Hibiscus Plan · Parrish, FL 34219

$359,620

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,988 sqft · SingleFamily · 151 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Hibiscus floorplan offers an open-concept floorplan with 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms and a 2-car garage. The open floorplan creates a living space with a kitchen that overlooks the spacious great room.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 151 days

🏗️ New construction. The $359,620 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $437,972.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $360k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $275k (23.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $295k (18.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $275k (23.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Annie Lucy Williams Elementary School (math 80% / reading 73%, grade A, #185 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 798 students, 31% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2985 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 79% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($316k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $275,340 (23.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.82%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $437,972
• List price: $359,620
• Delta: -17.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7041 Feather River Pl	0.15mi	4/3.0	1,972 (-1%)	3mo	$360,000	$183	90
7637 Satterfield Ter	0.40mi	4/3.0	1,988 (0%)	3mo	$385,000	$194	79
7742 Satterfield Ter	0.47mi	4/3.0	1,988 (0%)	1mo	$371,000	$187	78
7629 Satterfield Ter	0.39mi	4/3.0	1,988 (0%)	5mo	$376,950	$190	78
7730 Satterfield Ter	0.46mi	4/3.0	1,988 (0%)	3mo	$375,950	$189	76
7715 Gilchrist Springs Dr	0.45mi	4/3.0	1,988 (0%)	5mo	$347,000	$175	75
7633 Satterfield Ter	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,840 (-7%)	1mo	$345,000	$188	64
7628 Satterfield Ter	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,840 (-7%)	5mo	$359,000	$195	60
7821 Gilchrist Springs Dr	0.58mi	4/2.5	2,168 (+9%)	1mo	$358,000	$165	55
7930 Lake Powell Pl	0.65mi	4/2.5	2,168 (+9%)	1mo	$360,000	$166	51
7934 Lake Powell Pl	0.66mi	4/2.5	2,168 (+9%)	1mo	$375,510	$173	51
14162 Crutchfield Ct	0.65mi	4/2.5	2,168 (+9%)	4mo	$378,100	$174	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -40.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.23×
• Total profit: $-150,887
• Equity at exit: $65,303

10-year hold

• IRR: -91.4%
• Equity multiple: -1.09×
• Total profit: $-255,713
• Equity at exit: $37,868

Cash invested: $122,632 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 32 active · 16 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.4 mo (14%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $360,000 ($191/sqft)
• Median days on market: 59 d
• This list price: 44% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +15.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2985
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,949 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,297
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$547 /mo · $6,570/yr
• Insurance: −$182
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$619
• Net cashflow: $-1,124

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,371

Max offer price $275,340

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-821	-5% $-973	+0% $-1,124	+5% $-1,275	+10% $-1,427
Rent	-10% $-1,357	-5% $-1,240	+0% $-1,124	+5% $-1,007	+10% $-891
Rate	-1.0pp $-903	-0.5pp $-1,013	base $-1,124	+0.5pp $-1,237	+1.0pp $-1,353

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,493
• Closing costs: $13,139
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7148 Boggy Creek Pl Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1269	$1,889	$1.49	81d	1	0.28mi
7341 Boggy Creek Pl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	1700	$3,400	$2.00	2d	1	0.46mi
13089 Oak Hill Way Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2471	$2,650	$1.07	119d	1	0.78mi
13029 Oak Hill Way Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2073	$2,499	$1.21	9d	1	0.88mi
7633 Depot Loop Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2039	$3,500	$1.72	81d	1	0.94mi
12930 Oak Hill Way Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2453	$2,679	$1.09	116d	1	1.04mi
7070 Indus Valley Cir Parrish, FL	3.0	3.0	2494	$2,750	$1.10	85d	1	1.10mi
6915 Indus Valley Cir Parrish, FL	3.0	3.0	2461	$2,695	$1.10	106d	1	1.14mi
12488 Oak Hill Way Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1534	$2,295	$1.50	93d	1	1.21mi
12484 Oak Hill Way Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1518	$2,600	$1.71	119d	1	1.21mi
6969 Indus Valley Cir Parrish, FL	3.0	3.0	2461	$2,695	$1.10	106d	1	1.22mi
6969 Indus Valley Cir Parrish, FL	3.0	3.0	2461	$3,100	$1.26	9d	1	1.22mi
8850 Ginko Run Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1691	$2,575	$1.52	93d	1	1.27mi
12573 Oak Hill Way Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1518	$2,500	$1.65	98d	1	1.34mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Virtual tour available
• Financial info: List price $374,620

