2826 Winchester St · Baltimore, MD 21216

$70,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,382 sqft · Townhouse public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1940 1,500 sqft lot Est $106k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

ONLINE AUCTION!! Bidding Opens - Monday, August 10, 2020 Bidding Closes - Thursday, August 13, 2020 at 11:00 AM. List price is opening bid only. A 10% deposit, payable by cashier's check or wire transfer, will be required of the purchaser. A 5% buyer's premium will be added to the final bid price. Home is currently rented for $960/month. Please contact listing broker's office for full terms, bidder pre-registration form and property details.

Key facts

• Heart of baltimore
• Unfinished basement
• Multiple bus routes

Tags

• BRICK-FRONT END-UNIT TOWNHOUSE
• UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• HEART OF BALTIMORE
• EASY ACCESS TO UPTON PARK
• EASY ACCESS TO MONDAWMIN MALL
• MULTIPLE BUS ROUTES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Ground rent paid annually

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas hot water
• Home design: End of row townhouse; Fee simple ownership; Estimated year built
• Construction: Brick construction; Block foundation; Above-grade structure
• Exterior features: Fully fenced yard; Porch(es)

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Radiator heating; Natural gas heating; Cooling: Other (unspecified)
• Interior features: Estimated living area; Basement present
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in the basement

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $70,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$106,414) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $937 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Cap rate 22.4% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 252 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,762/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($42k/yr) (locally 2264% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask is 13% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $70k implies a 102% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 57.35%
• DSCR: 3.55
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $106,414
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3018 Presstman St	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (+1%)	1mo	$108,000	$77	78
2920 Brighton St	0.29mi	3/2.5	1,440 (+4%)	2mo	$247,500	$172	76
1625 N Rosedale St	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,396 (+1%)	2mo	$36,000	$26	73
1528 N Ellamont St	0.43mi	3/2.5	1,328 (-4%)	1mo	$209,000	$157	71
3004 Brighton St	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,288 (-7%)	1mo	$44,000	$34	70
2404 W Lafayette Ave	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,476 (+7%)	2mo	$135,000	$91	62
2514 W Lafayette Ave	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+13%)	2mo	$232,000	$149	56
3224 Belmont Ave	0.37mi	3/1.5	1,178 (-15%)	1mo	$77,000	$65	55
2435 Lauretta Ave	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,260 (-9%)	1mo	$45,000	$36	48
537 Longwood St	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,176 (-15%)	0mo	$60,000	$51	45
2400 W Lafayette Ave	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,584 (+15%)	2mo	$263,000	$166	44
1601 Ruxton Ave	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,568 (+14%)	1mo	$90,000	$57	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 59.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.75×
• Total profit: $53,991
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 65.1%
• Equity multiple: 8.58×
• Total profit: $148,650
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21216

• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 252
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,762 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $705/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $937

