227 Aspen Cir · Leesburg, FL 34748

$69,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Condo public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1976 $397/mo HOA · 23% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Welcome home to this charming and inviting 2-bedroom, 2-bath residence offering approximately 1,344 square feet of comfortable living space in a peaceful setting. Ideally located near the clubhouse, this partially furnished home enjoys a private backyard backdrop of mature woods, creating a serene view and added privacy rarely found. The spacious Florida room is under heat and air, providing year-round enjoyment while showcasing beautiful, wooded views. Inside, the open-concept floor plan offers an airy feel with generous living and dining areas designed for both everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features a center island, ample cabinetry,

Key facts

• Private backyard
• En-suite bath
• Large walk-in closet

Tags

• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• SPACIOUS FLORIDA ROOM
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• CENTER ISLAND
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• EN-SUITE BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Partially furnished; Monthly total fees listed as $397; total annual fees $4,764
• HOA & community: Part of Hawthorne Residents Cooperative Association; Monthly association fee of $397; Association fee includes cable TV, pool, grounds maintenance, management, private road, recreational facilities, sewer and water; Community amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, pool, tennis courts, pickleball courts, shuffleboard, spa/hot tub, sauna, recreation facilities, storage, trails, gated entry, wheelchair access, handicap modified access, street lights, association recreation-owned; Association allows golf carts; Pets not allowed; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Private water; Private sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas available; Cable connected; High-speed internet available; Phone available; Sewer connected; Water connected; Underground utilities; Fire hydrant nearby
• Home design: Mobile home (double wide); Single-story; Faces west; Residential property
• Construction: Metal frame and wood frame construction; Membrane roof
• Exterior features: Awnings; Exterior lighting; Private mailbox; Outdoor storage; Near marina; Private lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Range hood; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Formal dining area; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $69k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $503 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $69k).
• Cap rate 15.0% vs local median 4.5% in Leesburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#751 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D, amenities F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 783 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $477 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $69,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.26%
• DSCR: 2.39
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $16,062
• Equity at exit: $10,288

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.90×
• Total profit: $36,725
• Equity at exit: $5,966

Cash invested: $19,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34748

• Home prices YoY: -25.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 783
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,731 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$362
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $923/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$397
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $503

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,094

Max offer price $69,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,250
• Closing costs: $2,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6015 Nightjar Ct Okahumpka, FL	3.0	2.0	1725	$2,495	$1.45	11d	1	0.78mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $397 · $4,764/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-03
   statusdays on market $69,000 Pending 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $69,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $69,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   remarks 699-char remark
5. 2026-05-31
   listed $69,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $923 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $923 · $77/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,777
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,865
• − Property taxes: −$923
• − Insurance: −$345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,662
• − Management: −$1,662
• − HOA: −$4,764
• − Depreciation: −$2,007
• Taxable income: $5,548
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,331
• After-tax cash flow: $4,708/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Leesburg

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #751
• US rank: #16429

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 70,232
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 48,095
• Household income: $58,192
• Rent vs Own: 24.9% rent · 75.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1745.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.97%
• Current HPI: 262.1766
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listed $69,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+21.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $923 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.