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage / 2 parking spaces
• Home design: New construction plan (Hibiscus)Located in Parrish, FL
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1988 (plan)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open floor plan (plan: Hibiscus)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-22
   days on market $359,620 Active 151 DOM
2. 2026-09-21
   days on market $359,620 Active 150 DOM
3. 2026-09-20
   days on market $359,620 Active 149 DOM
4. 2026-09-19
   days on market $359,620 Active 148 DOM
5. 2026-09-18
   days on market $359,620 Active 147 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $359,620 Active 146 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $359,620 Active 145 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $359,620 Active 144 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $359,620 Active 143 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $359,620 Active 142 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    price $359,620 Active 141 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $364,620 Active 141 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $364,620 Active 140 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $364,620 Active 134 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $364,620 Active 133 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $364,620 Active 132 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $364,620 Active 129 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $364,620 Active 128 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $364,620 Active 127 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    price $364,620 Active 126 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $369,620 Active 126 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $369,620 Active 125 DOM
23. 2026-08-26
    days on market $369,620 Active 124 DOM
24. 2026-08-25
    days on market $369,620 Active 123 DOM
25. 2026-08-24
    days on market $369,620 Active 122 DOM
26. 2026-08-23
    days on market $369,620 Active 121 DOM
27. 2026-08-22
    days on market $369,620 Active 120 DOM
28. 2026-08-21
    days on market $369,620 Active 119 DOM
29. 2026-08-20
    days on market $369,620 Active 118 DOM
30. 2026-08-19
    days on market $369,620 Active 117 DOM
31. 2026-08-18
    days on market $369,620 Active 116 DOM
32. 2026-08-17
    days on market $369,620 Active 115 DOM
33. 2026-08-16
    days on market $369,620 Active 114 DOM
34. 2026-08-15
    days on market $369,620 Active 113 DOM
35. 2026-08-14
    days on market $369,620 Active 112 DOM
36. 2026-08-13
    days on market $369,620 Active 111 DOM
37. 2026-08-12
    days on market $369,620 Active 110 DOM
38. 2026-08-11
    days on market $369,620 Active 109 DOM
39. 2026-08-10
    days on market $369,620 Active 108 DOM
40. 2026-08-09
    days on market $369,620 Active 107 DOM
41. 2026-08-08
    days on market $369,620 Active 106 DOM
42. 2026-08-07
    days on market $369,620 Active 105 DOM
43. 2026-08-06
    days on market $369,620 Active 104 DOM
44. 2026-08-05
    days on market $369,620 Active 103 DOM
45. 2026-08-04
    days on market $369,620 Active 102 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $369,620 Active 98 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $369,620 Active 96 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    pricedays on market $369,620 Active 95 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $368,420 Active 91 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $368,420 Active 90 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,383
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,533
• − Property taxes: −$6,570
• − Insurance: −$7,308
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,831
• − Management: −$2,831
• − Depreciation: −$12,741
• Taxable loss: −$21,431
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,143
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,344/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,940–$29,820 screening

The Hibiscus floorplan offers a well-maintained and modern home with good condition and minimal repairs needed. The home is move-in ready with potential for minor exterior painting to enhance curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior (if applicable) — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Replace light fixtures with energy-efficient LED ones — Saves on energy costs and improves the home's appearance ↑
• Both Install smart home devices for energy efficiency and convenience — Attracts buyers and renters who value smart home technology ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Annie Lucy Williams Elementary School A FL #185/2,144 Nat'l #1,912/41,679 Middle Buffalo Creek Middle School B- FL #180/571 Nat'l #2,482/14,009 High Palmetto High School F FL #456/667 Nat'l #11,621/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Parrish

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 447,342 people
• City population: 33,296
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Virtual tour available
• Financial info: List price $374,620

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage / 2 parking spaces
• Home design: New construction plan (Hibiscus)Located in Parrish, FL
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1988 (plan)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open floor plan (plan: Hibiscus)