1254 Canfield Cir SE · Palm Bay, FL 32909

$348,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,557 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 56 Days on market

Built 2023 4,792 sqft lot $102/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Backyard waterfront views, western evening sunsets, and a screened lanai create an outdoor living experience that immediately sets this Gardens at Waterstone home apart. The fully fenced backyard offers room for pets, play, or simply enjoying quiet evenings by the water, while the extended paver patio provides additional space for outdoor dining, lounging, or gathering with friends without feeling crowded. Built in 2023 and meticulously maintained, this move-in ready 3-bedroom, 2-bath home combines the appeal of newer construction with the advantage of thoughtful finishing touches already completed. Inside, the kitchen anchors the main living space with quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, generous cabinet storage, and a center island with seating that keeps everyone connected whether preparing meals, helping with homework, or hosting game-day snacks. The kitchen overlooks both the living area and backyard water views, creating an easy everyday flow throughout the home. The primary suite offers a peaceful retreat with water views and a layout designed for both comfort and functionality, while the secondary bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, home office space, hobbies, or growing households. Apple-compatible voice-activated smart-home features add convenience throughout the property, blending modern technology with clean contemporary styling. Located just minutes from Sunrise Elementary, The Shoppes at Cypress Bay with Publix, dining, and convenient I-95 access, the community also offers amenities including a pool, pickleball courts, and playground. Low HOA and no CDD help keep ownership more manageable while still enjoying the benefits of a thoughtfully planned neighborhood. VA, FHA, Conventional, and Cash welcome.

Key facts

• Screened patio
• Lake front home
• Privacy fence

Tags

• LAKE FRONT HOME
• SS APPLIANCE PACKAGE
• QUARTZ COUNTER TOPS
• APPLE SMART HOME SYSTEM
• PRIVACY FENCE
• SCREENED PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed with limits
• HOA & community: Part of Gardens at Waterstone association; Quarterly HOA fee ($306); Association maintains common areas; Community amenities include pool, playground, pickleball courts, and sidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener; Driveway; Total parking for 4 vehicles (2 covered spaces)
• Security: Smoke detectors; Gated (no guard)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available (three-phase); Cable available
• Home design: Single family residence; One-story; Resale property; Faces east; Builder model: Azalea
• Construction: CBS construction; Block foundation; Composition/shingle roof; Built as model Azalea
• Exterior features: Covered, open and screened patios; Patio; Fenced yard; Sidewalks; Private road frontage; Waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; Blinds and sliding window features; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $348k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-562 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (28.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (36.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (36.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#366 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, health & safety D-.
• Brevard (suburban): math 53% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #19 of 73 in FL (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sunrise Elementary School (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #892 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 759 students, 58% FRL); Southwest Middle School (math 40% / reading 39%, grade F, #373 of 571 statewide, top 66%, 920 students, 58% FRL); Bayside High School (math 27% / reading 40%, grade F, #400 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 1,854 students, 51% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 55% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Brevard average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 1123 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,602 units permitted in Brevard County in 2024 (702 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $37k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $35k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Brevard County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$60k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($338k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $221,967 (36.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.92%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $155,250
• Equity at exit: $313,506

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.01×
• Total profit: $488,409
• Equity at exit: $676,087

Cash invested: $97,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32909

• Home prices YoY: 6.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 1123
• Price-to-rent: 13.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,220 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,825
• Tax from tax record: −$243 /mo · $2,918/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$102
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
• Net cashflow: $-562

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,930

Max offer price $248,802

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-365	-5% $-463	+0% $-562	+5% $-660	+10% $-759
Rent	-10% $-737	-5% $-649	+0% $-562	+5% $-474	+10% $-386
Rate	-1.0pp $-386	-0.5pp $-473	base $-562	+0.5pp $-652	+1.0pp $-743

