414 292nd St E · South Creek, WA 98580

$149,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured · 36 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your brand new home in the heart of Roy! This beautiful 3 bed, 2 bath manufactured home is nestled in a peaceful all-ages community and offers the perfect blend of comfort and modern style. Step inside to an open floor plan filled with natural light, stylish kitchen with brand-new appliances, dining area and a cozy living space perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The spacious primary suite provides a private retreat with ensuite bath, while two additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, office space, or hobbies. Enjoy affordable, low-maintenance living in a friendly neighborhood setting.

Key facts

• 3 parking spots
• Built 2025
• Listed 36 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Senior exemption: not indicated; Buyer to verify schools and related info
• Financial info: Listing accepts Cash and Conventional financing; Land lease amount applies
• HOA & community: Located in Maple Manor park; Park approved for sale; Pets allowed: cats and dogs; Land lease payment applies

Exterior

• Parking: Open/uncovered parking; 3 open parking spaces
• Utilities: Electric service; Community water (managed by HOA); Septic managed by HOA; Power provided by TPU
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; American Freedom model; One story; Tie-down foundation; Mobile home remains in place; Wood skirt; Facing/detailed orientation not provided
• Construction: Wood construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Wood exterior; Wood products trim; Corner lot; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Stove/Range; Kitchen with eating space; Dining room adjacent
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 three-quarter bath (shower without full tub); 1 bathtub; 2 showers
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Water heater; Vaulted ceilings; Ceiling fan(s); Double-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Utility/laundry room; Electric water heater located in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $845 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 2.3% in South Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#491 in WA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Bethel School District (suburban): math 47% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #103 of 291 in WA (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 106 active listings in the ZIP; 3,209 units permitted in Pierce County in 2024 (1,269 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pierce County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $145,451 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.15%
• DSCR: 2.07
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $474,880
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
215 296th St S	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,144 (+2%)	8mo	$485,000	$424	68
29718 7th Ave E	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,182 (+6%)	11mo	$425,000	$360	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $29,563
• Equity at exit: $22,358

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.27×
• Total profit: $95,199
• Equity at exit: $12,965

Cash invested: $41,986 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98580

• Home prices YoY: -17.1%
• Active inventory: 106
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,382 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$187 /mo · $2,249/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$500
• Net cashflow: $845

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,312

Max offer price $149,950

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,488
• Closing costs: $4,498
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-10
   listed $149,950 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,578
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,400
• − Property taxes: −$2,249
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,286
• − Management: −$2,286
• − Depreciation: −$4,362
• Taxable income: $8,245
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,979
• After-tax cash flow: $8,163/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This brand-new manufactured home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. Staging and landscaping would further enhance its appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Staging — Staging enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping — Landscaping improves curb appeal and enhances the home's natural setting

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Staging — Staging enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Landscaping improves curb appeal and enhances the home's natural setting ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bethel School District
• NCES district ID: 5300480
• Math proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $65,872
• Composite: 48.66/100
• National rank: #4568
• State rank: #103 of 291 in WA

Livability — South Creek

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #491
• US rank: #20442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,472

Population outlook (Pierce County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 956,648 people
• By 2030: 1,010,862 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,113,170 · +16.4%
• By 2050: 1,206,524 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,436,425 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 1,563,654 · +63.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Italian 4% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pierce

• 2024 margin: D (+10.8) · D 53.9% · R 43.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 10.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.8 2020: D+11.2 2016: D+7.5 2012: D+11.0 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.93%
• Current HPI: 344.1901
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Listed $149,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid