0.33mi	4/3.0	2,712 (-10%)	0mo	$445,000	$164	67
14 Burnley Pl	0.24mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,718 (-10%)	2mo	$459,000	$169	64
55 Bainbridge Ln	0.54mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,943 (-2%)	1mo	$420,000	$143	63
13 Burning Wick Pl	0.10mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,596 (-14%)	10mo	$450,000	$173	59
18 Burning View Ln	0.28mi	4/3.0	2,689 (-11%)	19mo	$395,000	$147	54
29 Bassett Ln	0.49mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,709 (-10%)	2mo	$469,990	$173	52
6 Lakeside Pl E	0.70mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,937 (-3%)	8mo	$665,000	$226	51
7 Lakeside Pl E	0.74mi	4/3.0	2,991 (-1%)	16mo	$690,000	$231	51
21 Lakeside Pl W	0.68mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,706 (-10%)	8mo	$625,000	$231	40
62 Barkley Ln	0.60mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,605 (-14%)	7mo	$385,000	$148	37
191 Birchwood Dr	0.73mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,215 (+7%)	21mo	$540,000	$168	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-165,821
• Equity at exit: $77,823

10-year hold

• IRR: -63.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.81×
• Total profit: $-264,748
• Equity at exit: $45,128

Cash invested: $146,143 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32137

• Home prices YoY: -34.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 1600
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,758 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,737
• Tax from tax record: −$406 /mo · $4,876/yr
• Insurance: −$217
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$579
• Net cashflow: $-1,182

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,254

Max offer price $313,104

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $130,485
• Closing costs: $15,658
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3 Burning View Ln Palm Coast, FL	4.0	2.0	3296	$2,900	$0.88	14d	1	0.20mi
19 Burgess Pl Palm Coast, FL	5.0	3.0	3143	$2,300	$0.73	14d	1	0.97mi
152 Redbud Rd Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.5	2131	$1,850	$0.87	23d	1	1.00mi
7 Biltvue Pl Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	2458	$2,250	$0.92	23d	1	1.02mi
73 Bruce Ln Palm Coast, FL	3.0	3.0	2245	$2,189	$0.98	2d	1	1.14mi
28 Freneau Ln Palm Coast, FL	4.0	3.0	2478	$2,300	$0.93	23d	1	1.22mi
45 Bruning Ln Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	3027	$2,500	$0.83	11d	1	1.26mi
18 Bishop Ln Palm Coast, FL	4.0	3.0	2518	$2,800	$1.11	23d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-04
   listed $339,990 Active
3. 2025-09-16
   soldstatus $71,500 Closed 370-char remark

   Show marketing remark (370 chars)

   Looking to build a new home? Look no further! Choose your builder and choose your build time! This lot is located on a cul de sac in a sought after neighborhood with close proximity to Indian Trails sports complex and schools. Don't miss out on this opportunity as there are very few vacant lots left in this neighborhood. Contact property appraiser for tax estimate.

4. 2025-08-27
   status Pending 370-char remark

   Show marketing remark (370 chars)

   Looking to build a new home? Look no further! Choose your builder and choose your build time! This lot is located on a cul de sac in a sought after neighborhood with close proximity to Indian Trails sports complex and schools. Don't miss out on this opportunity as there are very few vacant lots left in this neighborhood. Contact property appraiser for tax estimate.

5. 2025-08-05
   price $75,000 370-char remark

   Show marketing remark (370 chars)

   Looking to build a new home? Look no further! Choose your builder and choose your build time! This lot is located on a cul de sac in a sought after neighborhood with close proximity to Indian Trails sports complex and schools. Don't miss out on this opportunity as there are very few vacant lots left in this neighborhood. Contact property appraiser for tax estimate.

6. 2025-07-21
   price $82,000 370-char remark

   Show marketing remark (370 chars)

   Looking to build a new home? Look no further! Choose your builder and choose your build time! This lot is located on a cul de sac in a sought after neighborhood with close proximity to Indian Trails sports complex and schools. Don't miss out on this opportunity as there are very few vacant lots left in this neighborhood. Contact property appraiser for tax estimate.

7. 2025-05-30
   listed $87,500 Active 370-char remark

   Show marketing remark (370 chars)

   Looking to build a new home? Look no further! Choose your builder and choose your build time! This lot is located on a cul de sac in a sought after neighborhood with close proximity to Indian Trails sports complex and schools. Don't miss out on this opportunity as there are very few vacant lots left in this neighborhood. Contact property appraiser for tax estimate.

8. 2019-10-04
   soldstatus $325,000
9. 1998-07-10
   soldstatus $19,000
10. 1988-09-01
    soldstatus $21,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,876 · $406/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,876 · $406/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,094
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,237
• − Property taxes: −$4,876
• − Insurance: −$2,610
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,648
• − Management: −$2,648
• − Depreciation: −$15,184
• Taxable loss: −$24,107
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,786
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,401/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flagler
• NCES district ID: 1200540
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,354
• Composite: 46.35/100
• National rank: #2464
• State rank: #20 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Coast

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #478
• US rank: #8721

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Coast, FL
• County: Flagler County · 113,412 people
• City population: 105,049
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 48,391
• Household income: $83,923
• Rent vs Own: 13.6% rent · 86.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 816.0

Population outlook (Flagler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,474 people
• By 2030: 131,864 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 146,176 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 157,398 · +27.5%
• By 2075: 177,990 · +44.2%
• By 2100: 183,381 · +48.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Black 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Russian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Flagler

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.2) · D 35.6% · R 63.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: -28.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.2 2020: R+20.8 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -153.27%
• Current HPI: 290.4607
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.85%
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1481.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-04 Listed $339,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-16 Sold (MLS) $71,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-27 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-05 Price Changed $75,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-21 Price Changed $82,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-30 Listed $87,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $325,000 Public Records
• 1998-07-10 Sold (Public Records) $19,000 Public Records
• 1988-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $21,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,876 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.