2618 Woodlake Dr · Abilene, TX 79606

$369,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,276 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1981 0.29 ac lot Est $398k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.4/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice brick home with swimming pool, side entry garage, extended drive for additional parking. Four bedrooms. Master bath offers separate tub and shower, walk in closet. Additional closet in entry to master bedroom. Half bath located by kitchen and garage giving convenient access from the pool. Built in hutch in breakfast nook. Formal dining area adjacent to entry. Sunken paneled living room with corner fireplace. Spacious kitchen with ample cabinetry. Large utility room. Bring your cosmetic ideas, carpeting has been removed!

Key facts

• Gas cooktop
• Vented hood
• Brick fireplace

Tags

• BRICK FIREPLACE
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• WHITE SUBWAY TILE BACKSPLASH
• GAS COOKTOP
• VENTED HOOD
• LARGE WINDOW

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Exclusion: Grey building on the side of the house
• Financial info: Accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, VA loan
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Attached garage with 2 covered spaces
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Residential property; Subdivision: Woodlake
• Construction: Brick construction; Metal roof; Slab foundation; Built in 1981
• Exterior features: Back yard fencing (wood); Covered rear porch; In-ground outdoor pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Gas oven
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (primary bedroom on entry level)
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 3 total bathrooms (2 full, 1 half)
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Electric cooling; Ceiling fan(s); Natural gas heat
• Interior features: Built-in features; Cable TV available; One living area; Two dining areas; Living room on entry level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $370k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $278 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $364k (1.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $359k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#142 in TX, #4,037 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F.
• Abilene ISD (urban): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #575 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ward El (math 38% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,651 of 4,322 statewide, top 39%, 494 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+40.7%/yr); 288 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 508 units permitted in Taylor County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,642/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($79k/yr) (locally 1181% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taylor County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $104k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($359k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $358,803 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.23%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $398,300
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5518 Chimney Rock Rd	0.09mi	4/4.0	2,436 (+7%)	2mo	$319,900	$131	76
2409 Lynbrook Dr	0.38mi	4/2.0	2,334 (+2%)	2mo	$460,000	$197	75
2549 Woodlake Dr	0.06mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,969 (-14%)	2mo	$374,900	$190	68
42 Riviera Cir	0.24mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,429 (+7%)	5mo	$425,000	$175	67
5057 Quail Ter	0.43mi	4/3.5	2,398 (+5%)	1mo	$400,000	$167	66
2558 Meadow Lake Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,598 (+14%)	2mo	$325,000	$125	60
4624 Oak Knoll St	0.68mi	4/2.0	2,224 (-2%)	5mo	$310,000	$139	58
5810 Legacy Dr	0.54mi	4/2.0	2,032 (-11%)	4mo	$397,000	$195	52
37 Pinehurst St	0.73mi	4/2.0	2,433 (+7%)	2mo	$375,000	$154	51
33 Tamarisk Cir	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,427 (+7%)	5mo	$420,000	$173	49
3297 Woodlake Dr	0.69mi	4/2.0	2,035 (-11%)	1mo	$359,900	$177	48
9 Tamarisk Cir	0.73mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,139 (-6%)	5mo	$385,000	$180	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-22,878
• Equity at exit: $55,153

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $90,841
• Equity at exit: $31,982

Cash invested: $103,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79606

• Rents YoY: 40.7%
• Active inventory: 288
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,642 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,940
• Tax from tax record: −$505 /mo · $6,056/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$765
• Net cashflow: $278

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,289

Max offer price $369,900

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,475
• Closing costs: $11,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5733 Legacy Dr Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1843	$5,000	$2.71	4d	1	0.52mi
2418 Helena Cir Abilene, TX	4.0	2.5	2478	$3,700	$1.49	10d	1	0.69mi
2510 Gilmer Ave Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1974	$2,995	$1.52	43d	1	0.76mi
5400 Ridgeline Dr Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	2571	$6,000	$2.33	24d	1	0.79mi
3134 Winterhawk Dr Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,795	$1.55	7d	1	0.83mi
3826 Crest Way Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1721	$2,695	$1.57	43d	1	1.12mi
4617 Catclaw Dr Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	2263	$2,500	$1.10	13d	1	1.29mi
6901 Glen Abbey St Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	1648	$3,795	$2.30	20d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $369,900 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $369,900 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $369,900 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   status $369,900 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $369,900 Active Option Contract 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $369,900 Active Option Contract 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $369,900 Active Option Contract 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $369,900 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $369,900 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    remarks 687-char remark
11. 2026-06-09
    listed $369,900 Active 23 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,056 · $505/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,769 · $564/mo
• Expected delta: +$714/yr (+$59/mo · 11.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,701
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,720
• − Property taxes: −$6,056
• − Insurance: −$1,850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,496
• − Management: −$3,496
• − Depreciation: −$10,761
• Taxable loss: −$2,677
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$642
• After-tax cash flow: $3,984/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Abilene ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807440
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,782
• Composite: 27.71/100
• National rank: #6909
• State rank: #575 of 826 in TX

Livability — Abilene

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #4037

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Abilene, TX
• County: Taylor County · 136,672 people
• City population: 136,672
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,182
• Household income: $79,196
• Rent vs Own: 47.0% rent · 53.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1181.0

Population outlook (Taylor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,270 people
• By 2030: 150,050 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 159,417 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 168,883 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 194,436 · +33.8%
• By 2100: 203,163 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Black 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Taylor

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.8) · D 24.6% · R 74.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -45.6pp · 2024: -49.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.8 2020: R+45.3 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+53.6 2008: R+45.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -167.33%
• Current HPI: 179.2555
• Rent YoY: ▲ 40.73%
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+51.0% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-06-08 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-05-11 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-05-11 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-05-04 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-04-25 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-04-23 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-04-20 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $369,900 NTREIS
• 2021-10-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-02-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-02-05 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2021-01-14 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2021-01-08 Price Changed $239,500 NTREIS
• 2020-12-16 Listed $245,000 NTREIS
• 2013-10-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-09-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-08-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,056 · -2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.