3314 Sweet Home Rd · North Tonawanda, NY 14228

$269,990

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,010 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1964 0.86 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Three bedroom brick front home in Sweet Home School District. One car garage with breezeway room transitioning you to the large eat-in kitchen. Living room with hardwood floors that continue down the hallway and through each of the three bedrooms. Large full, dry basement. New Hot water tank within past 2 years. Backyard is huge (500ft deep) and provides a true, private country feel, complete with two 12' x 14' sheds and chicken coop! Just cosmetic updates to make this home shine. Offers will be reviewed on Tuesday 8/8 at 5PM

Key facts

• Incredible lot
• Fishing docks
• Trailer boat ramp

Tags

• BRICK RANCH
• INCREDIBLE LOT
• MULTI-USE TRAIL NETWORK
• TRAILER BOAT RAMP
• ACCESSIBLE KAYAK LAUNCH
• FISHING DOCKS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Trails/paths nearby

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: High-speed internet available; Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story; Resale property
• Construction: Brick construction; Asphalt roof; Poured foundation; Existing (built previously)
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Shed(s) / storage; Near public transit; Rectangular residential lot, 75 x 500

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop
• Bedrooms: 3 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Hardwood; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Eat-in kitchen; Full basement with sump pump; Laundry area in basement; 6 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-72 ($-866/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (4.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (16.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $226k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.0% in North Tonawanda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#30 in NY, #518 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+.
• Sweet Home Central School District (suburban): math 46% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #342 of 590 in NY (top 58%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $200k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $226,296 (16.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.15%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-48,318
• Equity at exit: $40,256

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-47,872
• Equity at exit: $23,344

Cash invested: $75,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14228

• Home prices YoY: -31.9%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,263 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$332 /mo · $3,979/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$475
• Net cashflow: $-72

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,354

Max offer price $257,235

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,498
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
157 Fairgreen Dr Unit Right side Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.5	1500	$2,300	$1.53	1d	1	0.39mi
1 Apollo Dr Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.5	988	$2,150	$2.18	16d	1	0.99mi
133 Sunshine Dr Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1300	$2,100	$1.62	16d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-07
   remarks 687-char remark
2. 2026-06-07
   listed $269,990 Pending 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,979 · $332/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,271 · $356/mo
• Expected delta: +$292/yr (+$24/mo · 7.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 17% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,156
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$3,979
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,172
• − Management: −$2,172
• − Depreciation: −$7,854
• Taxable loss: −$5,496
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,319
• After-tax cash flow: $453/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sweet Home Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3628500
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,509
• Composite: 44.67/100
• National rank: #2765
• State rank: #342 of 590 in NY

Livability — North Tonawanda

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #518

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime A Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 44,241
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 25,350
• Household income: $74,871
• Rent vs Own: 46.9% rent · 53.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1566.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Asian 13% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Chinese 6% Other Indo-European 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -148.08%
• Current HPI: 316.3097
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+50.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-06-03 Listed $269,990 WNYREIS
• 2023-10-10 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records
• 2023-10-03 Sold (MLS) $200,000 WNYREIS
• 2023-08-09 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2023-08-01 Listed $179,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,979 · -19.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.