20040 Kingmont Dr · Estero, FL 33928

$474,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,664 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 106 Days on market

Built 2023 6,734 sqft lot Est $441k · 8% over $377/mo HOA · 13% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +5.4/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• ARV discount +4.0/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Hot Springs Flair 6-seater hot tub is included with this sale! Motivated sellers invite you to discover this stunning Hallmark floor plan by Pulte Homes, featuring over $103,000 in both builder and owner upgrades! Throughout this 1677 square foot, 3/2 residence, you'll find a blend of premium comfort and great features, including extended 8’ doors and 5’1/4’ baseboards, plantation shutters, and upgraded tile flooring in an offset pattern. The upgraded kitchen features an entertaining layout with 42" upper cabinets and soft-close drawers, quartz countertops, matching Whirlpool appliances, a Blanco sink, a Moen faucet, and beautiful pendant lights complete the space. Th

Key facts

• Gated community
• Upgraded kitchen
• Spa-like bathroom

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• UPGRADED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• SPA-LIKE BATHROOM
• PRIVATE OASIS
• EXTENDED OUTDOOR LIVING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed: conditional (contact for details)
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fees (multiple fee amounts listed); Association covers management, grounds maintenance, recreation facilities, reserve fund, road maintenance, street lights and security; Community amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, pool, spa/hot tub, tennis and pickleball courts, bocce, basketball court, trails, sidewalks, dog park, restaurant and on-site management; Gated community with street lights

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway; Paved parking; Garage door opener; Two covered spaces
• Security: Gated community with guard; Security gate; Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; High speed internet available; Underground utilities; Irrigation water: lake and reclaimed water
• Home design: Single-story home; Entry level: 1; Faces south; Has a view
• Construction: Block, concrete and stucco construction; Tile roof; Resale property
• Exterior features: Lanai / screened patio/porch; Patio; Room for pool; Manual shutters; Sprinkler/irrigation (automatic); Paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Freezer; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Den (flex room); Great room; Screened porch (listed as room type)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Entrance foyer; Kitchen island; Living/dining room; Pantry; Cable TV; Walk-in closet(s); Split bedrooms; Shower only / Separate shower; Sliding windows; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $475k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $293k (38.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $299k (37.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $293k (38.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#149 in FL, #2,242 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 668 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($103k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($432k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $293,048 (38.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.29%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $440,960
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18297 Ridgeline Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,677 (+1%)	9mo	$445,000	$265	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -36.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-151,166
• Equity at exit: $70,809

10-year hold

• IRR: -74.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.88×
• Total profit: $-249,453
• Equity at exit: $41,061

Cash invested: $132,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33928

• Rents YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 668
• Price-to-rent: 13.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,989 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,490
• Tax from tax record: −$325 /mo · $3,903/yr
• Insurance: −$198
• HOA: −$377
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$628
• Net cashflow: $-1,029

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,292

Max offer price $293,048

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-761	-5% $-895	+0% $-1,029	+5% $-1,164	+10% $-1,298
Rent	-10% $-1,266	-5% $-1,147	+0% $-1,029	+5% $-911	+10% $-793
Rate	-1.0pp $-790	-0.5pp $-909	base $-1,029	+0.5pp $-1,152	+1.0pp $-1,278

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $118,725
• Closing costs: $14,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20024 Hartford Blvd Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2081	$6,950	$3.34	25d	1	0.06mi
20015 Napa Loop Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$8,000	$3.63	25d	1	0.11mi
20047 Napa Loop Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$9,000	$4.09	4d	1	0.19mi
18282 Parksville Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2126	$10,000	$4.70	25d	1	0.23mi
19712 Deming Ln Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2091	$8,500	$4.07	22d	1	0.53mi
20419 Pebble Glen Dr Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2088	$6,490	$3.11	25d	1	0.58mi
18315 Ridgeline Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$3,750	$1.70	17d	1	0.58mi
20514 Pebble Glen Dr Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1670	$5,700	$3.41	25d	1	0.70mi
20285 Napa Loop Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2133	$6,200	$2.91	25d	1	0.73mi
20530 Pebble Glen Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2099	$5,950	$2.83	25d	1	0.73mi
19565 Deming Ln Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	1852	$3,800	$2.05	25d	1	0.75mi
19563 Utopia Ln Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2010	$5,995	$2.98	25d	1	0.78mi
19278 Hinkley Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2201	$3,395	$1.54	4d	1	0.81mi
19527 Utopia Ln Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	1852	$4,000	$2.16	25d	1	0.86mi
19218 Hinkley Dr Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1655	$3,000	$1.81	15d	1	0.96mi
19824 Beechcrest Pl Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$7,000	$3.18	25d	1	1.02mi
19265 Elston Way Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	1852	$3,800	$2.05	25d	1	1.31mi
19232 Gentry Pl Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$3,800	$1.73	25d	1	1.34mi
19952 Beverly Park Rd Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	1852	$4,000	$2.16	25d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $377 · $4,524/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-24
   price $474,900
3. 2026-01-18
   listed $479,900 Active
4. 2025-11-04
   historical
5. 2025-07-07
   price $549,900
6. 2025-06-10
   listed $559,900 Active
7. 2021-11-15
   soldstatus $13,016,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,903 · $325/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,942 · $328/mo
• Expected delta: +$38/yr (+$3/mo · 1.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,866
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,602
• − Property taxes: −$3,903
• − Insurance: −$2,374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,869
• − Management: −$2,869
• − HOA: −$4,524
• − Depreciation: −$13,815
• Taxable loss: −$21,092
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,062
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,291/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Estero

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #2242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 31,926
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,926
• Household income: $102,624
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 606.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.49%
• Current HPI: 197.5913
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.42%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-96.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $474,900 FORTMLS
• 2026-01-18 Listed $479,900 FORTMLS
• 2025-11-04 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2025-07-07 Price Changed $549,900 FORTMLS
• 2025-06-10 Listed $559,900 FORTMLS
• 2021-11-15 Sold (Public Records) $13,016,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+21.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,903 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.