7009 Brazos Trl · Horseshoe Bend, TX 76087

$75,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,016 sqft · Manufactured public records · 86 Days on market

Built 2013 8,581 sqft lot $74/sqft · 46% below area Est $139k · 46% under ↓ 49% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Small home on coner lot in Horshoe Bend community - could be full time living or weekend get away. Brazos river access. Wheelchair ramp. Fenced backyard. Open concept kitchen, dining and living area. Bathroom has entry from living room and also primary bedroom. Large utility - laundry room. HUD owned property, case #513-252043. FHA Financing Options: FHA Insured With Escrow (IE). HUD homes are sold AS IS without any seller guarantee or warranty. All listing info deemed reliable but not guaranteed - sources include public records - buyer shall independently research and verify all info that may impact purchase decision.

Key facts

• Brazos river access
• Fenced backyard
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• BRAZOS RIVER ACCESS
• FENCED BACKYARD
• LARGE UTILITY LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $216 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,388 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Weatherford ISD (town): math 39% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #321 of 826 in TX (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 649 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 437 units permitted in Parker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Parker County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (35%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.71%
• DSCR: 2.63
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $138,798
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: -45.96%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
116 Lockheed Trl	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	960 (-6%)	11mo	$60,000	$63	40
157 Pawnee Trl	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (+10%)	14mo	$240,000	$214	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.73% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-1,641
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $3,642
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76087

• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 649
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,606 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$202 /mo · $2,420/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $216

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,333

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 626-char remark

   Show marketing remark (626 chars)

   Small home on coner lot in Horshoe Bend community - could be full time living or weekend get away. Brazos river access. Wheelchair ramp. Fenced backyard. Open concept kitchen, dining and living area. Bathroom has entry from living room and also primary bedroom. Large utility - laundry room. HUD owned property, case #513-252043. FHA Financing Options: FHA Insured With Escrow (IE). HUD homes are sold AS IS without any seller guarantee or warranty. All listing info deemed reliable but not guaranteed - sources include public records - buyer shall independently research and verify all info that may impact purchase decision.

2. 2026-04-30
   price $75,000 626-char remark

   Show marketing remark (626 chars)

   Small home on coner lot in Horshoe Bend community - could be full time living or weekend get away. Brazos river access. Wheelchair ramp. Fenced backyard. Open concept kitchen, dining and living area. Bathroom has entry from living room and also primary bedroom. Large utility - laundry room. HUD owned property, case #513-252043. FHA Financing Options: FHA Insured With Escrow (IE). HUD homes are sold AS IS without any seller guarantee or warranty. All listing info deemed reliable but not guaranteed - sources include public records - buyer shall independently research and verify all info that may impact purchase decision.

3. 2026-04-24
   status Active 626-char remark

   Show marketing remark (626 chars)

   Small home on coner lot in Horshoe Bend community - could be full time living or weekend get away. Brazos river access. Wheelchair ramp. Fenced backyard. Open concept kitchen, dining and living area. Bathroom has entry from living room and also primary bedroom. Large utility - laundry room. HUD owned property, case #513-252043. FHA Financing Options: FHA Insured With Escrow (IE). HUD homes are sold AS IS without any seller guarantee or warranty. All listing info deemed reliable but not guaranteed - sources include public records - buyer shall independently research and verify all info that may impact purchase decision.

4. 2026-02-27
   status Pending 626-char remark

   Show marketing remark (626 chars)

   Small home on coner lot in Horshoe Bend community - could be full time living or weekend get away. Brazos river access. Wheelchair ramp. Fenced backyard. Open concept kitchen, dining and living area. Bathroom has entry from living room and also primary bedroom. Large utility - laundry room. HUD owned property, case #513-252043. FHA Financing Options: FHA Insured With Escrow (IE). HUD homes are sold AS IS without any seller guarantee or warranty. All listing info deemed reliable but not guaranteed - sources include public records - buyer shall independently research and verify all info that may impact purchase decision.

5. 2026-02-23
   price $83,000 626-char remark

   Show marketing remark (626 chars)

   Small home on coner lot in Horshoe Bend community - could be full time living or weekend get away. Brazos river access. Wheelchair ramp. Fenced backyard. Open concept kitchen, dining and living area. Bathroom has entry from living room and also primary bedroom. Large utility - laundry room. HUD owned property, case #513-252043. FHA Financing Options: FHA Insured With Escrow (IE). HUD homes are sold AS IS without any seller guarantee or warranty. All listing info deemed reliable but not guaranteed - sources include public records - buyer shall independently research and verify all info that may impact purchase decision.

