175 Pastar Fls · Geronimo, TX 78155

$185,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,483 sqft · SingleFamily · 171 Days on market

Built 2024 Excellent condition 4,791 sqft lot $125/sqft · at area comps Est $190k · at est. $63/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• ARV discount +8.4/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location at the front of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms just off the main living areas, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $186k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $65 ($779/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (3.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $164k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.6% in Geronimo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,471 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Navarro ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #166 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Navarro El (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 702 students, 45% FRL); Navarro Int (math 50% / reading 44%, grade D+, #424 of 1,662 statewide, top 27%, 485 students, 40% FRL); Navarro H S (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #447 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 648 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1603 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 171 days — a 12% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $163,679 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 171 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.50%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $189,999
• List price: $185,999
• Delta: -2.11%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
229 Pastar Fls	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,483 (0%)	0mo	$185,999	$125	97
245 Pastar Fls	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,483 (0%)	0mo	$185,999	$125	96
5510 Alope Way	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,575 (+6%)	1mo	$208,999	$133	72
5547 Alope Way	0.38mi	4/2.0	1,575 (+6%)	1mo	$209,999	$133	71
223 Pastar Fls	0.05mi	4/2.5	1,692 (+14%)	1mo	$197,999	$117	71
241 Pastar Fls	0.08mi	4/2.5	1,692 (+14%)	0mo	$197,999	$117	70
233 Pastar Fls	0.07mi	4/2.5	1,692 (+14%)	1mo	$222,999	$132	70
5530 Alope Way	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,575 (+6%)	0mo	$205,999	$131	70
5535 Alope Way	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,411 (-5%)	1mo	$194,999	$138	69
5907 Texas Spur	0.33mi	4/2.0	1,627 (+10%)	0mo	$190,000	$117	68
5519 Alope Way	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-6%)	1mo	$217,999	$155	68
5527 Alope Way	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (+8%)	1mo	$208,999	$131	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-27,651
• Equity at exit: $27,733

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-25,375
• Equity at exit: $16,082

Cash invested: $52,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 35 active · 37 under contract
• Months of supply: 4.2 mo (24%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $208,000 ($146/sqft)
• Median days on market: 98 d
• This list price: 3% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -12.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78155

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1603
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,789 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$975
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$232 /mo · $2,790/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $65

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,707

Max offer price $185,999

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $193	-5% $129	+0% $65	+5% $1	+10% $-64
Rent	-10% $-76	-5% $-6	+0% $65	+5% $136	+10% $206
Rate	-1.0pp $159	-0.5pp $112	base $65	+0.5pp $17	+1.0pp $-32

