11 Cardinal · Warren, AR 71671

$159,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,651 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1970 2.35 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks

partially rural setting.

Key facts

• 2.35 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1970

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 2.35 acres (per courthouse)

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family property; Entry facing information not provided
• Construction: Composition roof; Slab/crawlspace combination foundation
• Exterior features: Brick exterior; Level lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling; Window air units
• Interior features: Vinyl floors; Laundry room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-14 ($-164/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $157k (1.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (25.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $119k (25.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#69 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Warren School District (town): math 26% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #198 of 238 in AR (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Warren Middle School (math 38% / reading 24%, grade F, #135 of 201 statewide, top 68%, 359 students, 100% FRL, charter) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 66% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.5% local appreciation)).
• Bradley County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($157k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,255 (25.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.37%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $70,993
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1509 W Pine St	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,848 (+12%)	14mo	$80,000	$43	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.47% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $5,698
• Equity at exit: $58,177

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $38,017
• Equity at exit: $80,420

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71671

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,193 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $668/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $-14

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,210

Max offer price $156,591

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $76	-5% $31	+0% $-14	+5% $-59	+10% $-104
Rent	-10% $-108	-5% $-61	+0% $-14	+5% $33	+10% $81
Rate	-1.0pp $66	-0.5pp $27	base $-14	+0.5pp $-55	+1.0pp $-97

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $159,000 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $159,000 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $159,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,000 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $159,000 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $159,000 New Listing 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $159,000 New Listing 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,000 New Listing 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,000 New Listing 3 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    remarks 24-char remark
15. 2026-06-04
    listed $159,000 New Listing 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $668 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,018 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: +$349/yr (+$29/mo · 52.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,311
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$668
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,145
• − Management: −$1,145
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable loss: −$2,974
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$714
• After-tax cash flow: $550/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warren School District
• NCES district ID: 0500006
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $32,986
• Composite: 19.22/100
• National rank: #8810
• State rank: #198 of 238 in AR

Livability — Warren

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #69
• US rank: #8546

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warren, AR
• Population (ZIP): 8,788

Population outlook (Bradley County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,347 people
• By 2030: 9,925 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 9,122 · -11.8%
• By 2050: 8,336 · -19.4%
• By 2075: 6,893 · -33.4%
• By 2100: 5,721 · -44.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Black 28% Hispanic / Latino 16% Native American 6% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Bradley

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.0) · D 29.9% · R 69.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.4pp · 2024: -39.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.0 2020: R+30.7 2016: R+23.4 2012: R+18.5 2008: R+14.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.47%
• Current HPI: 114.1937
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $159,000 CARMLS

Property tax history

+24.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $668 · -26.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.