7115 Brokenbow Dr · Payne Springs, TX 75156

$99,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1985 5,053 sqft lot $69/sqft · 51% below area $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked among mature trees, this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers the perfect lake-area escape at an affordable price. With its unique cabin-style design, inviting front porch, and elevated balcony, this home is full of character and ready for weekend getaways or full-time living. Inside, you’ll find updated flooring and fresh paint, making it move-in ready and easy to enjoy from day one. The tree-filled lot provides natural privacy, while the fenced backyard offers space to relax, entertain, or unwind after a day on the water. Located in a lake community with access to a boat ramp and playground, you can enjoy all the perks of lake living—without the waterfront price tag. Whether you’re looking for a weekend retreat, investment property, or budget-friendly home near the lake, this one is a must-see.

Key facts

• 5,053 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1985

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $488 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.7% vs local median 3.9% in Payne Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#985 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Eustace ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #455 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.8%/yr); 694 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $688 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,530 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.42%
• DSCR: 2.18
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $204,937
• List price: $99,500
• Delta: -51.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
246 N Cherokee Shores Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,467 (+2%)	2mo	$230,000	$157	87
7101 Inca Trl	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,436 (-0%)	2mo	$204,900	$143	75
102 Buffalo Springs Rd	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,375 (-4%)	4mo	$200,000	$145	66
118 Running Deer Rd	0.65mi	3/2.5	1,386 (-4%)	1mo	$200,000	$144	61
108 Mcalister St	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,368 (-5%)	8mo	$250,000	$183	60
8794 Frazier Ln	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,332 (-8%)	9mo	$245,000	$184	46
126 Lowe Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,320 (-8%)	21mo	$850,000	$644	46
122 Little Feather Rd	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,292 (-10%)	16mo	$179,900	$139	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $10,401
• Equity at exit: $14,836

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.13×
• Total profit: $31,447
• Equity at exit: $8,603

Cash invested: $27,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75156

• Rents YoY: -5.8%
• Active inventory: 694
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,583 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$522
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $687/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $488

Break-even live

Break-even rent $965

Max offer price $99,500

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,875
• Closing costs: $2,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
110 Bowie St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,550	$1.29	44d	1	0.70mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,500 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,500 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,500 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,500 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,500 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,500 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,500 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,500 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,500 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,500 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $99,500 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $109,500 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,500 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,500 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $109,500 Active 50 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    price $109,500 834-char remark

    Show marketing remark (834 chars)

    Tucked among mature trees, this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers the perfect lake-area escape at an affordable price. With its unique cabin-style design, inviting front porch, and elevated balcony, this home is full of character and ready for weekend getaways or full-time living. Inside, you’ll find updated flooring and fresh paint, making it move-in ready and easy to enjoy from day one. The tree-filled lot provides natural privacy, while the fenced backyard offers space to relax, entertain, or unwind after a day on the water. Located in a lake community with access to a boat ramp and playground, you can enjoy all the perks of lake living—without the waterfront price tag. Whether you’re looking for a weekend retreat, investment property, or budget-friendly home near the lake, this one is a must-see.

17. 2026-05-12
    status Active 834-char remark

    Show marketing remark (834 chars)

    Tucked among mature trees, this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers the perfect lake-area escape at an affordable price. With its unique cabin-style design, inviting front porch, and elevated balcony, this home is full of character and ready for weekend getaways or full-time living. Inside, you’ll find updated flooring and fresh paint, making it move-in ready and easy to enjoy from day one. The tree-filled lot provides natural privacy, while the fenced backyard offers space to relax, entertain, or unwind after a day on the water. Located in a lake community with access to a boat ramp and playground, you can enjoy all the perks of lake living—without the waterfront price tag. Whether you’re looking for a weekend retreat, investment property, or budget-friendly home near the lake, this one is a must-see.

18. 2026-05-11
    historical Active Option Contract 834-char remark

    Show marketing remark (834 chars)

    Tucked among mature trees, this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers the perfect lake-area escape at an affordable price. With its unique cabin-style design, inviting front porch, and elevated balcony, this home is full of character and ready for weekend getaways or full-time living. Inside, you’ll find updated flooring and fresh paint, making it move-in ready and easy to enjoy from day one. The tree-filled lot provides natural privacy, while the fenced backyard offers space to relax, entertain, or unwind after a day on the water. Located in a lake community with access to a boat ramp and playground, you can enjoy all the perks of lake living—without the waterfront price tag. Whether you’re looking for a weekend retreat, investment property, or budget-friendly home near the lake, this one is a must-see.

19. 2026-04-10
    listed $119,000 Active 834-char remark

    Show marketing remark (834 chars)

    Tucked among mature trees, this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers the perfect lake-area escape at an affordable price. With its unique cabin-style design, inviting front porch, and elevated balcony, this home is full of character and ready for weekend getaways or full-time living. Inside, you’ll find updated flooring and fresh paint, making it move-in ready and easy to enjoy from day one. The tree-filled lot provides natural privacy, while the fenced backyard offers space to relax, entertain, or unwind after a day on the water. Located in a lake community with access to a boat ramp and playground, you can enjoy all the perks of lake living—without the waterfront price tag. Whether you’re looking for a weekend retreat, investment property, or budget-friendly home near the lake, this one is a must-see.

20. 2024-05-24
    soldstatus
21. 2024-05-20
    status Pending 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    Appraisal in hand at $140,000 so you have equity already at asking price. Come see this newly remolded charming home. Home was leveled, new back yard fencing, new flooring, new paint inside and many upgrades. This home will make a great first home. Has large upstairs master bedroom with front balcony. Seller is motivated, all offers will be considered. This home will move fast. Owner financing available.

22. 2024-05-17
    soldstatus Closed 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    Appraisal in hand at $140,000 so you have equity already at asking price. Come see this newly remolded charming home. Home was leveled, new back yard fencing, new flooring, new paint inside and many upgrades. This home will make a great first home. Has large upstairs master bedroom with front balcony. Seller is motivated, all offers will be considered. This home will move fast. Owner financing available.

23. 2024-05-09
    historical Active Contingent 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    Appraisal in hand at $140,000 so you have equity already at asking price. Come see this newly remolded charming home. Home was leveled, new back yard fencing, new flooring, new paint inside and many upgrades. This home will make a great first home. Has large upstairs master bedroom with front balcony. Seller is motivated, all offers will be considered. This home will move fast. Owner financing available.

24. 2024-04-23
    price $112,500 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    Appraisal in hand at $140,000 so you have equity already at asking price. Come see this newly remolded charming home. Home was leveled, new back yard fencing, new flooring, new paint inside and many upgrades. This home will make a great first home. Has large upstairs master bedroom with front balcony. Seller is motivated, all offers will be considered. This home will move fast. Owner financing available.

25. 2024-03-26
    status Active 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    Appraisal in hand at $140,000 so you have equity already at asking price. Come see this newly remolded charming home. Home was leveled, new back yard fencing, new flooring, new paint inside and many upgrades. This home will make a great first home. Has large upstairs master bedroom with front balcony. Seller is motivated, all offers will be considered. This home will move fast. Owner financing available.

26. 2024-03-18
    historical Active Option Contract 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    Appraisal in hand at $140,000 so you have equity already at asking price. Come see this newly remolded charming home. Home was leveled, new back yard fencing, new flooring, new paint inside and many upgrades. This home will make a great first home. Has large upstairs master bedroom with front balcony. Seller is motivated, all offers will be considered. This home will move fast. Owner financing available.

27. 2024-03-06
    price $115,900 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    Appraisal in hand at $140,000 so you have equity already at asking price. Come see this newly remolded charming home. Home was leveled, new back yard fencing, new flooring, new paint inside and many upgrades. This home will make a great first home. Has large upstairs master bedroom with front balcony. Seller is motivated, all offers will be considered. This home will move fast. Owner financing available.

