2725 Mackinac Bay Dr · Texas City, TX 77568

$349,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,170 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 628 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition $161/sqft · 17% below area Est $425k · 18% under ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +5.4/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Hello and welcome to the Midland floor plan! This is a two-story house that includes four bedrooms, three bathrooms, an upstairs loft, and a two-car garage. This house spans 2,173 square feet and will be a lovely abode for you and your family! The entry opens to a downstairs guest bedroom and bath with hall linen closet. The kitchen includes a breakfast bar with beautiful granite counter tops, stainless steel appliances and a corner pantry. Open concept floorplan boasts spacious family room and dining area. Extra storage space under the stairs is a plus. The private primary suite with attractive primary bath features dual vanities, shower, tub, and walk-in closet. A versatile loft area greets you at the top of the stairs and opens to two additional bedrooms and bath. The standard rear covered patio is located off the dining area, perfect for enjoying your backyard. Resort Pool,  12-acre Lagoon, Golf Cart accessible, Parks, Fitness Center.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025
• Listed 627 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $350k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-836 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (37.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $268k (23.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (37.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#907 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hughes Road El (math 36% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,174 of 4,322 statewide, top 51%, 707 students, 67% FRL); Dunbar Middle (math 25% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 654 students, 78% FRL); Dickinson H S (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #880 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 3,619 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 983 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 79d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 628 days — a 12% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,553 (37.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 628 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.42%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $424,771
• List price: $349,990
• Delta: -17.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2901 Fair Wind Ln	0.21mi	4/2.0	2,160 (-0%)	1mo	$380,000	$176	85
14315 Freeboard Dr	0.32mi	4/2.5	2,198 (+1%)	0mo	$349,900	$159	80
13717 Blue Breaker Dr	0.36mi	4/2.0	2,188 (+1%)	0mo	$380,900	$174	78
2909 Fair Wind Ln	0.22mi	4/3.5	2,415 (+11%)	0mo	$411,900	$171	69
14021 Baikal Manor Dr	0.64mi	4/3.0	2,196 (+1%)	2mo	$334,990	$153	66
14005 Baikal Manor Dr	0.67mi	4/3.0	2,196 (+1%)	2mo	$354,990	$162	65
13913 Baikal Manor Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0	2,144 (-1%)	2mo	$339,990	$159	60
14507 Lunan Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,915 (-12%)	2mo	$336,936	$176	59
2905 Fair Wind Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,850 (-15%)	1mo	$359,900	$195	56
13914 Seneca Lake Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,901 (-12%)	0mo	$289,900	$152	52
13909 Baikal Manor Dr	0.72mi	4/2.0	1,990 (-8%)	2mo	$352,990	$177	47
13921 Baikal Manor Dr	0.70mi	4/2.0	1,872 (-14%)	1mo	$329,990	$176	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-107,007
• Equity at exit: $52,185

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.52×
• Total profit: $-149,423
• Equity at exit: $30,261

Cash invested: $97,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 262 active · 122 under contract
• Months of supply: 16.0 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $349,990 ($168/sqft)
• Median days on market: 68 d
• This list price: 49% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +16.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77568

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 983
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,681 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$906 /mo · $10,878/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$563
• Net cashflow: $-836

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,739

Max offer price $217,553

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-638	-5% $-737	+0% $-836	+5% $-935	+10% $-1,034
Rent	-10% $-1,048	-5% $-942	+0% $-836	+5% $-730	+10% $-624
Rate	-1.0pp $-660	-0.5pp $-747	base $-836	+0.5pp $-927	+1.0pp $-1,019

