7809 State Road 158 · Bedford, IN 47421

$78,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1930 0.45 ac lot $54/sqft · 71% below area ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Country Living with Endless Potential! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers 1,456 sq ft of space and is full of opportunity for the right buyer with a vision. Featuring a durable metal roof installed just 7 years ago, this home has great bones and is ready to be brought back to life. Situated on nearly half an acre, the property provides plenty of room to spread out and enjoy peaceful country surroundings, with a covered front porch. You’ll also appreciate the convenience of two driveways and a 1.5-car detached garage—perfect for extra parking, storage, or a workshop.

Key facts

• Two driveways
• Metal roof
• Detached garage

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• TWO DRIVEWAYS
• DETACHED GARAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached off-street garage (approximately 1.5 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence (site-built); One-story
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Level lot; Irregular lot dimensions

Interior

• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Window-unit cooling
• Interior features: Partial basement; Six total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $78k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $576 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $78k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.1% vs local median 4.2% in Bedford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#23 in IN, #1,958 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, commute F.
• North Lawrence Community Schools (rural): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #170 of 301 in IN (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Parkview Elementary School (math 44% / reading 39%, grade F, #478 of 994 statewide, top 49%, 513 students, 63% FRL); Bedford Middle School (math 23% / reading 36%, grade F, #212 of 330 statewide, top 67%, 562 students, 54% FRL); Bedford-North Lawrence High School (math 38% / reading 63%, grade D+, #117 of 369 statewide, top 32%, 1,303 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: 158 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $543 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lawrence County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $77,322 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.45%
• DSCR: 2.40
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $267,911
• List price: $78,500
• Delta: -70.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7809 State Road 158	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,456 (0%)	0mo	$79,500	$55	100
7519 State Rd 158	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,521 (+4%)	3mo	$280,000	$184	71
77 South Hill Dr Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,452 (-0%)	14mo	$249,000	$171	64
223 Northern Hills Dr	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,493 (+2%)	12mo	$265,000	$177	51
7513 State Rd 158	0.32mi	3/2.5	1,640 (+13%)	19mo	$318,000	$194	42
548 State Road 458	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,612 (+11%)	11mo	$205,000	$127	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.09×
• Total profit: $23,949
• Equity at exit: $11,705

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.09×
• Total profit: $68,004
• Equity at exit: $6,787

Cash invested: $21,980 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 47421

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Active inventory: 158
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,325 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$412
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $312/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $576

Break-even live

Break-even rent $595

Max offer price $78,500

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $621	-5% $598	+0% $576	+5% $554	+10% $532
Rent	-10% $471	-5% $524	+0% $576	+5% $628	+10% $681
Rate	-1.0pp $616	-0.5pp $596	base $576	+0.5pp $556	+1.0pp $535

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,625
• Closing costs: $2,355
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $78,500 Pending 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $78,500 Active Under Contract 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $78,500 Active Under Contract 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $78,500 Active Under Contract 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $78,500 Active Under Contract 21 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $78,500 Active Under Contract 20 DOM
7. 2026-05-30
   days on market $78,500 Active Under Contract 19 DOM
8. 2026-05-11
   listed $78,500 Active 585-char remark
9. 2026-01-02
   historical Active Under Contract
10. 2025-12-30
    listed $79,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $312 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $490 · $41/mo
• Expected delta: +$178/yr (+$15/mo · 56.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,896
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,397
• − Property taxes: −$312
• − Insurance: −$392
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,272
• − Management: −$1,272
• − Depreciation: −$2,284
• Taxable income: $5,967
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,432
• After-tax cash flow: $5,481/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Lawrence Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 1807860
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $44,566
• Composite: 31.88/100
• National rank: #5864
• State rank: #170 of 301 in IN

Livability — Bedford

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #23
• US rank: #1958

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lawrence County · 27,599 people
• City population: 27,599
• Metro: Bedford, IN
• Population (ZIP): 27,599
• Household income: $68,108
• Rent vs Own: 20.0% rent · 80.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 507.0

Population outlook (Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,347 people
• By 2030: 43,331 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 40,887 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 38,297 · -13.6%
• By 2075: 32,479 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 26,051 · -41.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lawrence

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 23.6% · R 74.6% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.5pp toward R · 2008: -20.6pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+50.6 2016: R+51.5 2012: R+32.8 2008: R+20.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.32%
• Current HPI: 240.959
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Bedford, IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

-1.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Pending — IRMLS
• 2026-05-20 Contingent — IRMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $78,500 IRMLS
• 2026-01-02 Contingent — IRMLS
• 2025-12-30 Listed $79,900 IRMLS

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $312 · -2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.