516 W Elm St · Harrisburg, IL 62946

$7,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 504 sqft · SingleFamily · 106 Days on market

5,000 sqft lot $15/sqft · 85% below area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for a tiny house? Check out this row style home in Harrisburg! This home is not habitable. This property is being Sold AS-IS. No interior access to structure allowed. Buyers Must Do Their Own Due Diligence to Verify Number of Beds, Baths, Square Footage, Room Sizes, Lot Size & Any Other Property Details. Listing Broker & Seller assume no responsibility and make no guarantees, warranties (expressed or implied) or representations as to the availability or accuracy of information contained herein.

Key facts

• 5,000 sq ft lot
• Listed 105 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $8k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $611 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($850 rent vs $8k).
• Recommended offer: $7k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 104.1% vs local median 5.1% in Harrisburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#309 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, commute F, employment F.
• Harrisburg CUSD 3 (town): math 5% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #521 of 620 in IL (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $52 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $225 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saline County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $2k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($7k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $6,825 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 11.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 104.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 349.26%
• DSCR: 16.54
• GRM: 0.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $50,227
• List price: $7,500
• Delta: -85.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 18.97×
• Total profit: $37,730
• Equity at exit: $1,118

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 40.55×
• Total profit: $83,052
• Equity at exit: $648

Cash invested: $2,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62946

• Active inventory: 73
• Price-to-rent: 0.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $850 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$39
• Tax from tax record: −$18 /mo · $210/yr
• Insurance: −$3
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$178
• Net cashflow: $611

Break-even live

Break-even rent $76

Max offer price $7,500

Occupancy floor 23%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,875
• Closing costs: $225
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $7,500 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $7,500 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $7,500 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $7,500 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $7,500 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $7,500 Active 100 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $7,500 Active 97 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $7,500 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $7,500 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $7,500 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $7,500 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $7,500 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $7,500 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $7,500 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $7,500 Active 87 DOM
16. 2026-03-04
    listed $7,500 Active 517-char remark

    Show marketing remark (517 chars)

    Looking for a tiny house? Check out this row style home in Harrisburg! This home is not habitable. This property is being Sold AS-IS. No interior access to structure allowed. Buyers Must Do Their Own Due Diligence to Verify Number of Beds, Baths, Square Footage, Room Sizes, Lot Size & Any Other Property Details. Listing Broker & Seller assume no responsibility and make no guarantees, warranties (expressed or implied) or representations as to the availability or accuracy of information contained herein.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $210 · $18/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $210 · $18/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,195
• − Mortgage interest: −$420
• − Property taxes: −$210
• − Insurance: −$38
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$816
• − Management: −$816
• − Depreciation: −$218
• Taxable income: $7,678
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,843
• After-tax cash flow: $5,492/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrisburg CUSD 3
• NCES district ID: 1718270
• Math proficiency: 5% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $38,717
• Composite: 12.61/100
• National rank: #9613
• State rank: #521 of 620 in IL

Livability — Harrisburg

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #309
• US rank: #6073

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Harrisburg, IL
• Population (ZIP): 11,465

Population outlook (Saline County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,915 people
• By 2030: 23,262 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 21,775 · -8.9%
• By 2050: 20,098 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 15,234 · -36.3%
• By 2100: 10,302 · -56.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Saline

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.0) · D 24.8% · R 73.8% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -40.1pp toward R · 2008: -8.9pp · 2024: -49.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.0 2020: R+47.9 2016: R+50.7 2012: R+29.0 2008: R+8.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.20%
• Current HPI: 102.6962
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Listed $7,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-1.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $210 · -9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.