18 Mary Dr · Aquia Harbour, VA 22556

$155,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily · 157 Days on market

Built 2001 Good condition 0.30 ac lot $155/sqft · 43% above area Est $108k · 43% over ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.7/10.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 18 Mary Dr, tucked inside one of Stafford’s most sought-after mobile home parks! This charming and fully refreshed home has been updated top to bottom — truly move-in ready. Enjoy peace of mind with all the major upgrades already done for you, including a brand-new roof, new HVAC, new hot water heater, updated kitchen, bathroom, flooring, and a crisp new paint job throughout. Just unlock the door and enjoy — the heavy lifting is already done! Sitting on a private lot with its own parking, this home offers plenty of outdoor living space, featuring two decks, including an oversized deck perfect for morning coffee, evening unwinding, or pretending you’re hosting a home-and-garden show. The location couldn’t be better — right next to I-95 and Route 1, with a commuter lot nearby for easy travel. You’ll also be just minutes from shopping centers, restaurants, schools, and all the everyday conveniences that make life simple. Cute, updated, move-in ready, and in one of the best communities around — this gem won’t last long!

Key facts

• Brand new roof
• New hvac
• New hot water heater

Tags

• BRAND NEW ROOF
• NEW HVAC
• NEW HOT WATER HEATER
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• UPDATED BATHROOM
• UPDATED FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $155k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $731 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 3.5% in Aquia Harbour — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#254 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Stafford County Public School District (suburban): math 50% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #42 of 131 in VA (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 150 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 361 units permitted in Stafford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stafford County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.20%
• DSCR: 1.90
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $108,450
• List price: $155,000
• Delta: 42.92%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18 Mary Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,000 (0%)	0mo	$140,000	$140	100
34 Crater Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,064 (+6%)	1mo	$109,000	$102	86
11 Cliff Cir	0.28mi	3/2.0	980 (-2%)	13mo	$90,000	$92	73
3095 Richmond Hwy	0.47mi	3/1.0	960 (-4%)	18mo	$249,700	$260	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $21,451
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.81×
• Total profit: $78,739
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22556

• Home prices YoY: -27.3%
• Active inventory: 150
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,281 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$194 /mo · $2,325/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$479
• Net cashflow: $731

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,356

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 Grosvenor Ln #3 Stafford, VA	2.0	1.0	837	$1,900	$2.27	4d	1	0.22mi
102 Picadilly Ln #203 Stafford, VA	2.0	1.0	837	$1,749	$2.09	24d	1	0.24mi
102 Piccadilly Ln Stafford, VA	2.0	1.0	837	$1,695	$2.03	44d	1	0.24mi
200 Dover Pl #202 Stafford, VA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,750	$1.75	24d	1	0.24mi
37 Bristol Ct Stafford, VA	3.0	1.5	1320	$2,500	$1.89	4d	1	0.29mi
503 Garrison Woods Dr #213 Stafford, VA	2.0	2.0	1132	$1,800	$1.59	44d	1	0.95mi
501 Garrison Woods Dr #104 Stafford, VA	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,250	$1.88	24d	1	0.98mi
3354 Richmond Hwy Stafford, VA	3.0	1.0	872	$2,400	$2.75	44d	1	1.09mi
107 Stafford Mews Ln Stafford, VA	3.0	2.5	1320	$2,500	$1.89	2d	1	1.15mi
106 Wind Ridge Dr Stafford, VA	2.0	1.5	902	$1,700	$1.88	20d	1	1.15mi
15 Town Square Cir Stafford, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1064	$2,446	$2.30	13d	9	1.15mi
703 Kings Crest Dr Stafford, VA	3.0	2.5	1280	$2,100	$1.64	44d	1	1.23mi
202 Chesterfield Ln #203 Stafford, VA	2.0	2.0	1025	$1,850	$1.80	5d	1	1.26mi
200 Chesterfield Ln #203 Stafford, VA	2.0	2.0	1025	$1,850	$1.80	24d	1	1.27mi
200 Chesterfield Ln #203 Stafford, VA	2.0	2.0	1025	$1,850	$1.80	44d	1	1.27mi
102 Chesterfield Ln #201 Stafford, VA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,900	$1.90	4d	1	1.28mi
100 Chesterfield Ln Stafford, VA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	4d	1	1.28mi
20 Stonegate Pl Stafford, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1058	$2,488	$2.35	2d	6	1.33mi
23 Oak Rd Stafford, VA	4.0	3.0	1286	$3,300	$2.57	44d	1	1.42mi
2030 Dewey Dr Stafford, VA	3.0	2.0	1296	$2,750	$2.12	44d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $155,000 Active 157 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $155,000 Active 156 DOM
3. 2026-04-17
   status Active 1096-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1096 chars)

