🏷️ Likely Rental
144 Craig Ave · Fairbanks, AK
Flood risk 7/10 · Major
- FEMA flood zone
- X
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.76%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $473 – $860
Fire risk No data
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- —
Heat risk No data
- Hot days now (above threshold)
- —
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- —
Wind risk No data
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- —
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- —
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +27.3/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- DSCR +9.5/10.0
- 1% rule +7.4/10.0
- Schools +3.2/10.0
- Rent growth +2.9/5.0
- Livability +2.9/5.0
- Condition / age +2.2/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$339,900
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Multi-family units
County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records
Listing remarks
Investment opportunity in the Hamilton Ave neighborhood! Here is a great chance to own a property with rental income and potential right in the heart of town. Each 3 bedroom unit has it's own garage space and washer/dryer. Rents are $1,900 and $2,000/month. Landlord pays all utilities only one meter. Long term tenants currently month to month each.
Key facts
- 7,427 sq ft lot
- 2 garage spots
- Built 1984
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 6-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $340k. Condition is rated fair.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $929 ($11k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $340k).
- Recommended offer: $330k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 4.9% in Fairbanks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 57/100 on livability (#95 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
- Fairbanks North Star Borough School District (urban): math 33% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #10 of 21 in AK (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 134 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1 units permitted in Fairbanks North Star Borough in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
- At $4,222/mo this rent would consume 67% of the median local household income ($76k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Fairbanks North Star County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($330k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
- Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
- What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.24% ✓
- Cap rate
- 9.77%
- Cash-on-cash
- 12.41%
- DSCR
- 1.55
- GRM
- 6.7
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $429,124
- List price
- $339,900
- Delta
- -20.79%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 286 le Ann Dr | 0.24mi | 5/3.0 (-1) | 2,440 (-2%) | 2mo | $339,950 | $139 | 75 |
| 350 Carlton Dr | 0.45mi | 6/2.0 | 2,576 (+3%) | 22mo | $315,000 | $122 | 56 |
| 417/419 Baranof Ave | 0.33mi | 6/3.5 | 2,744 (+10%) | 14mo | $399,900 | $146 | 50 |
| 82 D St | 0.55mi | 6/4.0 | 2,794 (+12%) | 17mo | $200,000 | $72 | 32 |
| 1316 Joyce Dr | 0.51mi | 5/4.0 (-1) | 2,158 (-14%) | 14mo | $459,990 | $213 | 29 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 1.62% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -0.4%
- Equity multiple
- 0.98×
- Total profit
- $-1,594
- Equity at exit
- $50,680
- IRR
- 7.7%
- Equity multiple
- 1.55×
- Total profit
- $52,123
- Equity at exit
- $29,388
Cash invested: $95,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Alaska
- 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 1 active
- Months of supply
- 6.0 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $420,000 ($195/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 32 d
- This list price
- lowest-priced of the active set
- ARV vs active asking
- -12.0% vs current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 99701
- Home prices YoY
- -19.4%
- Rents YoY
- 1.6%
- Active inventory
- 134
- Price-to-rent
- 13.4×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $4,222 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,782
- Tax from tax record
- −$427 /mo · $5,121/yr
- Insurance
- −$142
- Flood insurance flood zone
- −$56 /mo · $666/yr
- HOA
- −$0
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$887
- Net cashflow
- $929
2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)
| Units | Beds | Baths | Est. rent |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2× units | 3 | 1 | $4,222 |
| #1 | 3 | 1 | $2,111 |
| #2 | 3 | 1 | $2,111 |
| Total (2 units) | $4,222 | ||
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $1,121 | -5% $1,025 | +0% $929 | +5% $833 | +10% $737 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $595 | -5% $762 | +0% $929 | +5% $1,096 | +10% $1,263 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $1,100 | -0.5pp $1,015 | base $929 | +0.5pp $841 | +1.0pp $751 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $84,975
- Closing costs
- $10,197
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 3 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 635 10th Ave Unit 5 Fairbanks, AK | 3.0 | 2.0 | — | $2,195 | — | 93d | 1 | 1.21mi |
| 910 4th Ave Fairbanks, AK | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1048 | $1,700 | $1.62 | 93d | 1 | 1.34mi |
| 4268 Neely Rd Fort Wainwright, AK | 3.0–4.0 | 2.5 | 2138 | $2,106 | $0.99 | 93d | 1 | 1.42mi |
Listing history 32 events
-
2026-07-03days on market $339,900 Active 49 DOM
