20021 S Libby Rd · Pickford, MI 49774

$117,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,006 sqft · SingleFamily · 4 Days on market

Built 1961 2.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Munuscong Riverfront Retreat! Discover a budget-friendly opportunity to own beautiful river frontage on the Munuscong River! Set on 2 private, high-and-dry acres in Pickford, this property is bordered by Desormeaux Creek and features over 300 feet of water frontage. The 1,006 sq. ft. manufactured home offers an expanded layout with a laundry room, mudroom, and 1 bathroom. Relax in a quiet setting with expansive river views and frequent wildlife. The property includes a spacious 2-car attached garage, storage shed, modern well and septic, plus the original Kelden post office right on-site. Heating includes boiler, propane, and wood options. An excellent cash-buyer opportunity to secure your

Key facts

• Private acres
• Water frontage
• Storage shed

Tags

• RIVER FRONTAGE
• PRIVATE ACRES
• WATER FRONTAGE
• EXPANSIVE RIVER VIEWS
• DETACHED GARAGE
• STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home; One level
• Construction: Metal roof; Slab foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Waterfront lot on the Munuscong River

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher not listed
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating; Propane heating; Wood heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry located on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $118k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $17 ($203/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $92k (21.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $92k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pickford Public Schools (rural): math 29% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #279 of 540 in MI (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 92 units permitted in Chippewa County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $812 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chippewa County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $92,448 (21.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.62%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $297,424
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4292 E Clauss Row	1.25mi	1/1.0	900 (-10%)	7mo	$197,000	$219	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-18,010
• Equity at exit: $17,520

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-14,486
• Equity at exit: $10,159

Cash invested: $32,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49774

• Home prices YoY: -3.4%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $924 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$616
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $580/yr
• Insurance: −$49
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$194
• Net cashflow: $17

Break-even live

Break-even rent $903

Max offer price $117,500

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $83	-5% $50	+0% $17	+5% $-16	+10% $-50
Rent	-10% $-56	-5% $-20	+0% $17	+5% $53	+10% $90
Rate	-1.0pp $76	-0.5pp $47	base $17	+0.5pp $-14	+1.0pp $-45

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,375
• Closing costs: $3,525
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $117,500 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $117,500 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   listed $117,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $580 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,195 · $100/mo
• Expected delta: +$615/yr (+$51/mo · 106.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,094
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,582
• − Property taxes: −$580
• − Insurance: −$588
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$888
• − Management: −$888
• − Depreciation: −$3,418
• Taxable loss: −$1,848
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$444
• After-tax cash flow: $646/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pickford Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2628020
• Math proficiency: 29% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $45,740
• Composite: 30.31/100
• National rank: #6274
• State rank: #279 of 540 in MI

Livability — Pickford

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,994

Population outlook (Chippewa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,043 people
• By 2030: 36,431 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 34,911 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 33,350 · -10.0%
• By 2075: 29,789 · -19.6%
• By 2100: 24,171 · -34.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 7% Native American 4%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 11% Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Chippewa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.2) · D 37.0% · R 61.3% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.8pp toward R · 2008: -0.5pp · 2024: -24.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.2 2020: R+22.9 2016: R+24.2 2012: R+7.6 2008: R+0.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -5.57%
• Current HPI: 158.8149
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+6.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $117,500 EUPBR
• 2025-08-08 Listed $110,000 EUPBR

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2021): $580 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.