25865 Walleye Dr Dr · Spirit Lake, IA 51360

$206,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 146 Days on market

Built 2000 10,019 sqft lot $136/sqft · 13% below area Est $238k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Vacation home or just a weekend get away makes this the perfect property for family and friends. The large windows let in an abundant of natural light that adds to the relaxing atmosphere. Relax in the spacious living room right off the open kitchen with stove, refrigerator, dishwasher and dining space for a large table and chairs. 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 full baths, deck on the back of the home to enjoy the sunsets on warm spring, summer and fall evenings or family grill outs. 16x40 storage shed is included with the property.

Key facts

• Large windows
• Storage shed
• Open kitchen

Tags

• LARGE WINDOWS
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• OPEN KITCHEN
• DECK ON THE BACK
• STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $206k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-19 ($-226/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $203k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (22.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 1.5% in Spirit Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#69 in IA, #1,522 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Spirit Lake Community School District (town): math 73% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #59 of 289 in IA (top 20%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Spirit Lake Elementary School (math 77% / reading 67%, grade A-, #181 of 616 statewide, top 34%, 537 students, 28% FRL); Spirit Lake Middle School (math 70% / reading 75%, grade A, #90 of 246 statewide, top 38%, 358 students, 24% FRL); Spirit Lake High School (math 77% / reading 87%, grade A, #20 of 336 statewide, top 7%, 409 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 25% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 141 active listings in the ZIP; 295 units permitted in Dickinson County in 2024 (16 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dickinson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($181k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,224 (22.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.39%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $237,570
• List price: $206,000
• Delta: -13.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25664 164th St	0.13mi	5/1.0 (+1)	1,608 (+6%)	2mo	$160,000	$100	72
25772 Martin Dr. Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,581 (+5%)	10mo	$60,000	$38	70
25620 164th St	0.18mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,416 (-6%)	22mo	$174,000	$123	54
25844 Martin Dr	0.35mi	4/2.0	1,680 (+11%)	22mo	$295,000	$176	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-34,643
• Equity at exit: $30,715

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-31,961
• Equity at exit: $17,811

Cash invested: $57,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 51360

• Active inventory: 141
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,602 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,080
• Tax from tax record: −$118 /mo · $1,422/yr
• Insurance: −$86
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $-19

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,626

Max offer price $202,670

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $98	-5% $39	+0% $-19	+5% $-77	+10% $-135
Rent	-10% $-145	-5% $-82	+0% $-19	+5% $44	+10% $108
Rate	-1.0pp $85	-0.5pp $34	base $-19	+0.5pp $-72	+1.0pp $-127

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,500
• Closing costs: $6,180
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2025-12-27
   listed $206,000 Active 531-char remark

   Show marketing remark (531 chars)

   Vacation home or just a weekend get away makes this the perfect property for family and friends. The large windows let in an abundant of natural light that adds to the relaxing atmosphere. Relax in the spacious living room right off the open kitchen with stove, refrigerator, dishwasher and dining space for a large table and chairs. 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 full baths, deck on the back of the home to enjoy the sunsets on warm spring, summer and fall evenings or family grill outs. 16x40 storage shed is included with the property.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,422 · $118/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,328 · $194/mo
• Expected delta: +$906/yr (+$76/mo · 63.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,227
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,539
• − Property taxes: −$1,422
• − Insurance: −$1,030
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,538
• − Management: −$1,538
• − Depreciation: −$5,993
• Taxable loss: −$3,833
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$920
• After-tax cash flow: $694/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spirit Lake Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1927000
• Math proficiency: 73% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 78% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $56,797
• Composite: 64.57/100
• National rank: #535
• State rank: #59 of 289 in IA

Livability — Spirit Lake

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #69
• US rank: #1522

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 8,561
• Population (ZIP): 8,561

Population outlook (Dickinson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,133 people
• By 2030: 18,610 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 19,456 · +7.3%
• By 2050: 20,307 · +12.0%
• By 2075: 23,155 · +27.7%
• By 2100: 24,449 · +34.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 9% Iranian 8% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dickinson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.0) · D 29.5% · R 69.5% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: -5.4pp · 2024: -40.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.0 2020: R+33.6 2016: R+36.0 2012: R+18.0 2008: R+5.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.60%
• Current HPI: 209.6205
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-27 Listed $206,000 IAR

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,422 · -3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.