909 W Marion St · Knoxville, IA 50138

$105,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 680 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 61 Days on market

Built 1939 7,104 sqft lot Est $122k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

All information obtained from seller and public record.

Key facts

• 7,104 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1939

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $21 ($257/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $94k (10.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $94k (10.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 2.4% in Knoxville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#406 in IA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Knoxville Community School District (town): math 62% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #220 of 289 in IA (top 76%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 100 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 122 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($99k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $105k implies a 304% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $94,463 (10.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.87%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $122,400
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
709 S Streeter St	0.49mi	2/1.0	672 (-1%)	10mo	$40,000	$60	67
918 W Washington St	0.29mi	2/1.5	748 (+10%)	2mo	$135,000	$180	66
1302 W Robinson St	0.25mi	2/1.0	648 (-5%)	19mo	$122,000	$188	64
106 S Park Lane Dr	0.37mi	2/1.0	738 (+8%)	6mo	$138,000	$187	64
121 S Park Lane Dr	0.35mi	2/1.0	728 (+7%)	11mo	$124,400	$171	63
706 W Jones St	0.19mi	2/1.0	780 (+15%)	10mo	$78,000	$100	58
117 E Cronkhite St	0.72mi	2/1.0	698 (+3%)	9mo	$155,100	$222	55
110 S Conrey St	0.31mi	2/1.0	745 (+10%)	19mo	$80,000	$107	54
917 S Roche St	0.74mi	3/1.0 (+1)	768 (+13%)	2mo	$200,000	$260	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-15,639
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-11,809
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 50138

• Home prices YoY: -25.3%
• Active inventory: 100
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $945 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$130 /mo · $1,566/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$198
• Net cashflow: $21

Break-even live

Break-even rent $918

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1870 W Pleasant St Unit 33 Knoxville, IA	2.0	1.0	740	$925	$1.25	43d	1	0.51mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-22
   listed $105,000 Active
3. 2005-01-26
   soldstatus $26,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,566 · $130/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,607 · $134/mo
• Expected delta: +$41/yr (+$3/mo · 2.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,336
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$1,566
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$907
• − Management: −$907
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable loss: −$1,505
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$361
• After-tax cash flow: $618/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Knoxville Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1915840
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,594
• Composite: 53.11/100
• National rank: #1512
• State rank: #220 of 289 in IA

Livability — Knoxville

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #406
• US rank: #8643

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Knoxville, IA
• County: Marion County · 25,533 people
• City population: 11,117
• Metro: Pella, IA
• Population (ZIP): 11,117
• Household income: $74,693
• Rent vs Own: 19.1% rent · 80.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 122.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,883 people
• By 2030: 32,685 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 31,892 · -3.0%
• By 2050: 30,691 · -6.7%
• By 2075: 27,610 · -16.0%
• By 2100: 23,851 · -27.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 12% Portuguese 4% Italian 4%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Philippines, Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.8) · D 30.4% · R 68.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.8pp · 2024: -37.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.8 2020: R+33.7 2016: R+31.2 2012: R+13.3 2008: R+10.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.37%
• Current HPI: 237.7055
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Pella, IA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

+303.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Pending — DMMLS
• 2026-01-22 Listed $105,000 DMMLS
• 2005-01-26 Sold (Public Records) $26,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,566 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.