Break-even live

Break-even rent $576

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2806 Riggs Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1412	$1,900	$1.35	3d	1	0.12mi
1402 Poplar Grove St Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.5	1540	$800	$0.52	43d	1	0.12mi
2728 Winchester St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1260	$1,800	$1.43	3d	1	0.13mi
2744 W Mosher St Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1412	$2,100	$1.49	24d	1	0.20mi
2800 Presstman St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1460	$1,799	$1.23	24d	1	0.20mi
3003 Presstman St Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1450	$1,300	$0.90	24d	1	0.21mi
3003 Presstman St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1450	$1,400	$0.97	44d	1	0.21mi
1042 Ellicott Dr Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	43d	1	0.24mi
1530 N Rosedale St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1641	$1,895	$1.15	14d	1	0.33mi
3238 Westmont Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1280	$1,600	$1.25	43d	1	0.33mi
1513 N Ellamont St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1700	$1,700	$1.00	24d	1	0.35mi
3127 Baker St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	43d	1	0.37mi
3015 Rayner Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,350	$1.17	43d	1	0.41mi
3309 Brighton St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1134	$1,700	$1.50	43d	1	0.44mi
3003 W North Ave Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	841	$935	$1.11	2d	3	0.49mi
2922 Edmondson Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1620	$1,900	$1.17	43d	1	0.51mi
2636 W North Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,475	$1.51	4d	1	0.58mi
2301 Riggs Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1072	$1,600	$1.49	24d	1	0.59mi
2636 Lauretta Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1232	$1,900	$1.54	43d	1	0.60mi
1617 Moreland Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	24d	1	0.61mi
1617-A Moreland Ave Unit 2nd Flr Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1500	$1,400	$0.93	43d	1	0.62mi
780 Linnard St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,590	$1.30	43d	1	0.63mi
2917 Clifton Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	4.0	1700	$2,150	$1.26	24d	1	0.63mi
798 N Grantley St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1360	$2,295	$1.69	24d	1	0.63mi
2609 Lauretta Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1286	$1,675	$1.30	24d	1	0.64mi
918 N Bentalou St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1485	$1,750	$1.18	43d	1	0.64mi
787 N Grantley St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1116	$1,575	$1.41	24d	1	0.64mi
2812 Clifton Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1650	$1,850	$1.12	43d	1	0.66mi
2815 W Mulberry St Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1040	$2,050	$1.97	43d	1	0.66mi
2303 Calverton Heights Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1314	$2,250	$1.71	24d	1	0.67mi
2405 W North Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	3.0	1826	$1,900	$1.04	4d	1	0.69mi
730 Linnard St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.0	1360	$1,750	$1.29	24d	1	0.72mi
1816 N Bentalou St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,700	$1.26	24d	1	0.75mi
1816 N Bentalou St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,700	$1.26	11d	1	0.75mi
3017 Poplar Ter Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	880	$1,349	$1.53	24d	1	0.77mi
3423 Edmondson Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1400	$1,710	$1.22	43d	1	0.77mi
623 N Grantley St Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1250	$2,000	$1.60	24d	1	0.81mi
3507 Edmondson Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1428	$2,300	$1.61	43d	1	0.82mi
1501 N Payson St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,550	$1.11	43d	1	0.87mi
3712 Gelston Dr Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,500	$2.00	24d	1	0.88mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $70,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-05-12
   status Pending
7. 2026-05-10
   price $70,000
8. 2026-05-09
   listed $62,000 Active
9. 2026-03-31
   historical
10. 2026-01-08
    price $75,000
11. 2025-11-22
    price $85,000
12. 2025-11-08
    price $90,000
13. 2025-10-18
    price $95,000
14. 2025-10-08
    listed $105,000 Active
15. 2020-09-02
    soldstatus $34,650 Closed 445-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    ONLINE AUCTION!! Bidding Opens - Monday, August 10, 2020 Bidding Closes - Thursday, August 13, 2020 at 11:00 AM. List price is opening bid only. A 10% deposit, payable by cashier's check or wire transfer, will be required of the purchaser. A 5% buyer's premium will be added to the final bid price. Home is currently rented for $960/month. Please contact listing broker's office for full terms, bidder pre-registration form and property details.

16. 2020-08-14
    status Pending 445-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    ONLINE AUCTION!! Bidding Opens - Monday, August 10, 2020 Bidding Closes - Thursday, August 13, 2020 at 11:00 AM. List price is opening bid only. A 10% deposit, payable by cashier's check or wire transfer, will be required of the purchaser. A 5% buyer's premium will be added to the final bid price. Home is currently rented for $960/month. Please contact listing broker's office for full terms, bidder pre-registration form and property details.

17. 2020-07-23
    listed $25,000 Active 445-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    ONLINE AUCTION!! Bidding Opens - Monday, August 10, 2020 Bidding Closes - Thursday, August 13, 2020 at 11:00 AM. List price is opening bid only. A 10% deposit, payable by cashier's check or wire transfer, will be required of the purchaser. A 5% buyer's premium will be added to the final bid price. Home is currently rented for $960/month. Please contact listing broker's office for full terms, bidder pre-registration form and property details.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $705 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $734 · $61/mo
• Expected delta: +$29/yr (+$2/mo · 4.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,140
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$705
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,691
• − Management: −$1,691
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $10,745
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,579
• After-tax cash flow: $8,662/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 29,426
• Household income: $42,031
• Rent vs Own: 49.8% rent · 50.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2264.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 91% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% White 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.42%
• Current HPI: 164.3933
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.10%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+180.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $70,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-09 Listed $62,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $75,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-22 Price Changed $85,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-08 Price Changed $90,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-18 Price Changed $95,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-08 Listed $105,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-09-02 Sold (MLS) $34,650 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-08-14 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-07-23 Listed $25,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

-6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $705 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.