19225 N Cave Creek Rd #83 · Phoenix, AZ 85024

$23,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 751 sqft · Manufactured · 164 Days on market

Built 1966 4,100 sqft lot $31/sqft · 33% below area Est $35k · 33% under ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MAJOR PRICE REDUCTION!! Seller will also subsidize monthly lot rent for 1st year.Nice 2 bedroom unit that has been remodeled. An over 55+ community offers a beautiful heated community pool and nice clubhouse which offers activities for the community. This unit has a beautiful quartz countertop with gas stove. sink. LVP flooring. Central heat and A/C. New shower recently installed. New toilet. Covered patio and covered parking. Nice area outback for your doggies if needed. Wheelchair ramp if needed. Price NEGOTIABLE! No REASONABLE OFFER REFUSED. Owner is moving and wants it SOLD.

Key facts

• Full backsplash
• Quartz countertop
• Gas stove

Tags

• HEATED COMMUNITY POOL
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOP
• GAS STOVE
• FULL BACKSPLASH
• GOOSENECK FAUCET
• SS DEEP SINGLE BOWL SINK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $24k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $24k).
• Recommended offer: $21k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 67.1% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #56 of 249 in AZ (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 201 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $162 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $705 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.4% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($21k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $44k (65%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $20,680 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 67.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 217.34%
• DSCR: 10.67
• GRM: 1.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $35,000
• List price: $23,500
• Delta: -32.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19225 N Cave Creek Rd N #61	0.00mi	2/1.5	758 (+1%)	12mo	$11,000	$15	87
2619 E Oraibi Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	730 (-3%)	1mo	$125,000	$171	71
2502 E Cowan Cir	0.27mi	1/1.0 (-1)	750 (-0%)	14mo	$169,900	$227	70
2120 E Bluefield Ave #141	0.59mi	1/1.0 (-1)	768 (+2%)	13mo	$45,000	$59	53
2701 E Utopia Rd #3	0.22mi	1/1.0 (-1)	644 (-14%)	13mo	$36,000	$56	50
18026 N Cave Creek Rd #101	0.68mi	2/1.0	784 (+4%)	21mo	$55,000	$70	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.56×
• Total profit: $69,471
• Equity at exit: $3,504

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 23.46×
• Total profit: $147,799
• Equity at exit: $2,032

Cash invested: $6,580 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85024

• Home prices YoY: -21.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 201
• Price-to-rent: 1.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,714 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$123
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$29 /mo · $352/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $1,192

Break-even live

Break-even rent $206

Max offer price $23,500

Occupancy floor 25%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,208	-5% $1,200	+0% $1,192	+5% $1,184	+10% $1,175
Rent	-10% $1,056	-5% $1,124	+0% $1,192	+5% $1,259	+10% $1,327
Rate	-1.0pp $1,204	-0.5pp $1,198	base $1,192	+0.5pp $1,186	+1.0pp $1,179

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $5,875
• Closing costs: $705
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19635 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.0–2.0	999	$1,643	$1.64	2d	22	0.34mi
18660 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	961	$1,622	$1.69	2d	11	0.34mi
2500 E Marco Polo Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	918	$2,390	$2.60	2d	16	0.46mi
18416 N Cave Creek Rd Unit 6 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	748	$1,250	$1.67	8d	1	0.49mi
20050 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	909	$1,770	$1.95	1d	10	0.50mi
18416 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	786	$3,000	$3.81	4d	9	0.52mi
18202 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	722	$1,148	$1.59	4d	7	0.66mi
2220 E Beardsley Rd Phoenix, AZ	4.0	1.0–2.0	855	$1,694	$1.98	3d	62	0.69mi
2554 E Villa Rita Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1118	$2,750	$2.46	24d	1	0.76mi
2077 E Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	720	$1,295	$1.80	24d	1	0.90mi
2067 E Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	840	$1,395	$1.66	24d	1	0.91mi
17602 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	650	$1,625	$2.50	2d	13	1.02mi
3301 E Wescott Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1101	$1,995	$1.81	24d	1	1.08mi
1814 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1003	$1,637	$1.63	2d	12	1.41mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-04-22
   price $23,500 586-char remark

   Show marketing remark (586 chars)

   MAJOR PRICE REDUCTION!! Seller will also subsidize monthly lot rent for 1st year.Nice 2 bedroom unit that has been remodeled. An over 55+ community offers a beautiful heated community pool and nice clubhouse which offers activities for the community. This unit has a beautiful quartz countertop with gas stove. sink. LVP flooring. Central heat and A/C. New shower recently installed. New toilet. Covered patio and covered parking. Nice area outback for your doggies if needed. Wheelchair ramp if needed. Price NEGOTIABLE! No REASONABLE OFFER REFUSED. Owner is moving and wants it SOLD.

2. 2026-03-15
   price $29,500 586-char remark

   Show marketing remark (586 chars)

   MAJOR PRICE REDUCTION!! Seller will also subsidize monthly lot rent for 1st year.Nice 2 bedroom unit that has been remodeled. An over 55+ community offers a beautiful heated community pool and nice clubhouse which offers activities for the community. This unit has a beautiful quartz countertop with gas stove. sink. LVP flooring. Central heat and A/C. New shower recently installed. New toilet. Covered patio and covered parking. Nice area outback for your doggies if needed. Wheelchair ramp if needed. Price NEGOTIABLE! No REASONABLE OFFER REFUSED. Owner is moving and wants it SOLD.

3. 2026-03-06
   price $31,500 586-char remark

   Show marketing remark (586 chars)

   MAJOR PRICE REDUCTION!! Seller will also subsidize monthly lot rent for 1st year.Nice 2 bedroom unit that has been remodeled. An over 55+ community offers a beautiful heated community pool and nice clubhouse which offers activities for the community. This unit has a beautiful quartz countertop with gas stove. sink. LVP flooring. Central heat and A/C. New shower recently installed. New toilet. Covered patio and covered parking. Nice area outback for your doggies if needed. Wheelchair ramp if needed. Price NEGOTIABLE! No REASONABLE OFFER REFUSED. Owner is moving and wants it SOLD.

4. 2026-03-04
   price $41,500 586-char remark

   Show marketing remark (586 chars)

   MAJOR PRICE REDUCTION!! Seller will also subsidize monthly lot rent for 1st year.Nice 2 bedroom unit that has been remodeled. An over 55+ community offers a beautiful heated community pool and nice clubhouse which offers activities for the community. This unit has a beautiful quartz countertop with gas stove. sink. LVP flooring. Central heat and A/C. New shower recently installed. New toilet. Covered patio and covered parking. Nice area outback for your doggies if needed. Wheelchair ramp if needed. Price NEGOTIABLE! No REASONABLE OFFER REFUSED. Owner is moving and wants it SOLD.

5. 2026-01-22
   price $47,500 586-char remark

   Show marketing remark (586 chars)

   MAJOR PRICE REDUCTION!! Seller will also subsidize monthly lot rent for 1st year.Nice 2 bedroom unit that has been remodeled. An over 55+ community offers a beautiful heated community pool and nice clubhouse which offers activities for the community. This unit has a beautiful quartz countertop with gas stove. sink. LVP flooring. Central heat and A/C. New shower recently installed. New toilet. Covered patio and covered parking. Nice area outback for your doggies if needed. Wheelchair ramp if needed. Price NEGOTIABLE! No REASONABLE OFFER REFUSED. Owner is moving and wants it SOLD.

6. 2025-12-17
   listed $67,500 Active 586-char remark

   Show marketing remark (586 chars)

   MAJOR PRICE REDUCTION!! Seller will also subsidize monthly lot rent for 1st year.Nice 2 bedroom unit that has been remodeled. An over 55+ community offers a beautiful heated community pool and nice clubhouse which offers activities for the community. This unit has a beautiful quartz countertop with gas stove. sink. LVP flooring. Central heat and A/C. New shower recently installed. New toilet. Covered patio and covered parking. Nice area outback for your doggies if needed. Wheelchair ramp if needed. Price NEGOTIABLE! No REASONABLE OFFER REFUSED. Owner is moving and wants it SOLD.

7. 2025-12-11
   historical
8. 2025-10-17
   price $23,000
9. 2025-10-10
   listed $23,500 Active
10. 2025-10-01
    historical
11. 2025-09-22
    price $25,750
12. 2025-08-25
    price $25,900
13. 2025-08-12
    price $26,000
14. 2025-07-23
    listed $26,500 Active
15. 2025-07-04
    historical
16. 2025-06-19
    price $27,750
17. 2025-06-09
    price $28,000
18. 2025-05-14
    listed $29,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥110°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,569
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,316
• − Property taxes: −$352
• − Insurance: −$118
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,646
• − Management: −$1,646
• − Depreciation: −$684
• Taxable income: $14,808
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,554
• After-tax cash flow: $10,747/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paradise Valley Unified District (4241)
• NCES district ID: 0405930
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $64,106
• Composite: 37.89/100
• National rank: #4316
• State rank: #56 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 26,199
• Household income: $106,724
• Rent vs Own: 34.1% rent · 65.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 547.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 12% Asian 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.95%
• Current HPI: 312.7238
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.44%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-19.0% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $23,500 ARMLS
• 2026-03-15 Price Changed $29,500 ARMLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $31,500 ARMLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $41,500 ARMLS
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $47,500 ARMLS
• 2025-12-17 Listed $67,500 ARMLS
• 2025-12-11 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-10-17 Price Changed $23,000 ARMLS
• 2025-10-10 Listed $23,500 ARMLS
• 2025-10-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-09-22 Price Changed $25,750 ARMLS
• 2025-08-25 Price Changed $25,900 ARMLS
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $26,000 ARMLS
• 2025-07-23 Listed $26,500 ARMLS
• 2025-07-04 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-06-19 Price Changed $27,750 ARMLS
• 2025-06-09 Price Changed $28,000 ARMLS
• 2025-05-14 Listed $29,000 ARMLS