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,500
• Closing costs: $5,580
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
217 Alligator Crk Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,750	$1.27	93d	1	0.07mi
964 Pastar Crk Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,745	$1.18	34d	1	0.14mi
5863 Coahulia Rdg Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,675	$1.16	93d	1	0.22mi
5863 Coahulia Rdg Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,550	$1.22	9d	1	0.22mi
5909 Antonio Pl Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1446	$1,545	$1.07	9d	1	0.28mi
5912 Texas Spur Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,700	$1.18	9d	1	0.30mi
9272 James Bowie Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,450	$1.01	9d	1	0.33mi
9129 Navarro Vis Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,800	$1.11	9d	1	0.34mi
9268 James Bowie Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,575	$0.97	52d	1	0.34mi
5812 San Geronimo Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,700	$1.04	13d	1	0.38mi
5812 San Geronimo Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,650	$1.01	9d	1	0.38mi
9258 Honey Mesquite Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,595	$1.11	9d	1	0.39mi
9211 Saint Jerome Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,450	$1.01	9d	1	0.52mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-07-31
   days on market $185,999 Active 171 DOM
2. 2026-07-30
   days on market $185,999 Active 170 DOM
3. 2026-07-30
   days on market $185,999 Active 169 DOM
4. 2026-07-28
   days on market $185,999 Active 168 DOM
5. 2026-07-26
   days on market $185,999 Active 166 DOM
6. 2026-07-24
   days on market $185,999 Active 164 DOM
7. 2026-07-23
   days on market $185,999 Active 163 DOM
8. 2026-07-22
   days on market $185,999 Active 162 DOM
9. 2026-07-21
   days on market $185,999 Active 161 DOM
10. 2026-07-20
    days on market $185,999 Active 160 DOM
11. 2026-07-18
    days on market $185,999 Active 158 DOM
12. 2026-07-18
    days on market $185,999 Active 157 DOM
13. 2026-07-16
    days on market $185,999 Active 156 DOM
14. 2026-07-15
    days on market $185,999 Active 155 DOM
15. 2026-07-14
    days on market $185,999 Active 154 DOM
16. 2026-07-13
    days on market $185,999 Active 153 DOM
17. 2026-07-13
    days on market $185,999 Active 152 DOM
18. 2026-07-11
    days on market $185,999 Active 151 DOM
19. 2026-07-10
    days on market $185,999 Active 150 DOM
20. 2026-07-09
    days on market $185,999 Active 149 DOM
21. 2026-07-07
    days on market $185,999 Active 147 DOM
22. 2026-07-06
    days on market $185,999 Active 146 DOM
23. 2026-07-05
    days on market $185,999 Active 145 DOM
24. 2026-07-03
    days on market $185,999 Active 143 DOM
25. 2026-07-02
    days on market $185,999 Active 142 DOM
26. 2026-07-01
    days on market $185,999 Active 141 DOM
27. 2026-06-30
    days on market $185,999 Active 140 DOM
28. 2026-06-29
    days on market $185,999 Active 139 DOM
29. 2026-06-28
    days on market $185,999 Active 138 DOM
30. 2026-06-27
    days on market $185,999 Active 137 DOM
31. 2026-06-26
    days on market $185,999 Active 136 DOM
32. 2026-06-24
    days on market $185,999 Active 134 DOM
33. 2026-06-22
    days on market $185,999 Active 132 DOM
34. 2026-06-21
    days on market $185,999 Active 131 DOM
35. 2026-06-18
    days on market $185,999 Active 128 DOM
36. 2026-06-17
    days on market $185,999 Active 127 DOM
37. 2026-06-16
    days on market $185,999 Active 126 DOM
38. 2026-06-15
    days on market $185,999 Active 125 DOM
39. 2026-06-13
    days on market $185,999 Active 123 DOM
40. 2026-06-13
    days on market $185,999 Active 122 DOM
41. 2026-06-09
    days on market $185,999 Active 119 DOM
42. 2026-06-08
    days on market $185,999 Active 118 DOM
43. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,999 Active 117 DOM
44. 2026-06-04
    days on market $185,999 Active 114 DOM
45. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,999 Active 113 DOM
46. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,999 Active 112 DOM
47. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,999 Active 111 DOM
48. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,999 Active 110 DOM
49. 2026-05-16
    listed $185,999 Active 403-char remark

    Show marketing remark (605 chars)

    The Hoffman- This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location at the front of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms just off the main living areas, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

50. 2026-05-16
    price $185,999 605-char remark

    Show marketing remark (605 chars)

    The Hoffman- This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location at the front of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms just off the main living areas, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,468
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,419
• − Property taxes: −$2,790
• − Insurance: −$930
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,717
• − Management: −$1,717
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$5,411
• Taxable loss: −$2,272
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$545
• After-tax cash flow: $1,325/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-level home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and ideal for both resale and rental.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 49/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Navarro El D- TX #1,006/4,322 Nat'l #14,504/41,679 Middle Navarro Int D+ TX #424/1,662 Nat'l #4,159/14,009 High Navarro H S D+ TX #447/1,632 Nat'l #5,016/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Navarro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832160
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $66,008
• Composite: 43.49/100
• National rank: #2996
• State rank: #166 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 51/100

Livability — Geronimo

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1471
• US rank: #25174

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Geronimo, TX
• County: Guadalupe County · 196,854 people
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 55,600
• Household income: $71,039
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 17% of renters

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Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 43% Two or more races 26% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -147.43%
• Current HPI: 160.5435
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.04%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-23.1% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Listed $185,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $185,999 LERA
• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $215,999 LERA
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $216,999 LERA
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $218,999 LERA
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $219,999 LERA
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $221,999 LERA
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $224,999 LERA
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $244,999 LERA
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $243,999 LERA
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $242,999 LERA
• 2026-02-10 Listed $241,999 LERA