534 S Little Bear Trl #6 · Sierra Vista, AZ 85635

$108,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · Manufactured · 297 Days on market

Built 1996 Good condition $69/sqft · 6% below area Est $116k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRICE REDUCED - Beautifully maintained, FRESHLY UPDATED - Seller Motivated, 3 bedroom, 2 bath home with large rooms, walk-in closets and laminate flooring throughout. Walk-in handicapped shower in primary bath, Beautiful Wood Burning Fire Place in Living/Great Room area. LED Lights throughout home . Sit on this gorgeous Wrap Around Deck with ramp access and enjoy the AMAZING Mountain Views, Arizona Sunset, or bird-watching. Workshop/craft room off of back deck. Large shed, chain link fence in back, sits on leased land within a park. Park sports 2 Swimming Pools, one indoor & outdoor, heated, and a Hot Tub, Club house, overflow parking, Dog Park, Gym, Library and more. This is a great community to live in.

Key facts

• Workshop craft room
• Walk-in closet
• Wrap around deck

Tags

• WALK-IN CLOSET
• WRAP AROUND DECK
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• WORKSHOP CRAFT ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $108k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $915 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $108k).
• Recommended offer: $95k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.5% vs local median 4.3% in Sierra Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#5 in AZ, #1,805 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Sierra Vista Unified District (4175) (urban): math 27% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #93 of 249 in AZ (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 176 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 437 units permitted in Cochise County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $747 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cochise County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $30k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 297 days — a 12% lower offer ($95k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $108k implies a 80% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $95,040 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 297 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.95% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.30%
• DSCR: 2.62
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $115,500
• List price: $108,000
• Delta: -6.49%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
642 S Little Bear Trl	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+0%)	10mo	$125,000	$80	86
708 S Shallow Brook Loop	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+0%)	12mo	$125,000	$80	86
615 S Shallow Brook Loop #219	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-3%)	6mo	$126,000	$83	85
668 S Lazy Beaver Way	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+0%)	10mo	$122,000	$78	84
225 S Knee Deep Loop #233	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-7%)	4mo	$162,000	$111	79
698 S Deer Creek Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-8%)	5mo	$82,000	$57	75
547 S Little Bear Trl	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+15%)	2mo	$88,000	$49	72
484 S Little Bear Trl	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,674 (+7%)	10mo	$62,500	$37	72
716 S Shallow Brook Loop	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+8%)	12mo	$169,000	$101	67
275 S Chase St St	0.27mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,701 (+9%)	12mo	$110,000	$65	57
306 N Central Ave	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-8%)	5mo	$124,000	$86	55
525 N Central Ave	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (-2%)	10mo	$174,900	$114	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.15×
• Total profit: $34,637
• Equity at exit: $16,103

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.70×
• Total profit: $81,505
• Equity at exit: $9,338

Cash invested: $30,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85635

• Home prices YoY: -32.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 176
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,103 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$566
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$135 /mo · $1,620/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $915

Break-even live

Break-even rent $945

Max offer price $108,000

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,000
• Closing costs: $3,240
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
526 S Clubhouse Ln Sierra Vista, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1574	$2,750	$1.75	43d	3	0.19mi
5396 Desert Shadows Dr Sierra Vista, AZ	4.0	2.0	1365	$1,550	$1.14	43d	1	0.92mi
5478 Waco Dr Sierra Vista, AZ	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,600	$1.07	43d	1	0.97mi
5330 Sonora St Sierra Vista, AZ	3.0	2.0	1330	$1,425	$1.07	43d	1	1.10mi
1415 Plaza Seca Sierra Vista, AZ	3.0	2.0	1656	$1,700	$1.03	43d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $108,000 Active 297 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $108,000 Active 296 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $108,000 Active 295 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $108,000 Active 294 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $116,500 Active 293 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $116,500 Active 291 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $116,500 Active 290 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,900 Active 287 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,900 Active 286 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,900 Active 285 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $119,900 Active 282 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,900 Active 281 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,900 Active 280 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,900 Active 279 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,900 Active 278 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $119,900 Active 277 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    historical Contract Contingent on Buyer Sale 718-char remark

    Show marketing remark (718 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED - Beautifully maintained, FRESHLY UPDATED - Seller Motivated, 3 bedroom, 2 bath home with large rooms, walk-in closets and laminate flooring throughout. Walk-in handicapped shower in primary bath, Beautiful Wood Burning Fire Place in Living/Great Room area. LED Lights throughout home . Sit on this gorgeous Wrap Around Deck with ramp access and enjoy the AMAZING Mountain Views, Arizona Sunset, or bird-watching. Workshop/craft room off of back deck. Large shed, chain link fence in back, sits on leased land within a park. Park sports 2 Swimming Pools, one indoor & outdoor, heated, and a Hot Tub, Club house, overflow parking, Dog Park, Gym, Library and more. This is a great community to live in.

