3812 Infinity Run · The Villages, FL 32163

$349,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,390 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 2013 7,477 sqft lot Est $348k · at est. $204/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.2/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

LOCATION!! CLOSE TO BROWNWOOD SQUARE! This 3/2 Sandpiper Model Home in the Village of Hillsborough features an open, split-bedroom floor plan with vaulted ceilings and a covered front porch. TURNKEY Optional! Just 2 miles to Brownwood town center for shopping, dining and entertainment. 1 mile to Eisenhower Regional recreation center for activities and ½ mile to Hillsborough pool and mailbox station. Inside, you'll find luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout the main living areas, tile in the kitchen, and comfortable carpeting in the bedrooms. The living and dining rooms are enhanced with elegant chair rail detailing. Ceiling fans with light kits throughout the home. The kitchen is de

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Tile in the kitchen
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• OPEN SPLIT-BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• TILE IN THE KITCHEN
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• ENSUITE BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Irrigation equipment installed; Turnkey/furnished
• HOA & community: Community pool; Deed restrictions; Golf carts allowed; Irrigation with reclaimed water; Association amenities include basketball, fitness center, golf course, park, pickleball, racquetball, recreation facilities, shuffleboard, tennis, and trails; Association fees include pool and recreational facilities; Senior community; Pets allowed; Total monthly association fees: $204; Total annual association fees: $2,448; CDD present

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (22x21) with garage door opener; Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available and connected; Phone available; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces northeast; Residential zoning
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as Sandpiper model
• Exterior features: Front porch; Rear porch; Screened porch; Rain gutters; Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Mature landscaping; Paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; High ceilings; Open floor plan; Split bedroom layout; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets; Window treatments; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Inside utility

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-177 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $319k (8.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $295k (15.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $295k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 265 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $37k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $35k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$60k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $195k; list at $350k implies a 79% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $295,379 (15.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.17%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $347,500
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3810 Cosmos Way	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,501 (+8%)	10mo	$350,000	$233	74
3786 Infinity Run	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,561 (+12%)	15mo	$390,000	$250	64
2004 Flowersville Pl	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,589 (+14%)	1mo	$370,000	$233	62
3493 Habersham Ct	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,446 (+4%)	6mo	$438,000	$303	60
3481 Oldham Ln	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,504 (+8%)	2mo	$385,000	$256	56
5643 County Road 173	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,188 (-14%)	12mo	$154,500	$130	53
2080 Nordic Ln	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,559 (+12%)	15mo	$390,000	$250	53
3554 Marianna Pl	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,416 (+2%)	17mo	$410,000	$290	50
3459 Oldham Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,446 (+4%)	15mo	$420,000	$290	50
5212 Oxford Ct	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,501 (+8%)	17mo	$255,000	$170	39
3407 Melbourne Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,559 (+12%)	11mo	$394,000	$253	37
5559 Heritage Blvd	0.65mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-10%)	15mo	$148,495	$119	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.83×
• Total profit: $179,394
• Equity at exit: $315,218

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.48×
• Total profit: $537,351
• Equity at exit: $679,779

Cash invested: $97,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32163

• Home prices YoY: 9.8%
• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,954 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$326 /mo · $3,909/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$204
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$620
• Net cashflow: $-177

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,178

Max offer price $318,634

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,475
• Closing costs: $10,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2577 Lindewood St The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1206	$2,495	$2.07	21d	1	0.83mi
2910 Monument Way The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1494	$2,600	$1.74	21d	1	1.24mi
3394 Ridgewood Path The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1559	$4,000	$2.57	21d	1	1.31mi
3064 Gulfport Ct The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1602	$2,800	$1.75	21d	1	1.36mi
3480 Kewadin Ave The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1758	$2,500	$1.42	21d	1	1.36mi
3025 Bartow Ln The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1415	$3,500	$2.47	21d	1	1.42mi
6629 Dan DiCiolla Dr Wildwood, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1075	$2,399	$2.23	21d	44	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $204 · $2,448/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $349,900 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $349,900 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $349,900 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $349,900 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $349,900 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $349,900 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $349,900 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $349,900 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $349,900 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $349,900 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 692-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $349,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,909 · $326/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,909 · $326/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,445
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,600
• − Property taxes: −$3,909
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,836
• − Management: −$2,836
• − HOA: −$2,448
• − Depreciation: −$10,179
• Taxable loss: −$8,111
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,947
• After-tax cash flow: $-177/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Villages, FL
• County: Sumter County · 110,591 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• Population (ZIP): 28,549
• Household income: $96,775
• Rent vs Own: 5.7% rent · 94.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 307.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 20.47%
• Current HPI: 229.0075
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+55.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $349,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-02 Listed $429,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-06-10 Sold (Public Records) $195,000 Public Records
• 2015-04-02 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-01-05 Price Changed $209,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-10-02 Listed $224,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,909 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.