-
2026-07-02days on market $339,900 Active 48 DOM
-
2026-07-01days on market $339,900 Active 47 DOM
-
2026-06-30days on market $339,900 Active 46 DOM
-
2026-06-29days on market $339,900 Active 45 DOM
-
2026-06-28days on market $339,900 Active 44 DOM
-
2026-06-28days on market $339,900 Active 43 DOM
-
2026-06-27days on market $339,900 Active 42 DOM
-
2026-06-26days on market $339,900 Active 41 DOM
-
2026-06-22days on market $339,900 Active 38 DOM
-
2026-06-21days on market $339,900 Active 37 DOM
-
2026-06-19days on market $339,900 Active 35 DOM
-
2026-06-18days on market $339,900 Active 34 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $339,900 Active 33 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $339,900 Active 32 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $339,900 Active 31 DOM
-
2026-06-14days on market $339,900 Active 29 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $339,900 Active 28 DOM
-
2026-06-10days on market $339,900 Active 26 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $339,900 Active 25 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $339,900 Active 24 DOM
-
2026-06-05days on market $339,900 Active 20 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $339,900 Active 19 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $339,900 Active 18 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $339,900 Active 17 DOM
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2026-05-31days on market $339,900 Active 16 DOM
-
2026-05-30days on market $339,900 Active 15 DOM
-
2026-05-16$339,900 Active 350-char remark
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2018-04-20$244,900
-
2010-09-24soldstatus
-
2009-08-12soldstatus
-
2007-10-31soldstatus
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)
- Current annual tax
- $5,121 · $427/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $5,121 · $427/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 76% chance over 30 yrs
- Air quality 1/10 Low
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $50,664
- − Mortgage interest
- −$19,040
- − Property taxes
- −$5,121
- − Insurance
- −$2,366
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$4,053
- − Management
- −$4,053
- − Depreciation
- −$9,888
- Taxable income
- $6,143
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$1,474
- After-tax cash flow
- $9,674/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos
This multi-family property requires significant exterior repairs and maintenance, including roof and siding work, to improve its condition and value.
Deferred maintenance Est. $30,000–$90,000 screening
- Major Roof (roof) — The roof appears to be in poor condition with visible damage and missing shingles.
- Major Windows (windows) — The windows have visible damage and appear to be in poor condition.
- Major Exterior (exterior) — The exterior of the house shows significant wear and tear, with peeling paint and structural issues.
Repairs flagged
- Major roof — Significant damage visible
- Major exterior siding — Severe peeling and damage
- Major exterior paint — Significant peeling and damage
Value-add opportunities
- Both paint and repair exterior — Improves curb appeal and rental value ↑
- Both repair roof — Essential for structural integrity and rental value ↑
- Both landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and rental value ↑
ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.
Zoned Schools
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Fairbanks North Star Borough School District
- NCES district ID
- 0200600
- Math proficiency
- 33% ▼ -6.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 45% ▲ 3.00%
- Median HH income
- $69,697
- Composite
- 35.5/100
- National rank
- #4915
- State rank
- #10 of 21 in AK
Livability — Fairbanks
- Score
- 57/100
- State rank
- #95
- US rank
- #21394
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Fairbanks, AK
- County
- Fairbanks North Star Borough · 101,607 people
- City population
- 47,612
- Metro
- Fairbanks, AK
- Population (ZIP)
- 18,061
- Household income
- $75,668
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 9% of renters
Population outlook (Fairbanks North Star County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 101,607 people
- By 2030
- 102,796 · +1.2%
- By 2040
- 104,748 · +3.1%
- By 2050
- 107,598 · +5.9%
- By 2075
- 118,829 · +16.9%
- By 2100
- 127,151 · +25.1%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 59% Two or more races 14% Native American 12% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 6% Black 5%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 1%
- Common ancestry
- Italian 4% Slovak 3% Portuguese 3%
- Foreign-born
- 7% · South Korea, Canada, China
- Languages at home
- 86% English-only · Spanish 4% Korean 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%
Political lean MEDSL · Fairbanks North Star
- 2016 margin
- R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
- All cycles
- 2016: R+15.2
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -37.70%
- Current HPI
- 156.1921
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 1.62%
- Metro
- Fairbanks, AK
- State GDP YoY
- —
- F500 in state
- 0
Price history
4 events — show timeline
- 2018-04-20 Listed $244,900 AKMLS
- 2010-09-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
- 2009-08-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
- 2007-10-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
Property tax history
+2.9%/yrLatest (2025): $5,121 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…