18. 2026-05-04
    price $124,000
19. 2026-05-03
    price $124,000 718-char remark

    Show marketing remark (718 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED - Beautifully maintained, FRESHLY UPDATED - Seller Motivated, 3 bedroom, 2 bath home with large rooms, walk-in closets and laminate flooring throughout. Walk-in handicapped shower in primary bath, Beautiful Wood Burning Fire Place in Living/Great Room area. LED Lights throughout home . Sit on this gorgeous Wrap Around Deck with ramp access and enjoy the AMAZING Mountain Views, Arizona Sunset, or bird-watching. Workshop/craft room off of back deck. Large shed, chain link fence in back, sits on leased land within a park. Park sports 2 Swimming Pools, one indoor & outdoor, heated, and a Hot Tub, Club house, overflow parking, Dog Park, Gym, Library and more. This is a great community to live in.

20. 2026-03-30
    price $124,500

    Show marketing remark (718 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED - Beautifully maintained, FRESHLY UPDATED - Seller Motivated, 3 bedroom, 2 bath home with large rooms, walk-in closets and laminate flooring throughout. Walk-in handicapped shower in primary bath, Beautiful Wood Burning Fire Place in Living/Great Room area. LED Lights throughout home . Sit on this gorgeous Wrap Around Deck with ramp access and enjoy the AMAZING Mountain Views, Arizona Sunset, or bird-watching. Workshop/craft room off of back deck. Large shed, chain link fence in back, sits on leased land within a park. Park sports 2 Swimming Pools, one indoor & outdoor, heated, and a Hot Tub, Club house, overflow parking, Dog Park, Gym, Library and more. This is a great community to live in.

21. 2026-03-30
    price $124,500 718-char remark

    Show marketing remark (718 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED - Beautifully maintained, FRESHLY UPDATED - Seller Motivated, 3 bedroom, 2 bath home with large rooms, walk-in closets and laminate flooring throughout. Walk-in handicapped shower in primary bath, Beautiful Wood Burning Fire Place in Living/Great Room area. LED Lights throughout home . Sit on this gorgeous Wrap Around Deck with ramp access and enjoy the AMAZING Mountain Views, Arizona Sunset, or bird-watching. Workshop/craft room off of back deck. Large shed, chain link fence in back, sits on leased land within a park. Park sports 2 Swimming Pools, one indoor & outdoor, heated, and a Hot Tub, Club house, overflow parking, Dog Park, Gym, Library and more. This is a great community to live in.

22. 2026-03-01
    listed $125,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (718 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED - Beautifully maintained, FRESHLY UPDATED - Seller Motivated, 3 bedroom, 2 bath home with large rooms, walk-in closets and laminate flooring throughout. Walk-in handicapped shower in primary bath, Beautiful Wood Burning Fire Place in Living/Great Room area. LED Lights throughout home . Sit on this gorgeous Wrap Around Deck with ramp access and enjoy the AMAZING Mountain Views, Arizona Sunset, or bird-watching. Workshop/craft room off of back deck. Large shed, chain link fence in back, sits on leased land within a park. Park sports 2 Swimming Pools, one indoor & outdoor, heated, and a Hot Tub, Club house, overflow parking, Dog Park, Gym, Library and more. This is a great community to live in.

23. 2026-03-01
    price $125,000 718-char remark

    Show marketing remark (718 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED - Beautifully maintained, FRESHLY UPDATED - Seller Motivated, 3 bedroom, 2 bath home with large rooms, walk-in closets and laminate flooring throughout. Walk-in handicapped shower in primary bath, Beautiful Wood Burning Fire Place in Living/Great Room area. LED Lights throughout home . Sit on this gorgeous Wrap Around Deck with ramp access and enjoy the AMAZING Mountain Views, Arizona Sunset, or bird-watching. Workshop/craft room off of back deck. Large shed, chain link fence in back, sits on leased land within a park. Park sports 2 Swimming Pools, one indoor & outdoor, heated, and a Hot Tub, Club house, overflow parking, Dog Park, Gym, Library and more. This is a great community to live in.