28. 2024-02-12
    price $119,900 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    Appraisal in hand at $140,000 so you have equity already at asking price. Come see this newly remolded charming home. Home was leveled, new back yard fencing, new flooring, new paint inside and many upgrades. This home will make a great first home. Has large upstairs master bedroom with front balcony. Seller is motivated, all offers will be considered. This home will move fast. Owner financing available.

29. 2024-01-16
    price $124,900 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    Appraisal in hand at $140,000 so you have equity already at asking price. Come see this newly remolded charming home. Home was leveled, new back yard fencing, new flooring, new paint inside and many upgrades. This home will make a great first home. Has large upstairs master bedroom with front balcony. Seller is motivated, all offers will be considered. This home will move fast. Owner financing available.

30. 2023-12-29
    listed $129,900 Active 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    Appraisal in hand at $140,000 so you have equity already at asking price. Come see this newly remolded charming home. Home was leveled, new back yard fencing, new flooring, new paint inside and many upgrades. This home will make a great first home. Has large upstairs master bedroom with front balcony. Seller is motivated, all offers will be considered. This home will move fast. Owner financing available.

31. 2023-06-20
    price $135,500
32. 2023-06-09
    price $139,500
33. 2023-05-21
    price $145,500
34. 2023-05-03
    listed $149,500 Active
35. 2022-08-15
    soldstatus
36. 2021-11-16
    status Active Option Contract
37. 2021-11-16
    historical
38. 2021-11-12
    historical
39. 2021-11-01
    price $99,000
40. 2021-10-05
    listed $120,000 Active
41. 2013-12-16
    soldstatus
42. 2013-12-12
    soldstatus Closed
43. 2013-12-12
    soldstatus
44. 2013-11-18
    status Pending
45. 2013-07-31
    price $29,900
46. 2013-06-26
    listed $31,999 Active
47. 2013-06-26
    listed $29,900
48. 2007-02-05
    soldstatus
49. 2006-12-28
    soldstatus
50. 2006-10-26
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $687 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,821 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,134/yr (+$94/mo · 165.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,001
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,574
• − Property taxes: −$687
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,520
• − Management: −$1,520
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$2,895
• Taxable income: $4,602
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,104
• After-tax cash flow: $4,754/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eustace ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818720
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $42,425
• Composite: 32.48/100
• National rank: #5711
• State rank: #455 of 826 in TX

Livability — Payne Springs

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #985
• US rank: #17539

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Henderson County · 34,977 people
• City population: 16,333
• Metro: Athens, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,333
• Household income: $60,867
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 400.0

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% European 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.77%
• Current HPI: 199.8108
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.76%
• Metro: Athens, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+450.3% since first listed

42 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $109,500 NTREIS
• 2026-05-12 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-05-11 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $119,000 NTREIS
• 2024-05-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-05-20 Pending — NTREIS
• 2024-05-17 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2024-05-09 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2024-04-23 Price Changed $112,500 NTREIS
• 2024-03-26 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2024-03-18 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2024-03-06 Price Changed $115,900 NTREIS
• 2024-02-12 Price Changed $119,900 NTREIS
• 2024-01-16 Price Changed $124,900 NTREIS
• 2023-12-29 Listed $129,900 NTREIS
• 2023-06-20 Price Changed $135,500 NTREIS
• 2023-06-09 Price Changed $139,500 NTREIS
• 2023-05-21 Price Changed $145,500 NTREIS
• 2023-05-03 Listed $149,500 NTREIS
• 2022-08-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-11-16 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2021-11-16 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2021-11-12 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2021-11-01 Price Changed $99,000 NTREIS
• 2021-10-05 Listed $120,000 NTREIS
• 2013-12-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-12-12 Sold (MLS) — HCBOR
• 2013-12-12 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2013-11-18 Pending — NTREIS
• 2013-07-31 Price Changed $29,900 NTREIS
• 2013-06-26 Listed $31,999 NTREIS
• 2013-06-26 Listed $29,900 HCBOR
• 2007-02-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-12-28 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2006-10-26 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2006-04-10 Listed $19,900 NTREIS
• 2005-05-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-04-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-04-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-03-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-10-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $687 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.