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,498
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14403 Daniel Shores Dr Texas City, TX	4.0	3.5	1832	$2,650	$1.45	0d	1	0.34mi
3114 Freeboard Dr Texas City, TX	4.0	3.0	2258	$3,000	$1.33	0d	1	0.35mi
2128 Port Jackson Dr La Marque, TX	3.0	2.0	1754	$2,200	$1.25	134d	1	0.36mi
13817 Starboard Reach Dr Texas City, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.5	2268	$3,630	$1.60	0d	1	0.38mi
2122 Islawild Way Texas City, TX	3.0	2.0	1848	$2,100	$1.14	0d	1	0.79mi
13322 Sea Breeze Dr Texas City, TX	4.0	2.0	2051	$2,595	$1.27	34d	1	0.87mi
2600 Golden Palms Ln La Marque, TX	4.0	3.0	2411	$3,200	$1.33	109d	1	0.94mi
13017 Oleander Bay Ln Texas City, TX	5.0	3.5	2959	$2,850	$0.96	5d	1	1.02mi
13025 Dancing Reed Dr Texas City, TX	4.0	2.5	2100	$2,695	$1.28	43d	1	1.13mi
2602 Arbor Edge Xing Texas City, TX	4.0	3.0	2204	$2,700	$1.23	0d	1	1.31mi
612 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,189	$1.19	9d	1	1.33mi
628 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,949	$1.38	91d	1	1.35mi
640 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,269	$1.06	99d	1	1.36mi
333 Summer Horse Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,209	$1.20	91d	1	1.37mi
421 Palomino Stand Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,329	$1.09	104d	1	1.39mi
417 Palomino Stand Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,159	$1.17	50d	1	1.40mi
692 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,329	$1.09	121d	1	1.42mi
725 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1774	$2,211	$1.25	0d	1	1.43mi
725 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,949	$1.38	78d	1	1.43mi
301 Summer Horse Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,229	$1.04	69d	1	1.45mi
801 Painted Bison Dr La Marque, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,969	$1.39	86d	1	1.45mi
12524 Jetty Cv Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1803	$2,506	$1.39	163d	1	1.47mi
520 Red Dusk Paint Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,249	$1.05	80d	1	1.47mi
916 American Monarch Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,309	$1.08	108d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $349,990 Active 628 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $349,990 Active 627 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $349,990 Active 626 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $349,990 Active 625 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $349,990 Active 624 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $349,990 Active 622 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $349,990 Active 621 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $349,990 Active 620 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $349,990 Active 619 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $349,990 Active 618 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $349,990 Active 617 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $349,990 Active 616 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $349,990 Active 615 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $349,990 Active 614 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $349,990 Active 613 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $349,990 Active 612 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $349,990 Active 611 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $349,990 Active 610 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $349,990 Active 609 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $349,990 Active 608 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $349,990 Active 607 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $349,990 Active 606 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $349,990 Active 605 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $349,990 Active 604 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $349,990 Active 603 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $349,990 Active 602 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $349,990 Active 601 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $349,990 Active 600 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $349,990 Active 599 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $349,990 Active 598 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $349,990 Active 597 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $349,990 Active 596 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $349,990 Active 595 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $349,990 Active 594 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $349,990 Active 593 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $349,990 Active 592 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $349,990 Active 591 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $349,990 Active 590 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $349,990 Active 589 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $349,990 Active 588 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $349,990 Active 587 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $349,990 Active 586 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $349,990 Active 585 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $349,990 Active 584 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $349,990 Active 583 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $349,990 Active 582 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $349,990 Active 581 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $349,990 Active 580 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $349,990 Active 579 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $349,990 Active 578 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $10,878 · $906/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,878 · $906/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,173
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$10,878
• − Insurance: −$2,547
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,574
• − Management: −$2,574
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$16,186
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,885
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,148/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $10,850–$32,550 screening

This two-story home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a good kitchen, good bathrooms, and good exterior. The home is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates that could further increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Carpet can be outdated and may need replacement for a more modern look ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase convenience and property value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 31/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hughes Road El F TX #2,174/4,322 Nat'l #24,455/41,679 Middle Dunbar Middle F TX #1,341/1,662 Nat'l #11,105/14,009 High Dickinson H S F TX #880/1,632 Nat'l #8,877/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dickinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,318
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Texas City

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #907
• US rank: #16268

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Texas City, TX
• County: Galveston County · 390,640 people
• City population: 23,083
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,083
• Household income: $74,694
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 37% Hispanic / Latino 29% Black 26% Two or more races 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 1%
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.39%
• Current HPI: 236.0239
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-30 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2025-06-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-04-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-03-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-03-24 Listed $348,990 HARMLS
• 2025-03-19 Price Changed $348,990 HARMLS
• 2025-03-06 Price Changed $349,990 HARMLS
• 2025-02-18 Listed $349,990 Zillow
• 2025-02-11 Price Changed $352,990 HARMLS
• 2025-01-15 Price Changed $362,990 HARMLS
• 2024-12-17 Listed $372,490 HARMLS

Property tax history

+138.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,878 · +726.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.