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,000
• Closing costs: $10,440
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1063 Grantham Ln SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,000	$1.32	25d	1	0.09mi
3636 Aberdeen Dr SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,295	$1.25	21d	1	0.36mi
1496 Dittmer Cir SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	2187	$2,440	$1.12	16d	1	0.42mi
925 Dugan Cir SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,295	$1.25	15d	1	0.42mi
1394 Garabaldi Cir SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1876	$2,500	$1.33	21d	1	0.47mi
1783 Dittmer Cir SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	2207	$2,100	$0.95	25d	1	0.48mi
1434 Garabaldi Cir SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	15d	1	0.49mi
1213 Waterford St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1695	$2,000	$1.18	25d	1	0.51mi
1453 Santa Anna St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1994	$2,500	$1.25	16d	1	0.64mi
1566 Criswell Ln SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	2046	$2,400	$1.17	25d	1	0.70mi
820 Tedder Rd SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1808	$2,000	$1.11	25d	1	0.82mi
1884 Middlebury Dr SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1761	$2,000	$1.14	25d	1	0.84mi
1843 Middlebury Dr SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1822	$2,200	$1.21	25d	1	0.86mi
2877 Palisades Dr SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1974	$2,150	$1.09	21d	1	1.00mi
2073 Farmhouse Rd SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,133	$1.17	25d	1	1.19mi
3219 Hainsworth Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1219	$2,100	$1.72	16d	1	1.23mi
2183 Farmhouse Rd SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1676	$2,000	$1.19	25d	1	1.30mi
1198 Venus St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1535	$1,961	$1.28	23d	1	1.30mi
496 Vanguard St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1666	$2,150	$1.29	25d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $102 · $1,224/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $348,000 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $348,000 Active 53 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $348,000 Active 52 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $348,000 Active 51 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $348,000 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $348,000 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $348,000 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   price $348,000 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $349,999 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $349,999 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $349,999 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $349,999 Active 38 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $349,999 Active 37 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $349,999 Active 36 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $349,999 Active 35 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $349,999 Active 34 DOM
17. 2026-05-22
    price $349,999 1761-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1761 chars)

    Backyard waterfront views, western evening sunsets, and a screened lanai create an outdoor living experience that immediately sets this Gardens at Waterstone home apart. The fully fenced backyard offers room for pets, play, or simply enjoying quiet evenings by the water, while the extended paver patio provides additional space for outdoor dining, lounging, or gathering with friends without feeling crowded. Built in 2023 and meticulously maintained, this move-in ready 3-bedroom, 2-bath home combines the appeal of newer construction with the advantage of thoughtful finishing touches already completed. Inside, the kitchen anchors the main living space with quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, generous cabinet storage, and a center island with seating that keeps everyone connected whether preparing meals, helping with homework, or hosting game-day snacks. The kitchen overlooks both the living area and backyard water views, creating an easy everyday flow throughout the home. The primary suite offers a peaceful retreat with water views and a layout designed for both comfort and functionality, while the secondary bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, home office space, hobbies, or growing households. Apple-compatible voice-activated smart-home features add convenience throughout the property, blending modern technology with clean contemporary styling. Located just minutes from Sunrise Elementary, The Shoppes at Cypress Bay with Publix, dining, and convenient I-95 access, the community also offers amenities including a pool, pickleball courts, and playground. Low HOA and no CDD help keep ownership more manageable while still enjoying the benefits of a thoughtfully planned neighborhood. VA, FHA, Conventional, and Cash welcome.

18. 2026-05-22
    price $349,999

    Show marketing remark (1761 chars)