6. 2026-01-30
   price $97,750 626-char remark

   Show marketing remark (626 chars)

   Small home on coner lot in Horshoe Bend community - could be full time living or weekend get away. Brazos river access. Wheelchair ramp. Fenced backyard. Open concept kitchen, dining and living area. Bathroom has entry from living room and also primary bedroom. Large utility - laundry room. HUD owned property, case #513-252043. FHA Financing Options: FHA Insured With Escrow (IE). HUD homes are sold AS IS without any seller guarantee or warranty. All listing info deemed reliable but not guaranteed - sources include public records - buyer shall independently research and verify all info that may impact purchase decision.

7. 2025-12-24
   listed $115,000 Active 626-char remark

   Show marketing remark (626 chars)

   Small home on coner lot in Horshoe Bend community - could be full time living or weekend get away. Brazos river access. Wheelchair ramp. Fenced backyard. Open concept kitchen, dining and living area. Bathroom has entry from living room and also primary bedroom. Large utility - laundry room. HUD owned property, case #513-252043. FHA Financing Options: FHA Insured With Escrow (IE). HUD homes are sold AS IS without any seller guarantee or warranty. All listing info deemed reliable but not guaranteed - sources include public records - buyer shall independently research and verify all info that may impact purchase decision.

8. 2022-08-12
   soldstatus Closed 284-char remark

   Show marketing remark (284 chars)

   Ideal property for full time living or weekend get away with Brazos river access. Fresh paint and new carpet makes this home ready to enjoy. Neighborhood amenities include golf course, clubhouse, boat ramp and riding arena available for use with no HOA and only a small monthly fee.

9. 2022-08-05
   soldstatus
10. 2022-07-14
    historical Active Contingent 284-char remark

    Show marketing remark (284 chars)

    Ideal property for full time living or weekend get away with Brazos river access. Fresh paint and new carpet makes this home ready to enjoy. Neighborhood amenities include golf course, clubhouse, boat ramp and riding arena available for use with no HOA and only a small monthly fee.

11. 2022-06-25
    price $148,500 284-char remark

    Show marketing remark (284 chars)

    Ideal property for full time living or weekend get away with Brazos river access. Fresh paint and new carpet makes this home ready to enjoy. Neighborhood amenities include golf course, clubhouse, boat ramp and riding arena available for use with no HOA and only a small monthly fee.

12. 2022-06-20
    status Active 284-char remark

    Show marketing remark (284 chars)

    Ideal property for full time living or weekend get away with Brazos river access. Fresh paint and new carpet makes this home ready to enjoy. Neighborhood amenities include golf course, clubhouse, boat ramp and riding arena available for use with no HOA and only a small monthly fee.

13. 2022-06-08
    historical Active Contingent 284-char remark

    Show marketing remark (284 chars)

    Ideal property for full time living or weekend get away with Brazos river access. Fresh paint and new carpet makes this home ready to enjoy. Neighborhood amenities include golf course, clubhouse, boat ramp and riding arena available for use with no HOA and only a small monthly fee.

14. 2022-05-26
    listed $146,000 Active 284-char remark

    Show marketing remark (284 chars)

    Ideal property for full time living or weekend get away with Brazos river access. Fresh paint and new carpet makes this home ready to enjoy. Neighborhood amenities include golf course, clubhouse, boat ramp and riding arena available for use with no HOA and only a small monthly fee.

15. 2012-09-05
    soldstatus
16. 2005-11-15
    soldstatus
17. 1999-06-10
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,420 · $202/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,420 · $202/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,270
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$2,420
• − Insurance: −$5,494
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,542
• − Management: −$1,542
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $1,890
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$454
• After-tax cash flow: $2,136/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Weatherford ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844800
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,087
• Composite: 36.4/100
• National rank: #4679
• State rank: #321 of 826 in TX

Livability — Horseshoe Bend

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #1388
• US rank: #23802

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Horseshoe Bend, TX
• County: Parker County · 144,797 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,822
• Household income: $114,306
• Rent vs Own: 15.7% rent · 84.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 497.0

Population outlook (Parker County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 147,426 people
• By 2030: 157,863 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 177,519 · +20.4%
• By 2050: 194,786 · +32.1%
• By 2075: 238,799 · +62.0%
• By 2100: 264,126 · +79.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Parker

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.4) · D 16.4% · R 82.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -55.2pp · 2024: -66.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.4 2020: R+64.4 2016: R+67.5 2012: R+65.8 2008: R+55.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -172.16%
• Current HPI: 214.6694
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.73%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-48.6% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $75,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-24 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-02-27 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $83,000 NTREIS
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $97,750 NTREIS
• 2025-12-24 Listed $115,000 NTREIS
• 2022-08-12 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2022-08-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-07-14 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2022-06-25 Price Changed $148,500 NTREIS
• 2022-06-20 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2022-06-08 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2022-05-26 Listed $146,000 NTREIS
• 2012-09-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-11-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-06-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+23.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,420 · -4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.