24. 2026-02-01
    price $132,500 718-char remark

    Show marketing remark (718 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED - Beautifully maintained, FRESHLY UPDATED - Seller Motivated, 3 bedroom, 2 bath home with large rooms, walk-in closets and laminate flooring throughout. Walk-in handicapped shower in primary bath, Beautiful Wood Burning Fire Place in Living/Great Room area. LED Lights throughout home . Sit on this gorgeous Wrap Around Deck with ramp access and enjoy the AMAZING Mountain Views, Arizona Sunset, or bird-watching. Workshop/craft room off of back deck. Large shed, chain link fence in back, sits on leased land within a park. Park sports 2 Swimming Pools, one indoor & outdoor, heated, and a Hot Tub, Club house, overflow parking, Dog Park, Gym, Library and more. This is a great community to live in.

25. 2025-10-05
    price $155,000 718-char remark

    Show marketing remark (718 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED - Beautifully maintained, FRESHLY UPDATED - Seller Motivated, 3 bedroom, 2 bath home with large rooms, walk-in closets and laminate flooring throughout. Walk-in handicapped shower in primary bath, Beautiful Wood Burning Fire Place in Living/Great Room area. LED Lights throughout home . Sit on this gorgeous Wrap Around Deck with ramp access and enjoy the AMAZING Mountain Views, Arizona Sunset, or bird-watching. Workshop/craft room off of back deck. Large shed, chain link fence in back, sits on leased land within a park. Park sports 2 Swimming Pools, one indoor & outdoor, heated, and a Hot Tub, Club house, overflow parking, Dog Park, Gym, Library and more. This is a great community to live in.

26. 2025-08-26
    listed $160,000 Active 718-char remark

    Show marketing remark (718 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED - Beautifully maintained, FRESHLY UPDATED - Seller Motivated, 3 bedroom, 2 bath home with large rooms, walk-in closets and laminate flooring throughout. Walk-in handicapped shower in primary bath, Beautiful Wood Burning Fire Place in Living/Great Room area. LED Lights throughout home . Sit on this gorgeous Wrap Around Deck with ramp access and enjoy the AMAZING Mountain Views, Arizona Sunset, or bird-watching. Workshop/craft room off of back deck. Large shed, chain link fence in back, sits on leased land within a park. Park sports 2 Swimming Pools, one indoor & outdoor, heated, and a Hot Tub, Club house, overflow parking, Dog Park, Gym, Library and more. This is a great community to live in.

27. 2020-04-16
    soldstatus $60,000
28. 2020-03-01
    listed $59,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,234
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,050
• − Property taxes: −$1,620
• − Insurance: −$540
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,019
• − Management: −$2,019
• − Depreciation: −$3,142
• Taxable income: $9,845
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,363
• After-tax cash flow: $8,616/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained mobile home is in good condition with cosmetic updates needed. It offers a great location with mountain views and community amenities.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Painting — Fresh paint can make the home look more appealing
• Both Appliances — Upgrading appliances can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Painting — Fresh paint can make the home look more appealing ↑
• Both Appliances — Upgrading appliances can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sierra Vista Unified District (4175)
• NCES district ID: 0401460
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,463
• Composite: 29.17/100
• National rank: #6573
• State rank: #93 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Sierra Vista

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #1805

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sierra Vista, AZ
• County: Cochise County · 49,069 people
• City population: 49,069
• Metro: Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 34,193
• Household income: $61,580
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1129.0

Population outlook (Cochise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 113,402 people
• By 2030: 106,197 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 92,166 · -18.7%
• By 2050: 79,805 · -29.6%
• By 2075: 56,831 · -49.9%
• By 2100: 35,103 · -69.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 17% Black 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 14% Korean 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cochise

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 37.8% · R 61.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: -20.7pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+24.0 2008: R+20.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.93%
• Current HPI: 175.5821
• Rent YoY: ▬ 0.00%
• Metro: Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+110.2% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $124,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $124,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $124,500 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $124,500 ARMLS
• 2026-03-01 Listed $125,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-01 Price Changed $125,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-01 Price Changed $132,500 ARMLS
• 2025-10-05 Price Changed $155,000 ARMLS
• 2025-08-26 Listed $160,000 ARMLS
• 2020-04-16 Sold (MLS) $60,000 ARMLS
• 2020-03-01 Listed $59,000 ARMLS