    Backyard waterfront views, western evening sunsets, and a screened lanai create an outdoor living experience that immediately sets this Gardens at Waterstone home apart. The fully fenced backyard offers room for pets, play, or simply enjoying quiet evenings by the water, while the extended paver patio provides additional space for outdoor dining, lounging, or gathering with friends without feeling crowded. Built in 2023 and meticulously maintained, this move-in ready 3-bedroom, 2-bath home combines the appeal of newer construction with the advantage of thoughtful finishing touches already completed. Inside, the kitchen anchors the main living space with quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, generous cabinet storage, and a center island with seating that keeps everyone connected whether preparing meals, helping with homework, or hosting game-day snacks. The kitchen overlooks both the living area and backyard water views, creating an easy everyday flow throughout the home. The primary suite offers a peaceful retreat with water views and a layout designed for both comfort and functionality, while the secondary bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, home office space, hobbies, or growing households. Apple-compatible voice-activated smart-home features add convenience throughout the property, blending modern technology with clean contemporary styling. Located just minutes from Sunrise Elementary, The Shoppes at Cypress Bay with Publix, dining, and convenient I-95 access, the community also offers amenities including a pool, pickleball courts, and playground. Low HOA and no CDD help keep ownership more manageable while still enjoying the benefits of a thoughtfully planned neighborhood. VA, FHA, Conventional, and Cash welcome.

19. 2026-04-26
    listed $359,900 Active 1761-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1761 chars)

    Backyard waterfront views, western evening sunsets, and a screened lanai create an outdoor living experience that immediately sets this Gardens at Waterstone home apart. The fully fenced backyard offers room for pets, play, or simply enjoying quiet evenings by the water, while the extended paver patio provides additional space for outdoor dining, lounging, or gathering with friends without feeling crowded. Built in 2023 and meticulously maintained, this move-in ready 3-bedroom, 2-bath home combines the appeal of newer construction with the advantage of thoughtful finishing touches already completed. Inside, the kitchen anchors the main living space with quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, generous cabinet storage, and a center island with seating that keeps everyone connected whether preparing meals, helping with homework, or hosting game-day snacks. The kitchen overlooks both the living area and backyard water views, creating an easy everyday flow throughout the home. The primary suite offers a peaceful retreat with water views and a layout designed for both comfort and functionality, while the secondary bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, home office space, hobbies, or growing households. Apple-compatible voice-activated smart-home features add convenience throughout the property, blending modern technology with clean contemporary styling. Located just minutes from Sunrise Elementary, The Shoppes at Cypress Bay with Publix, dining, and convenient I-95 access, the community also offers amenities including a pool, pickleball courts, and playground. Low HOA and no CDD help keep ownership more manageable while still enjoying the benefits of a thoughtfully planned neighborhood. VA, FHA, Conventional, and Cash welcome.

20. 2026-04-25
    listed $359,900 Active
21. 2025-09-29
    historical
22. 2025-07-16
    listed $364,900 Active
23. 2023-11-20
    soldstatus $355,000 Closed
24. 2023-10-16
    status Pending
25. 2023-09-08
    price $359,990
26. 2023-09-01
    listed $365,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,918 · $243/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,918 · $243/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,636
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,493
• − Property taxes: −$2,918
• − Insurance: −$1,740
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,131
• − Management: −$2,131
• − HOA: −$1,224
• − Depreciation: −$10,124
• Taxable loss: −$13,124
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,150
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,589/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brevard
• NCES district ID: 1200150
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,426
• Composite: 46.86/100
• National rank: #2370
• State rank: #19 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Bay

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #366
• US rank: #6458

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Bay, FL
• County: Brevard County · 602,871 people
• City population: 132,211
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,804
• Household income: $79,977
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 697.0

Population outlook (Brevard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 623,254 people
• By 2030: 648,420 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 690,009 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 715,669 · +14.8%
• By 2075: 775,744 · +24.5%
• By 2100: 776,687 · +24.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 16% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brevard

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 39.1% · R 59.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.4pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+16.4 2016: R+19.8 2012: R+12.7 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.81%
• Current HPI: 330.8595
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-4.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $349,999 SCMLS
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $349,999 Beaches MLS
• 2026-04-26 Listed $359,900 SCMLS
• 2026-04-25 Listed $359,900 Beaches MLS
• 2025-09-29 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2025-07-16 Listed $364,900 Beaches MLS
• 2023-11-20 Sold (MLS) $355,000 SCMLS
• 2023-10-16 Pending — SCMLS
• 2023-09-08 Price Changed $359,990 SCMLS
• 2023-09-01 Listed $365,990 SCMLS

Property tax history

+46.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,918 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.