4209 Short St · Houston, TX 77021

$42,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 139 Days on market

Built 1940 1,681 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks

2 story, 1 bed, 1, bath home in Belmont ready for you . May be sold with others, Ask about other homes in The White Portfolio. with MLS# 1990690, 24409647, 26696173, 49038010, 59916271, 49999437, 7468649, 74766011, 75960757, 8783915

Key facts

• 1,681 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1940

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath multifamily listed at $42k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $488 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $42k).
• Recommended offer: $37k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.2% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Cullen Middle (math 6% / reading 14%, grade F, #1,641 of 1,662 statewide, top 99%, 324 students, 100% FRL); Yates H S (math 12% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,451 of 1,632 statewide, top 89%, 851 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 71% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 14% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 471 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $290 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.2% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($37k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.1% of price; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $36,960 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.77%
• DSCR: 3.21
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 46.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.99×
• Total profit: $23,420
• Equity at exit: $6,262

10-year hold

• IRR: 51.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.85×
• Total profit: $57,013
• Equity at exit: $3,631

Cash invested: $11,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77021

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 471
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,098 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$220
• Tax from tax record: −$142 /mo · $1,707/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $488

Break-even live

Break-even rent $481

Max offer price $42,000

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $512	-5% $500	+0% $488	+5% $476	+10% $464
Rent	-10% $401	-5% $444	+0% $488	+5% $531	+10% $575
Rate	-1.0pp $509	-0.5pp $498	base $488	+0.5pp $477	+1.0pp $466

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,500
• Closing costs: $1,260
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6420 Conley St Unit 7 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	652	$975	$1.50	44d	1	0.23mi
6215 Tierwester St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	650	$800	$1.23	25d	3	0.72mi
6030 Schroeder Rd Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	740	$850	$1.15	44d	1	0.73mi
5924 Schroeder Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$895	$0.99	23d	1	0.74mi
5924 Schroeder Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$895	$0.99	44d	1	0.74mi
5924 Schroeder Rd Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	800	$795	$0.99	25d	1	0.74mi
5918 Schroeder Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	850	$695	$0.82	44d	1	0.74mi
3560 Dixie Dr Unit 3581 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	1003	$1,087	$1.08	12d	1	0.79mi
3560 Dixie Dr Unit 1047 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	1003	$1,088	$1.08	12d	1	0.79mi
3560 Dixie Dr Unit 3581 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	1003	$1,083	$1.08	15d	1	0.79mi
3560 Dixie Dr Unit 3611 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	1003	$1,037	$1.03	13d	1	0.79mi
3560 Dixie Dr Unit 1187 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	1003	$1,037	$1.03	0d	1	0.79mi
3560 Dixie Dr Unit 1162 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	1003	$1,048	$1.04	6d	1	0.79mi
3560 Dixie Dr Unit 324 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	1003	$1,048	$1.04	8d	1	0.79mi
4722 Old Spanish Trl Unit B301 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1027	$1,695	$1.65	45d	1	0.89mi
3603 Alice St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	848	$1,000	$1.18	5d	1	0.93mi
3603 Alice St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$1,000	$1.18	5d	1	0.93mi
3426 Tampa St Unit 4272026 Houston, TX	2.0	1.5	1046	$1,500	$1.43	44d	1	0.94mi
3603 Alice St Unit 15 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$999	$1.18	8d	1	0.95mi
3603 Alice St Unit 3725-B Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	850	$999	$1.18	8d	1	0.95mi
4007 Corder St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	814	$885	$1.09	25d	1	0.95mi
3716 Southmore Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$1,000	$1.18	44d	1	0.95mi
3629 N MacGregor Way Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$775	$1.11	44d	1	1.02mi
6811 Del Rio St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	588	$999	$1.70	16d	1	1.04mi
6811 Del Rio St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	598	$999	$1.67	44d	1	1.04mi
3620 Southmore Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	780	$1,100	$1.41	14d	1	1.04mi
4977 Martin Luther King Blvd Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	630	$1,630	$2.59	44d	1	1.29mi
4977 Martin Luther King Blvd Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	630	$1,630	$2.59	23d	1	1.29mi
5610 Royal Palms St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$950	$1.06	25d	1	1.30mi
5610 Royal Palms St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	560	$875	$1.56	44d	1	1.30mi
5600 Royal Palms St Unit 22 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	560	$875	$1.56	44d	1	1.34mi
3360 Alice St Unit 2292 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	945	$998	$1.06	45d	1	1.38mi
3360 Alice St Unit 2162 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	968	$1,323	$1.37	8d	1	1.38mi
3360 Alice St Unit 3387 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	968	$1,307	$1.35	0d	1	1.38mi
3360 Alice St Unit 2174 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	945	$991	$1.05	15d	1	1.38mi
3360 Alice St Unit 2174 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	968	$1,348	$1.39	0d	1	1.38mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 324 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	1003	$965	$0.96	8d	1	1.38mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 5565 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	1003	$935	$0.93	44d	1	1.38mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 1162 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	1003	$965	$0.96	6d	1	1.38mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 5535 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	1003	$940	$0.94	15d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-03
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-25
   price $42,000
3. 2026-03-24
   price $36,000
4. 2025-12-06
   price $42,000
5. 2025-11-15
   listed $130,000 Active
6. 1990-01-02
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,707 · $142/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,707 · $142/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,180
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,353
• − Property taxes: −$1,707
• − Insurance: −$210
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,054
• − Management: −$1,054
• − Depreciation: −$1,222
• Taxable income: $5,580
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,339
• After-tax cash flow: $4,513/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,153
• Household income: $45,574
• Rent vs Own: 58.2% rent · 41.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2532.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 62% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% White 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 19% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.22%
• Current HPI: 230.2869
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.17%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-67.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $42,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $36,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-06 Price Changed $42,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-15 Listed $130,000 HARMLS
• 1990-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,707 · -5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.