   Welcome to 18 Mary Dr, tucked inside one of Stafford’s most sought-after mobile home parks! This charming and fully refreshed home has been updated top to bottom — truly move-in ready. Enjoy peace of mind with all the major upgrades already done for you, including a brand-new roof, new HVAC, new hot water heater, updated kitchen, bathroom, flooring, and a crisp new paint job throughout. Just unlock the door and enjoy — the heavy lifting is already done! Sitting on a private lot with its own parking, this home offers plenty of outdoor living space, featuring two decks, including an oversized deck perfect for morning coffee, evening unwinding, or pretending you’re hosting a home-and-garden show. The location couldn’t be better — right next to I-95 and Route 1, with a commuter lot nearby for easy travel. You’ll also be just minutes from shopping centers, restaurants, schools, and all the everyday conveniences that make life simple. Cute, updated, move-in ready, and in one of the best communities around — this gem won’t last long!

4. 2026-04-13
   historical 1096-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1096 chars)

   Welcome to 18 Mary Dr, tucked inside one of Stafford’s most sought-after mobile home parks! This charming and fully refreshed home has been updated top to bottom — truly move-in ready. Enjoy peace of mind with all the major upgrades already done for you, including a brand-new roof, new HVAC, new hot water heater, updated kitchen, bathroom, flooring, and a crisp new paint job throughout. Just unlock the door and enjoy — the heavy lifting is already done! Sitting on a private lot with its own parking, this home offers plenty of outdoor living space, featuring two decks, including an oversized deck perfect for morning coffee, evening unwinding, or pretending you’re hosting a home-and-garden show. The location couldn’t be better — right next to I-95 and Route 1, with a commuter lot nearby for easy travel. You’ll also be just minutes from shopping centers, restaurants, schools, and all the everyday conveniences that make life simple. Cute, updated, move-in ready, and in one of the best communities around — this gem won’t last long!

5. 2026-04-10
   price $155,000 1096-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1096 chars)

   Welcome to 18 Mary Dr, tucked inside one of Stafford’s most sought-after mobile home parks! This charming and fully refreshed home has been updated top to bottom — truly move-in ready. Enjoy peace of mind with all the major upgrades already done for you, including a brand-new roof, new HVAC, new hot water heater, updated kitchen, bathroom, flooring, and a crisp new paint job throughout. Just unlock the door and enjoy — the heavy lifting is already done! Sitting on a private lot with its own parking, this home offers plenty of outdoor living space, featuring two decks, including an oversized deck perfect for morning coffee, evening unwinding, or pretending you’re hosting a home-and-garden show. The location couldn’t be better — right next to I-95 and Route 1, with a commuter lot nearby for easy travel. You’ll also be just minutes from shopping centers, restaurants, schools, and all the everyday conveniences that make life simple. Cute, updated, move-in ready, and in one of the best communities around — this gem won’t last long!

