49122 Bedford Dr · Newberry Springs, CA 92365

$125,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 854 sqft · Manufactured · 164 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1982 20 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Two 10 acre parcels being sold together for a total of 20 acres and 3 manufactured homes. Manufactured homes are personal property, not on permanent foundation. No 433A, cash buyers only. This property offers wide-open desert views and endless potential. Enjoy the peace, privacy, and room for animals, toys, or future improvements, all while being a short drive from Barstow with easy access to major freeways. A great chance to own a slice of High Desert living!

Key facts

• 20 acre lot
• Room for animals
• Desert views

Tags

• 20 ACRE LOT
• DESERT VIEWS
• ROOM FOR ANIMALS
• EASY ACCESS TO MAJOR ROUTES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $146 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (10.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Silver Valley Unified (town): math 23% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #323 of 517 in CA (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Yermo Elementary (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,179 of 1,571 statewide, top 78%, 340 students, 83% FRL); Fort Irwin Middle (math 23% / reading 41%, grade F, #207 of 498 statewide, top 42%, 239 students, 40% FRL); Silver Valley High (math 37% / reading 67%, grade D+, #296 of 1,170 statewide, top 27%, 369 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 32% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 211 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $125k implies a 198% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.99%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $24,269
• Equity at exit: $56,205

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $73,343
• Equity at exit: $86,619

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92365

• Active inventory: 211
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,121 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$33 /mo · $390/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $146

Break-even live

Break-even rent $937

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $216	-5% $181	+0% $146	+5% $110	+10% $75
Rent	-10% $57	-5% $101	+0% $146	+5% $190	+10% $234
Rate	-1.0pp $209	-0.5pp $177	base $146	+0.5pp $113	+1.0pp $80

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $125,000 Active 164 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 163 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 160 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 159 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 158 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 157 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 155 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 154 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 151 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 150 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 149 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 146 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 145 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 144 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 143 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 142 DOM
17. 2026-01-14
    price $125,000 464-char remark

    Show marketing remark (464 chars)

    Two 10 acre parcels being sold together for a total of 20 acres and 3 manufactured homes. Manufactured homes are personal property, not on permanent foundation. No 433A, cash buyers only. This property offers wide-open desert views and endless potential. Enjoy the peace, privacy, and room for animals, toys, or future improvements, all while being a short drive from Barstow with easy access to major freeways. A great chance to own a slice of High Desert living!

18. 2026-01-09
    listed $115,000 Active 464-char remark

    Show marketing remark (464 chars)

    Two 10 acre parcels being sold together for a total of 20 acres and 3 manufactured homes. Manufactured homes are personal property, not on permanent foundation. No 433A, cash buyers only. This property offers wide-open desert views and endless potential. Enjoy the peace, privacy, and room for animals, toys, or future improvements, all while being a short drive from Barstow with easy access to major freeways. A great chance to own a slice of High Desert living!

19. 2015-05-01
    soldstatus $42,000
20. 1985-02-27
    soldstatus $10,000
21. 1983-08-08
    soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $390 · $33/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $950 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: +$560/yr (+$47/mo · 143.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,453
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$390
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,076
• − Management: −$1,076
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$353
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$85
• After-tax cash flow: $1,831/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Silver Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0636820
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $48,754
• Composite: 26.85/100
• National rank: #7105
• State rank: #323 of 517 in CA

Livability — Newberry Springs

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,514

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 20% Asian 8% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Dominican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 8% Vietnamese 2% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+1150.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $125,000 CRMLS
• 2026-01-09 Listed $115,000 CRMLS
• 2015-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records
• 1985-02-27 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records
• 1983-08-08 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $390 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.