68 Alcolade Dr E · Shirley, NY 11967

$300,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,146 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1960 0.28 ac lot Est $435k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 68 Alcolade Drive East in Shirley, NY. This is a fantastic opportunity for investors, contractors or buyers looking to add their personal touch to a home. This 3 bedroom, 1 bath ranch offers 1,146 square feet of living space and sits on a spacious 0.28 acre corner lot with plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors. This home features a functional layout with an attached 1.5-car garage and a large driveway capable of fitting up to four vehicles. The full unfinished basement offers tremendous potential for storage, a workshop space or future expansion and includes a walkout entrance to the backyard. The backyard provides ample space for entertaining, gardening or future improvements. Be

Key facts

• Unfinished basement
• Walkout entrance
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• WALKOUT ENTRANCE
• AMPLE SPACE FOR ENTERTAINING
• ROOM TO ENJOY THE OUTDOORS
• POTENTIAL FOR STORAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 1-car garage
• Utilities: Cesspool sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Unknown construction materials; Crawl attic; Unfinished basement with walk-out access
• Exterior features: Not waterfront; Construction materials: unknown

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bath; Eat-in kitchen; Washer/dryer hookup; Unfinished walk-out basement; Crawl attic; 7 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $642 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $300k).
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 4.8% in Shirley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#886 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• William Floyd Union Free School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #309 of 590 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Nathaniel Woodhull Elementary School (math 45% / reading 50%, grade D, #1,191 of 2,108 statewide, top 57%, 703 students, 54% FRL); William Paca Middle School (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #497 of 729 statewide, top 69%, 1,009 students, 59% FRL); William Floyd High School (math 65% / reading 87%, grade A-, #616 of 1,100 statewide, top 57%, 3,013 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: 183 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $300,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.18%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $435,480
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
33 Sherwood Dr	0.27mi	3/1.0	1,130 (-1%)	5mo	$440,000	$389	80
133 Parkwood Dr	0.32mi	3/1.0	1,082 (-6%)	8mo	$405,000	$374	69
117 Flower Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,252 (+9%)	8mo	$520,000	$415	64
27 Pinewood Dr	0.42mi	3/1.5	1,250 (+9%)	1mo	$598,000	$478	62
40 Pinewood Dr	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,050 (-8%)	5mo	$365,000	$348	59
15 Halewood Dr	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,260 (+10%)	8mo	$460,000	$365	59
56 Brushwood Dr	0.53mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,074 (-6%)	1mo	$360,000	$335	59
277 Commack Rd	0.52mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,200 (+5%)	5mo	$450,000	$375	59
20 Bogota Rd	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,088 (-5%)	3mo	$460,000	$423	57
344 Elm Rd W	0.71mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,092 (-5%)	1mo	$415,000	$380	54
16 Sagewood Dr	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-12%)	5mo	$375,000	$372	51
242 Bayview Dr	0.67mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,000 (-13%)	5mo	$422,000	$422	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-7,574
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $46,602
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11967

• Home prices YoY: -33.1%
• Active inventory: 183
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,589 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$494 /mo · $5,932/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$754
• Net cashflow: $642

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,775

Max offer price $300,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $812	-5% $727	+0% $642	+5% $557	+10% $473
Rent	-10% $359	-5% $501	+0% $642	+5% $784	+10% $926
Rate	-1.0pp $793	-0.5pp $719	base $642	+0.5pp $565	+1.0pp $486

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12 Hackensack Rd Mastic Beach, NY	3.0	1.0	792	$3,150	$3.98	17d	1	0.72mi
6 Fairview Dr Shirley, NY	4.0	2.0	1302	$4,299	$3.30	3d	1	0.93mi
192 Cypress Dr Mastic Beach, NY	4.0	2.0	1404	$3,800	$2.71	44d	1	1.19mi
67 Saint George Dr Shirley, NY	2.0	1.0	714	$2,750	$3.85	45d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $300,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,932 · $494/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,932 · $494/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,062
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$5,932
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,445
• − Management: −$3,445
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable income: $3,208
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$770
• After-tax cash flow: $6,938/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: William Floyd Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3618690
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $70,564
• Composite: 46.79/100
• National rank: #2383
• State rank: #309 of 590 in NY

Livability — Shirley

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #886
• US rank: #17184

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shirley, NY
• City population: 27,266
• Population (ZIP): 27,266

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 10% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -212.21%
• Current HPI: 428.8362
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $300,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,932 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.