6. 2026-04-10
   status Active 1096-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1096 chars)

   Welcome to 18 Mary Dr, tucked inside one of Stafford’s most sought-after mobile home parks! This charming and fully refreshed home has been updated top to bottom — truly move-in ready. Enjoy peace of mind with all the major upgrades already done for you, including a brand-new roof, new HVAC, new hot water heater, updated kitchen, bathroom, flooring, and a crisp new paint job throughout. Just unlock the door and enjoy — the heavy lifting is already done! Sitting on a private lot with its own parking, this home offers plenty of outdoor living space, featuring two decks, including an oversized deck perfect for morning coffee, evening unwinding, or pretending you’re hosting a home-and-garden show. The location couldn’t be better — right next to I-95 and Route 1, with a commuter lot nearby for easy travel. You’ll also be just minutes from shopping centers, restaurants, schools, and all the everyday conveniences that make life simple. Cute, updated, move-in ready, and in one of the best communities around — this gem won’t last long!

7. 2026-03-31
   historical 1096-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1096 chars)

   Welcome to 18 Mary Dr, tucked inside one of Stafford’s most sought-after mobile home parks! This charming and fully refreshed home has been updated top to bottom — truly move-in ready. Enjoy peace of mind with all the major upgrades already done for you, including a brand-new roof, new HVAC, new hot water heater, updated kitchen, bathroom, flooring, and a crisp new paint job throughout. Just unlock the door and enjoy — the heavy lifting is already done! Sitting on a private lot with its own parking, this home offers plenty of outdoor living space, featuring two decks, including an oversized deck perfect for morning coffee, evening unwinding, or pretending you’re hosting a home-and-garden show. The location couldn’t be better — right next to I-95 and Route 1, with a commuter lot nearby for easy travel. You’ll also be just minutes from shopping centers, restaurants, schools, and all the everyday conveniences that make life simple. Cute, updated, move-in ready, and in one of the best communities around — this gem won’t last long!

8. 2025-12-12
   listed $160,000 Active 1096-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1096 chars)

   Welcome to 18 Mary Dr, tucked inside one of Stafford’s most sought-after mobile home parks! This charming and fully refreshed home has been updated top to bottom — truly move-in ready. Enjoy peace of mind with all the major upgrades already done for you, including a brand-new roof, new HVAC, new hot water heater, updated kitchen, bathroom, flooring, and a crisp new paint job throughout. Just unlock the door and enjoy — the heavy lifting is already done! Sitting on a private lot with its own parking, this home offers plenty of outdoor living space, featuring two decks, including an oversized deck perfect for morning coffee, evening unwinding, or pretending you’re hosting a home-and-garden show. The location couldn’t be better — right next to I-95 and Route 1, with a commuter lot nearby for easy travel. You’ll also be just minutes from shopping centers, restaurants, schools, and all the everyday conveniences that make life simple. Cute, updated, move-in ready, and in one of the best communities around — this gem won’t last long!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,369
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$2,325
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,190
• − Management: −$2,190
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $6,698
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,608
• After-tax cash flow: $7,160/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This fully refreshed mobile home is move-in ready with new updates throughout, including a new roof, HVAC, and hot water heater.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and adds value
• Both furniture — adds comfort and functionality
• Both smart home integration — enhances convenience and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both furniture — adds comfort and functionality ↑
• Both smart home integration — enhances convenience and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stafford County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103660
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $96,389
• Composite: 54.61/100
• National rank: #1336
• State rank: #42 of 131 in VA

Livability — Aquia Harbour

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #254
• US rank: #8617

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Stafford County · 161,536 people
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 31,785
• Household income: $137,287
• Rent vs Own: 19.4% rent · 80.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 332.0

Population outlook (Stafford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 169,882 people
• By 2030: 183,934 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 211,031 · +24.2%
• By 2050: 235,391 · +38.6%
• By 2075: 297,080 · +74.9%
• By 2100: 334,680 · +97.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 24% Black 15% Two or more races 11% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Italian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stafford

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.6% · R 48.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -6.3pp · 2024: 0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.8 2020: D+3.3 2016: R+9.1 2012: R+8.8 2008: R+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -106.72%
• Current HPI: 284.4747
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-3.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-13 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $155,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-10 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-12 Listed $160,000 BRIGHT MLS